Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Honolulu, HI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
300 PM HST WED FEB 21 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
HE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR ANOTHER DAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE ISLAND CHAIN
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TRADES WITH BETTER WEATHER
SHOULD BE RETURNING AFTER ITS PASSAGE AND LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE AREA WEST
OF MOLOKAI INCLUDING OAHU AND KAUAI TIL 8 PM THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE
NO DEVIATION TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. DID SOME MASSAGING TO
THE GRIDS WHERE I BEEFED UP THE POPS AND INCLUDE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME OF THEM SEVERE WEST OF MOLOKAI TONIGHT. THE
WINDS ARE UPDATED TO MATCH THE CURRENT PICTURE. THE DEEPENING TROUGH
WEST OF KAUAI HAS CAUSED THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WEST OF MOLOKAI TO
VEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ALREADY. MODELS ARE A TAD
BEHIND THIS.

THE DYNAMICS DOES NOT TO BE AS STRONG TOMORROW AS TODAY WITH THE JET
STREAM TAKES A MORE ZONAL ORIENTATION. SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TIL
NOON TOMORROW LOOKS OK. THE REMAINING ISLANDS HAVE NOT HAD MUCH
SHOWERS. THEY SHOULD BE FINE EVEN WITH THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
TOMORROW.

THURSDAY MAY STILL HAVE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE BUT THE AIR MASS
SHOULD BE MORE STABLE. LIGHT TRADES SHOULD BE RETURNING. ANOTHER
FRONT NORTHWEST OF KAUAI WILL HOLD THE TRADES IN CHECK. THE TRADES
WILL BE REINFORCED BY A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE DEPARTED TROUGH SPINS UP A LOW WELL EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. WITH
THE ISLANDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRIER STATEWIDE WITH COOL NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM FOR KAUAI AND OAHU.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY FOR KAUAI OAHU AND MOLOKAI.
&&

LAU