High Wind Warning 3, NWS Honolulu, HI

000 
WWHW70 PHFO 251350
NPWHFO

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
350 AM HST SAT FEB 25 2006

...WIND NOT EXPECTED TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA...

.WHILE THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE
CRITERIA FOR A WARNING...AND ONLY TO APPROACH THE CRITERIA FOR A
WIND ADVISORY.

HIZ028-251500-
/O.CAN.PHFO.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-060226T1800Z/
BIG ISLAND SUMMITS-
350 AM HST SAT FEB 25 2006

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST FRI FEB 24 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING JET STREAM
WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT LOWER
LEVELS...LIGHT NORTHEAST TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS SHOWERS OVER
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS STARTING SUNDAY. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A PERSISTENT...MOIST
SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN APPROACHING JET STREAM FROM THE WEST IS USHERING IN A SWATH OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WHILE THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO PICK UP SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WEAK NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS FOCUSED
OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. FROM SUNDAY ON...HAVE MADE QUITE A
FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT BEING MAINTAINING
MOSTLY SKIES THROUGHOUT...AND INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS
OVER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS SPREADING OVER THE ISLANDS ON SUNDAY AS
LOWER LEVEL WINDS TURN SOUTHEAST...WHICH SETS UP A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR ALL SECTIONS BY THEN AS DOWNWIND CONVERGENCE ZONES OR
PLUMES TURN TOWARD THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THE MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN
RATHER COLD...SO WITH THE ADDITION OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL COME THE
THREAT FOR A FEW HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ONCE AGAIN. FOR TIME BEING...HAVE
KEPT MENTION OF HEAVIER SHOWERS LIMITED TO THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME...THOUGH THIS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY NEED SOME FINE TUNING LATER.

ONCE IT RETURNS...THE WETTER THAN NORMAL PATTERN APPEARS AS THOUGH
IT WILL LAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS KEEP THE ISLANDS
SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TRAILING AND OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR
SHEARLINE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH...AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE PRECISELY
WHERE THE BEST FORCING WILL BE THIS FAR OUT...BUT THE CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. AS STATED EARLIER...THE CURRENT GRIDS REFLECT A
MARKED INCREASE IN SKY COVER...AND A TREND TOWARD THE WET
DIRECTION. FOR THE TIME BEING HAVE LEFT OUT THUNDERSTORMS...AND HAVE
KEPT
MENTION OF HEAVIER SHOWERS LIMITED TO THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME. WILL FINE TUNE ONE WAY OR THE OTHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS...HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
STARTING LATE TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY UPPING THE CHANCE OF SNOW
OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AT SUMMIT ELEVATION. THE
APPROACHING JET WILL BRING INCREASING WEST WINDS THAT WILL LIKELY
REACH WARNING LEVELS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE UPGRADED THE WIND
ADVISORY TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE SUMMITS IN ANTICIPATION OF
THE EXPECTED INCREASE. THE STRONG WEST WINDS...AND THE FACT THAT THE
SUMMITS WILL LIKELY BE IN CLOUD MOST OF THE TIME...WILL PRODUCE
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS AT THESE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM HST SUNDAY FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

&&