Flash Flood Warning 152, NWS Honolulu, HI

000
WGHW70 PHFO 011814
FFSHFO

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
806 AM HST WED NOV 1 2006

HIC009-011900-
MOLOKAI IN MAUI COUNTY-
806 AM HST WED NOV 1 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF MOLOKAI
IN MAUI COUNTY UNTIL 900 AM HST...

RADAR SHOWS THAT HEAVY RAINS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER EAST MOLOKAI BUT 
STREAMS ARE STILL RUNNING HIGH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO HALAWA 
VALLEY...PUKOO AND HIGHWAY 450 EAST OF MILE MARKER 16.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF STREAMS
AND COULD ALSO TRIGGER ROCK AND MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN.

MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR FLOODING AND SHOULD NOT ATTEMPT TO
CROSS FAST FLOWING OR RISING WATER. TURN AROUND...DON/T
DROWN.

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 900 AM HST IF
FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS PERSIST.

LAT...LON 2103 15689 2103 15669 2121 15669 2121 15689

$$
KODAMA

000
WGHW70 PHFO 011855
FFSHFO

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
852 AM HST WED NOV 1 2006

HIC009-011902-
MOLOKAI IN MAUI-
852 AM HST WED NOV 1 2006

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE ISLAND OF MOLOKAI IN MAUI COUNTY 
EXPIRES AT 900 AM HST...

HEAVY RAINS OVER EAST MOLOKAI FROM PUKOO TO HALAWA VALLEY HAS 
DIMINISHED.  STREAM LEVELS HAVE DROPPED BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL 
LEVELS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR 
MAUI COUNTY.

LAT...LON 2103 15689 2103 15669 2121 15669 2121 15689

$$

KODAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST WED NOV 1 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS LATER
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL TURN OUR WINDS FROM LIGHT TRADES
TO MOIST SOUTHERLIES STARTING LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO
THURSDAY. CLOUDY...HUMID WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR KAUAI AND OAHU WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO
THE LOW. FEWER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. RAINFALL WILL FAVOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THIS WEEKEND. THE TRADES WILL PROBABLY
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE A LAST MINUTE DECISION TO INCLUDE MAUI COUNTY IN THE
UPCOMING FLASH FLOOD WATCH BASED ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS WE ARE SEEING
EARLY THIS MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM TO CONSIDER THIS MORNING IS THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHEN AND WHERE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A FAIRLY STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH ABOUT 30N 170W TO THE DATELINE AT
21N...OR ABOUT 1000 MILES WNW OF KAUAI. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE RATHER QUICKLY
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS
UPPER FEATURE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INDUCE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT WILL DEVELOP WEST OF KAUAI LATER TODAY AND SLIDE EASTWARD OVER
OR JUST N OF THE ISLANDS THU AND THU NIGHT.

FORTUNATELY...THE MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION NOW.
THE 00Z RUN OF THE NOGAPS WAS MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. THE
WRF-NMM SOLUTION APPEARS TO HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...
WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL OVER TIME WITH THIS
EVENT.

BOTH THE GFS AND WRF-NMM SHOW DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 305K
SURFACE DEVELOPING OVER KAUAI BY TONIGHT AND SPREADING EASTWARD TO
OAHU BEFORE WEAKENING. IN ADDITION...RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE DEVELOPS IN THIS SAME ZONE AS THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES...WHICH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOWER LEVEL FORCING.
THE AIRMASS IS ALREADY VERY JUICY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2
INCHES IN THE UNCONTAMINATED 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH PHLI AND PHTO...
SO IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO DEVELOP HEAVY SHOWERS. FEEL THAT WE/VE
GOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE NOW TO GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR KAUAI AND
OAHU...STARTING TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.

ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PASS TO THE NE BY
FRIDAY...THE TRAILING REMNANT CONVERGENT SHOWER BAND WILL WEAKEN
RATHER QUICKLY...PROBABLY SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF OAHU OR MAUI
COUNTY. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN RATHER JUICY...SO THERE
WILL REMAIN A LIKELIHOOD FOR MORE LOCALIZED MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS. MODELS AGREE THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REDEVELOP NEAR
THE BIG ISLAND BY SATURDAY...WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING
FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ISLANDS AS WE START THE WEEKEND.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHIFTING BACK TO
THE N OVER THE ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND. EVEN THOUGH MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE W...THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A CONVECTIVE PATTERN THAT COULD LEAD TO
LOCALLY HEAVY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND
INTERIORS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE N OF THE ISLANDS LATER
MONDAY ALLOWING THE TRADES TO MAKE A COMEBACK WITH DRIER AIR AND
LOWER HUMIDITY SPREADING IN FROM THE E.

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON OVERNIGHT BUOY DATA...WE WILL DROP THE HIGH SURF ADVISORIES
FOR THE N AND E FACING SHORES WITH THIS PACKAGE. THE N SWELL WILL
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT FOR HARBOR
SURGES IN HILO AND KAHULUI HARBORS...HOWEVER.

&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 AM TODAY THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY FOR NIIHAU...
KAUAI...AND OAHU...MOLOKAI...LANAI...KAHOOLAWE...AND MAUI.

&&

R BALLARD