Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Honolulu, HI

000
WGHW70 PHFO 191656
FFSHFO

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
655 AM HST SUN FEB 19 2006

HIC003-191815-
ISLAND OF OAHU IN HONOLULU COUNTY-
655 AM HST SUN FEB 19 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF OAHU IN
HONOLULU COUNTY UNTIL 815 AM HST...

AT 650 AM HST...HEAVY RAIN CONTINUED TO FALL OVER THE WINDWARD SIDE 
OF OAHU NEAR KAAAWA...PUNALUU...AND WAIKANE OR JUST NORTH OF 
KANEOHE. RAIN GAGES...AND RADAR...INDICATE RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 
ONE AND TWO INCHES PER HOUR. THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WAS NEARLY 
STATIONARY. 

MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR FLOODING AND SHOULD NOT ATTEMPT TO
CROSS FAST FLOWING OR RISING WATER. MANY FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR
WHEN MOTORISTS TRY CROSSING FLOODED ROADWAYS. TURN AROUND...DON/T
DROWN.

ESCAPE RISING WATER BY CLIMBING DIRECTLY TO HIGHER GROUND. NEVER TRY
TO OUTRACE A FLOOD...EITHER ON FOOT OR IN YOUR VEHICLE. DO NOT CAMP
NEAR STREAMS OR OTHER AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 815 AM HST IF
FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS PERSIST.

LAT...LON 2147 15789 2142 15780 2145 15781 2153 15783
      2158 15786 2162 15791 2163 15794

$$

000
WGHW70 PHFO 191813
FFSHFO

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
811 AM HST SUN FEB 19 2006

HIC003-191821-
ISLAND OF OAHU IN HONOLULU COUNTY-
811 AM HST SUN FEB 19 2006

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR THE ISLAND OF OAHU IN
HONOLULU COUNTY...

AT 802 AM HST...RAINFALL HAS DECREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE 
KAAAWA...PUNALUU AND WAIKANE AREAS. EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE IN THE 
AREA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...AND THUS AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM 
FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA SOURCES FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION. REPORT FLOODING TO THE POLICE OR
CIVIL DEFENSE OFFICIALS FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2147 15789 2142 15780 2145 15781 2153 15783
      2158 15786 2162 15791 2163 15794

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST SUN FEB 19 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK TRADES WILL RETURN LATER TODAY AND LAST INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH
CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...HOWEVER SHOWERS WILL FAVOR
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LOW OFF TO THE WEST OF KAUAI AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW WELL OFF
TO THE NORTH OF THE BIG ISLAND HAVE SETUP A STRONG ZONAL JET ACROSS
THE HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN. THIS FEATURE IS STREAMING MOISTURE INTO
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS MORNING IS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE ISLANDS AND UPPER FLOW IS SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON THE
RADAR WITH HIGHER LEVEL ECHOES MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...AND
LOWER LEVEL ECHOES MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
THIS MORNING MAINLY OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS WITH THE HIGHEST
CONCENTRATION OVER OAHU/S WINDWARD AND KOOLAU AREAS. RADAR
PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES SHOW UP TO 5 INCHES IN SOME ISOLATED
AREAS...WITH GAUGES REPORTING UP TO 3 INCHES. THE SHOWERS IN THE
PAST HOUR REMAIN RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.
AT THE 4 AM UPDATE WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD ADVISORY THROUGH 7 AM TO
COVER PONDING OF WATER ON THE KAMEHAMEHA HIGHWAY THIS MORNING FOR
WINDWARD OAHU. ON THE OTHER SMALLER ISLANDS HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN FAST MOVING THEREFORE HAVEN/T HAD ENOUGH TIME TO CAUSE ANY
SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS.

FOR TODAY A PRETTY SOLID VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP THE
ISLAND CHAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. FOG FOR THE SUMMITS STILL COULD BE DENSE
FOR THE MORNING HOURS. KONA/S ASOS SHOWS A SOLID DECK AROUND 8000 TO
9000 FEET ALL NIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE SUMMITS SOCKED IN WITH
FOG.
TONIGHT WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH
A WEAK 700 THRU 500 MB SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH THE FLOW...ALONG
WITH A PRETTY LAYER OF MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS. THE LOWEST LEVELS
SHOULD HAVE A LIGHT TRADE WIND COMPONENT TO THEM WHICH WOULD SHOULD
KEEP THE PROBLEMS TO THE WINDWARD AND MAUKA REGION MUCH LIKE
TONIGHT. FOR THE GRIDDED DATABASE...JUST WENT WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND KEPT THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION WORDING OUT. WILL LET DAY SHIFT GET
A GOOD LOOK AT THINGS AND ALLOW THEM TO MAKE THE CALL FOR TONIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH A PRETTY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE
FLOW. THIS SHOULD BRING THE STATE INTO A TYPICAL CLIMATOLOGICAL
RAINFALL PATTERN...SIDED CLOSE TO CLIMO NUMBERS FOR POPS. KEPT THE
HIGH CLOUDINESS IN THROUGH MONDAY AND RETURNED TO THE TYPICAL TRADE
WIND CLOUD PATTERN ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE LEAVES THE
REGION.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND WILL STAY IN A HOLDING PATTERN FOR NOW. GFS150
AND THE ECMWF ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT IN HANDLING THIS PERIOD.
THE GFS IS TRYING TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH
500 MB WITH A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ALOFT. IF THIS PLAYS OUT NEXT
WEEKEND WILL BE A VERY WET ONE FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE LATEST
TREND OF THE GFS HAS BEEN TO OVER DUE THE EXTENDED THEREFORE FOR NOW
WILL KEEP STATUS QUO.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 8 AM HST FOR THE SUMMITS OF THE BIG
ISLAND.

&&

PROTON