Flash Flood Warning 128, NWS Honolulu, HI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
955 PM HST MON SEP 25 2006

CORRECTED TO INCLUDE THE WORD DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL RULE THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THE CURRENT LIGHT TRADES WILL PICK UP A NOTCH
WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ENHANCE
SOME OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE STATE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAJORITY OF THE MODELS AGREE ON TROUGHING OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE TRADE WIND REGIME
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL IN
AMOUNT EXCEPT FOR THE BIG ISLAND. THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE
SHALLOW AS WELL ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS WHERE IT IS CONFINED TO
ONLY WITHIN 10 THOUSAND FEET. WITH LIGHT TRADES...EXPECT AFTERNOON
CLOUDS TO FORM OVER LAND AREAS...AND THERE JUST MIGHT BE A HEAVY
SHOWER OR TWO. THE BEST DYNAMICS IS TOMORROW...TUESDAY...OVER KAUAI
AND OAHU WITH LIFTED INDICES OF MINUS 2 TO 4 AS PER GFS.

THE BIG ISLAND ON THE OTHER HAND HAS THE MOISTURE AND DEPT BUT NOT
MUCH SO THE DYNAMICS. CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE BIG ISLAND
LOOKS FINE INTO TUESDAY...THAT IS WITH THUNDERSTORM IN THE FORECAST.
CURRENTLY...THERE IS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN HILO BAY...AND SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE KAU COAST.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT OVER ON EAST MAUI IN THE
HANA AREA. SHOWERS ARE RATHER SPOTTY ELSEWHERE OVER THE WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS OF KAUAI AND OAHU.

&&

.MARINE...
THE REMNANTS OF FORMER HURRICANE YAGI IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO
HURRICANE FORCE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. WAVE MODEL SUGGEST A SWELL FROM YAGI TO REACH THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FRIDAY WITH SURF HEIGHTS NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS FOR
THE NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES.

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

LAU