Severe Thunderstorm Warning 155, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
152 PM EDT SAT SEP 9 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT A SOUTHWEST FLOW IS BRINGING IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALLOWING THE FRONTAL LIFT TO DEVELOP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MESO-ANALYSES SHOWS INCREASING CAPES AND LOWERING
LIFTED INDEXES SUPPORTING INCREASING AND POSSIBLY STRONG
CONVECTION.

RADAR SHOWS ECHOES MOVING TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AT CLOSE TO 30
KNOTS. A COUPLE LINES OF STORMS HAVE FORMED OVER NEW YORK STATE.
WILL MENTION SOME GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER MORE SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS.
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL END THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT THOUGH SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ON FOR
A FEW MORE HOURS.

LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT AS NORTHERLY WINDS
KICK IN OVERNIGHT. SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS AROUND AND
SOME FOG BUT DONT EXPECT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER AND WINDS.

ON SUNDAY THE HIGH BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA AND CLOUDS BREAK
QUICKLY ON A COOL DRY NORTHERLY WIND AND SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.

GENERALLY USED THE GFS40 AND MAV MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY
COOL WEATHER WILL RESULT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PRODUCE
AREAS OF FROST OVER THE DEEPER INLAND VALLEYS BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNING...AND PERHAPS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WELL. FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WEAK SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH WILL PROVIDE
UNSETTLED WEATHER. AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SLOWLY
SOUTH AND KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE PICTURE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER DURING ANY
SHOWERS OR GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES BY LOWER CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION CREATING INSTRUMENT FLIGHT RULES
CONDITIONS. SOME LIGHT FOG MAY FOR AS WELL...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING
A LOT OF DENSE FOG DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND A NORTHERLY WIND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...NO HEADLINES FOR THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THOUGH
SOME WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KNOTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS...AND IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL STAY JUST BELOW THE 5
FOOT THRESHOLD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...GENERALLY QUIET. HOWEVER...
SWELLS FROM FLORENCE COULD REACH THE WATERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
323 AM EDT SAT SEP 9 2006

ANZ150-170-MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ001>010-013-014-101000-
STONINGTON ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
WATERS FROM STONINGTON (DEER ISLE) ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA FROM
25 TO 40 NM-NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-
SOUTHERN OXFORD-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-
COASTAL WALDO-NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-
NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-
MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-
COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
323 AM EDT SAT SEP 9 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR...WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL
NEW HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...SOUTHEASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO THE
MERRIMACK RIVER MA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TODAY WILL THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH THIS FRONT. NO WATCHES OR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS ARE
ANTICIPATED...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS SUNDAY NIGHT. FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS MAY BE
ISSUED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ALTHOUGH SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...SPOTTERS SHOULD
CALL IN ANY SEVERE OR NEAR SEVERE WEATHER IF OBSERVED.

APFFEL

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