Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
243 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
TO FIRE OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE BIT ERRATIC WITH REGARD TO STRENGTH OF
STORMS TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH WITH
THESE STORMS. COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE CELLS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SHORT WAVE REMAINS WELL BACK TO THE WEST IN NEW YORK
STATE AND WILL NOT MOVE ACROSS CWA UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST OVER THE FAVORED MOUNTAIN AREAS...WITH
LITTLE OR NO CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST.
TOMORROW LOOKS PRETTY HOT...BUT VERTICAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT
THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED. WILL DROP ANY MENTION OF POPS
FOR TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. THREAT OF
SHOWERS SEEMS MINIMAL ACROSS MOST AREAS INTO TUESDAY ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING TUESDAY...EXPECT A THREAT
OF SHOWERS ALL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON STRENGTH OF FRONT...HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL PUSH...AND
HOW MUCH DRY AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE FOLLOWED GFS
SOLUTION WITH A DRIER DAY FOR WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...00Z GFS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES BACK AS WARM FRONT...THEN LINGERS OVER AREA
FOR REMAINDER OF WEEK INTO THE WEEKENDS...KEEPING THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREA. LATEST 12Z GFS SOLUTION
QUITE DIFFERENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND AT THIS TIME...ID LIKE
TO SEE MORE SIMILAR RUNS BEFORE ALTERING EXTENDED FCST.

HAVE USED MAINLY GFS TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR THIS EVENING...WITH FOG DEVELOPING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONCE FOG GETS GOING EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO DROP
TO AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH LEBANON DROPPING TO LIFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO PROBLEMS ON THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...JENSENIUS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
317 AM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006

ANZ150-MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ001>010-013-014-160730-
STONINGTON ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-NORTHERN OXFORD-
NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-
COASTAL WALDO-NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-
NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-
MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-
COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
317 AM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINE...
CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...SOUTHEASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO THE
MERRIMACK RIVER MA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
251 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006

MEZ009-151945-
CENTRAL SOMERSET-
251 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOMERSET COUNTY THROUGH 345 PM
EDT...

AT 251 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 8 MILES NORTH OF JACKMAN
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS CLUSTER WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...AND COULD CAUSE SMALL STREAMS TO
APPROACH BANKFULL. THESE STORMS ALSO CONTAINS DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. THE
STORMS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE U.S. AND CANADA
BORDER THROUGH 345 PM.

APFFEL

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