Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Honolulu, HI

000
WGHW70 PHFO 012105
FFSHFO

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1102 AM HST WED MAR 1 2006

HIC003-012345-
ISLAND OF OAHU IN HONOLULU COUNTY-
1102 AM HST WED MAR 1 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF OAHU IN
HONOLULU COUNTY UNTIL 145 PM HST...

AT 1045 AM HST...CIVIL DEFENSE REPORTED A LANDLSIDE ON JOHNSON 
ROAD...BETWEEN KUALOA AND WAIKANE. IN ADDITION...POLICE OFFICERS 
REPORTED WATER ON KAM HIGHWAY NEAR KUALOA...WITH WATER REACHING AS 
HIGH AS CAR DOORS. KAHUKU HIGH SCHOOL IS CLOSED...DUE TO WATER IN 
THE PARKING LOT...AND WATER APPROACHING FIRST FLOOR CLASSROOMS. 

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF STREAMS
AND COULD ALSO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ROCK AND MUDSLIDES IN STEEP 
TERRAIN.

MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR FLOODING AND SHOULD NOT ATTEMPT TO
CROSS FAST FLOWING OR RISING WATER. MANY FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR
WHEN MOTORISTS TRY CROSSING FLOODED ROADWAYS. TURN AROUND...DON/T
DROWN.

LAT...LON 2144 15787 2146 15779 2172 15791 2172 15801

$$

BIRCHARD

000
WGHW70 PHFO 012223
FFSHFO

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1125 AM HST WED MAR 1 2006

HIC003-012345-
ISLAND OF OAHU IN HONOLULU COUNTY-
1125 AM HST WED MAR 1 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF OAHU IN
HONOLULU COUNTY UNTIL 145 PM HST...

AT 1125 AM HST...RADAR AND RAIN GAGES SHOWED THAT THE AREA OF HEAVY 
RAIN ALONG OAHU/S WINDWARD COAST...FROM KAHUKU TO KAHALUU...WAS 
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. HOWEVER...RUNOFF FROM EARLIER HEAVY RAINS 
WILL CONTINUE...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. STATE 
WARNING POINT EARLIER REPORTED A LANDSLIDE ON JOHNSON ROAD...BETWEEN 
KUALOA AND WAIKANE. KAHUKU HIGH SCHOOL IS CLOSED DUE TO WATER IN THE 
PARKING LOT.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF STREAMS
AND COULD ALSO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ROCK AND MUDSLIDES IN STEEP 
TERRAIN.

MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR FLOODING AND SHOULD NOT ATTEMPT TO
CROSS FAST FLOWING OR RISING WATER. MANY FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR
WHEN MOTORISTS TRY CROSSING FLOODED ROADWAYS. TURN AROUND...DON/T
DROWN.

LAT...LON 2144 15787 2146 15779 2172 15791 2172 15801

$$

BIRCHARD

000
WGHW70 PHFO 012233
FFSHFO

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1227 PM HST WED MAR 1 2006

HIC003-012345-
ISLAND OF OAHU IN HONOLULU COUNTY-
1227 PM HST WED MAR 1 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF OAHU IN
HONOLULU COUNTY UNTIL 145 PM HST...

AT 1225 PM HST...RADAR SHOWED THAT HEAVY RAIN HAS REDEVELOPED OVER 
WINDWARD OAHU...MAINLY BETWEEN KAHUKU AND KAHALUU. IN ADDITION... 
HEAVY SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP BETWEEN MAUNAWILI AND KANEOHE. 

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
KAHUKU...LAIE...KUALOA...HAUULA...KAAAWA...WAIKANE...PUNALUU AND 
WAIAHOLE. 

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF STREAMS
AND COULD ALSO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ROCK AND MUDSLIDES IN STEEP 
TERRAIN.

MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR FLOODING AND SHOULD NOT ATTEMPT TO
CROSS FAST FLOWING OR RISING WATER. MANY FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR
WHEN MOTORISTS TRY CROSSING FLOODED ROADWAYS. TURN AROUND...DON/T
DROWN.

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 145 PM HST IF
FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS PERSIST.

LAT...LON 2144 15787 2146 15779 2172 15791 2172 15801

$$

BIRCHARD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST WED MAR 1 2006

CORRECTED LONGITUDE IN PARAGRAPH FOUR OF DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AS HIGH CLOUDS STREAM IN FROM THE WEST. A MOIST EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...KEEPING
THE WEATHER UNSETTLED...ESPECIALLY AROUND KAUAI. THE HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD THIN BY THE WEEKEND...AND THE AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY DRY
OUT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED SUNSHINE OVER LEEWARD AREAS...BUT
AN APPROACHING SHEARLINE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP WINDWARD AREAS CLOUDY
AND WET THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE WESTERN ISLANDS THIS MORNING...
AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS INTO A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FAR NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS NEAR 35N 175W. RADAR SHOWS A
LARGE AREA OF RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS...OVER WATERS SOUTH
OF NIIHAU...WHILE SMALLER HEAVY RAIN CELLS ARE MOVING OVER KAUAI
FROM THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAIN HAS NOT ADVECTED INTO OAHU...
TERRAIN ANCHORED HEAVY SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE WINDWARD
COAST...LIKELY DUE TO THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TERRAIN AND THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW. MOISTURE WITHIN THE BIG ISLAND PLUME IS ALSO
DETECTED BY RADAR SOUTH OF OAHU...WHILE THE PREVAILING TRADES ARE
BRINGING SHOWERS /OF WEAKER INTENSITY/ INTO THE WINDWARD SIDES OF
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

HAVE DECREASED WIND SPEEDS OVER COASTAL WATERS...AND ON THE BIG
ISLAND SUMMITS TODAY...BASED ON OBS AND MODEL GUIDANCE. WINDS OVER
THE SUMMITS APPEAR TO BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND GUIDANCE
ALSO INDICATES BELOW ADVISORY SPEEDS TO PERSIST...THEREFORE...AN
UPDATE ISSUED SHORTLY WILL REMOVE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SUMMITS.

MODELS KEEP A CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR KAUAI THROUGH FRIDAY...
WHILE TRADES PREVAIL ALONG THE EASTERN END OF THE CHAIN. WHILE UPPER
LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN END OF THE ISLAND CHAIN INTO THE WEEKEND.

EVEN THOUGH THE LOW CURRENTLY NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THERE IS
MODEL CONSENSUS THAT A WEAK LOW/TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN ITS PLACE...
BUT AT A LOWER LATITUDE BETWEEN 170W AND 175W. THIS IS THE FEATURE
THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR KEEPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
IN PLACE NEAR...AND WEST OF...KAUAI...BUT AT THE SAME TIME WILL
ALLOW AN EASTERLY TRADE FLOW TO PREVAIL OVER MOST ISLANDS. THIS
RELATIVELY WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND...
ALLOWING TRADES TO BUILD OVER ALL ISLANDS. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A
WEAK SHEARLINE APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHICH MAY PRECLUDE A COMPLETE WINDWARD CLEARING
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CURRENT NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELL WILL
LINGER INTO THURSDAY WITH JUST A SLOW DIMINISHING TREND...ALTHOUGH
OVERNIGHT BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM WAIMEA AND KAILUA BAYS INDICATE
THAT A SLIGHTLY LONGER PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL IS MIXING IN WITH THE
SHORTER PERIOD ENERGY PREVIOUSLY PRESENT. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...AND MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED IN TIME ONCE AGAIN...AS A NEW NORTHERLY SWELL BUILDING
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO AFFECT SELECT BEACHES ON THE EAST FACING
SHORES.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS IN EFFECT FOR WATERS MOST EXPOSED TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELL...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF SWELL AND WIND
WAVES ARE EXCEEDING THE SCA THRESHOLD OF 10 FT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF ALL ISLANDS EXCEPT LANAI AND KAHOOLAWE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MOST HAWAIIAN WATERS UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY
FOR SEAS GREATER THAN 10 FT.

&&

BIRCHARD