Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
950 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...LOOKS LIKE A SVR WX DAY TAKING SHAPE
WITH MOST OF THE STABILITY INDICES VERY HIGH. SOME WEAK ELEVATED
CONVECTION MOVED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER EARLY TODAY. WITH THE
MORE IMPORTANT CONVECTION NOW FIRING NW OF BTV. WIND DAMAGE IS THE
PRIMARY RISK TODAY BUT LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN ANY
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. WILL NOT ISSUE AN UPDATE TODAY AS PREVIOUS
FCST LOOKS ON TRACK.

WILL UPDATE THE COASTAL FCST TO UPGRADE TO SCA FOR SEAS WITH WINDS
GETTING TO SCA CRITERIA IN GUSTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 310 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR TODAY.
SPC HAS THE ENTIRE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVE MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN
THE 60S TO AROUND 70 EARLY THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM DURING THE MORNING TO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR MOST AREAS
BEFORE THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND/OR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.

AT THE 850 MILLIBAR LEVEL MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT WITH MODELS SHOWING
AN AXIS OF DEW POINTS AS HIGH AS PLUS 15 CELSIUS AND THETA-E
VALUES OF 340. LIFTED INDEXES WELL BELOW ZERO AND CAPE VALUES OF
2000 OR HIGHER. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE LIFT ALONG WITH ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM OLD CONVECTION. ENOUGH WIND AND WIND SHEAR TO
SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION POTENTIAL.

WILL USE ENHANCED WORDING IN ZONES...HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE IS SOME FOG AROUND AT THIS TIME AND WILL MENTION PATCHY
EARLY MORNING FOG TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM CANADA PROVIDING COOLER
AND LESS HUMID WEATHER. HOWEVER...WITH FRONT SLOWING DOWN OFFSHORE
THE CHANGE IN AIR MASS WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE OVER MORE SOUTHERN
AND COASTAL REGIONS TONIGHT.

USED THE GFS40...HPC QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS...
WNAWAVE SEAS FORECAST AND MAV MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. NOTICEABLY LOWER DEW POINTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THEN VALUES BEGIN TO CREEP UPWARD AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS WE GET INTO
A SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH AND IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION...THEN SURFACE RIDGE TO BRING
DRIER LESS HUMID WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND AT LEAST PART OF SUNDAY
BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

AVIATION...
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER ANY PATCHY EARLY
MORNING FOG BURNS OFF...EXCEPT CONDITIONS WILL LOWER WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WITH VERY LOW VISIBILITY WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY...BUT WILL HOLD
OFF ON PUTTING UP AN ADVISORY. CONDITIONS LET UP TONIGHT AS WINDS
SHIFT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WEAKENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS WILL
LIKELY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ON FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT SWINGS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

 &&

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
341 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

ANZ150-MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ001>010-013-014-190745-
STONINGTON ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-NORTHERN OXFORD-
NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-
COASTAL WALDO-NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-
NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-
MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-
COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
341 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINE...
CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...SOUTHEASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO THE
MERRIMACK RIVER MA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...
ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. USERS SHOULD
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. ONCE
AGAIN...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL BE STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE. USERS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS FOR
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS...OR DAMAGE AS SOON AS
CONDITIONS ARE SAFE TO DO SO.

THE GENERAL PUBLIC CAN REPORT SEVERE WEATHER BY EMAIL TO
GYX.SKYWARN@NOAA.GOV OR TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772.

ES

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1039 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 AM     TSTM WND DMG     GRAY                    43.89N 70.37W
07/18/2006                   CUMBERLAND         ME   PUBLIC

            ...THIS IS A TEST...
            NO EVENT OCCURRED BETWEEN
            1020 AM 07/18/2006 AND 1035 AM 07/18/2006
            ...THIS IS A TEST...
&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1115 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

MEZ009-014-181600-
CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-
1115 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

...THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOMERSET COUNTY THROUGH NOON EDT...

AT 1115 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES WEST OF BRIGHTON...OR ABOUT 19 MILES
NORTH OF SKOWHEGAN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL
AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND BRIGHTON...MAYFIELD...KINGSBURY...
HARMONY...CAMBRIDGE AND RIPLEY THROUGH NOON EDT.

MOVE INSIDE IF STORMS APPROACH YOUR LOCATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1120 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

MEZ007-008-012-013-181600-
NORTHERN FRANKLIN-NORTHERN OXFORD-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
1120 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

...THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT OXFORD COUNTY AND FRANKLIN COUNTY
THROUGH NOON EDT...

AT 1120 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 6 MILES SOUTH OF OQUOSSOC...OR
ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RANGELEY...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.
ANOTHER DEVELOPING STORM WAS LOCATED ABOUT 10 MILES NORTH OF
STONEHAM...ALSO MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND ANDOVER...PHILLIPS...RUMFORD AND BETHEL
THROUGH NOON EDT.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...DEADLY CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1146 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

NHZ001-002-181630-
NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-
1146 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT COOS COUNTY THROUGH 1230 PM
EDT...

AT 1146 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 19 MILES WEST OF PITTSBURG...OR ABOUT 14
MILES NORTHWEST OF CANAAN...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND COLEBROOK...PITTSBURG...
CLARKSVILLE...MILLSFIELD...DIXVILLE NOTCH AND ERROL THROUGH 1230 PM
EDT.

ANOTHER STRONG STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LYNDONVILLE VERMONT...ALSO
MOVING EAST AROUND 30 MPH.  THIS STORM WILL AFFECT LANCASTER AND
BERLIN THROUGH 1230 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...DEADLY CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.