Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
250 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATE TODAY/EARLY EVE...TSRA HAVE BROKEN ACROSS NY/VT IN ADVANCE OF 500
MB WAVE OVER LK ONTARIO. RUC SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS
WAVE. AS THIS WAVE MOVES EAST...SHOULD SEE COVERAGE OF TSRA
EXPAND...WITH SOME STRONGER STORMS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO NH OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAIN THREAT WILL LKLY BE BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS...AS GOOD DEEP LYR UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS
PRESENT...WHILE FZ LVL ON THE ORDER OF 15K FT...AND -20C LVL AT
27K...SO SUSTAINED ELEVATED CORES WILL BE LESS LKLY. ALSO WITH PWS
OF AROUND 2...VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A THREAT AS WELL. SVR
WATCH 671 JUST FOR NH...AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE WHAT KIND OF SVR
THREAT EXISTS FOR ME THIS EVE.

HEAT FLAGS WILL CONTINUE THRU 22Z...AS HEAT INDICES HAVE RISEN TO BETWEEN
100 AND 110 IN THESE AREAS.

TONIGHT/THURSDAY...A SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH WILL KEEP THE FRONT LINED UP SOMEWHERE
ACROSS CWA. EXACT LOCATION UNCERTAIN...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT/LL BE
CLOSER TO NRN AND CENTRAL ZONES...AND HAVE WENT WITH POPS THAT
REFLECT THIS...THOUGH ALL ZONES WILL HAVE AT LEAST CHC POPS INTO
THU MORNING...WHEN BACK EDGE OF WAVE WILL BE CLEARING CWA TO THE
EAST...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL FRONT THROUGH
CENTRAL AND SRN ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. TDS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
70F...EXCEPT ACROSS FAR NRN ZONES...WHERE FRONT WILL PASS EARLY
THU. WILL SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SHRA/TSRA...SO TEMPS WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS HOT. TDS WILL DROP A LITTLE RIGHT BEHIND FRONT INTO THE
LOW-MID 60S BY LATE IN THE DAY. -CEMPA

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLIDE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ONLY A CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDGES OF CWA. HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY...AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS BETWEEN VFR/MVFR IN HZ WILL CONTINUE AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE NIGHT. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NH
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN AT ALL TERMINALS RIGHT
THRU THE TAF PERIOD...POSSIBLY LOWERING VIS TO IFR BRIEFLY.  -CEMPA

&&

.MARINE...
EXCEPT FOR CONVECTION TODAY INTO THURSDAY...PRETTY QUIET ON THE WATERS. SEAS
MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON MONDAY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR MEZ018-023 UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
  ...HEAT ADVISORY FOR MEZ012-019>021-024>026 UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
NH...HEAT ADVISORY FOR NHZ003>006 UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
  ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR NHZ007>010-013-014 UNTIL 6 PM
     WEDNESDAY.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
515 AM EDT WED AUG 2 2006

MEZ007>009-013-014-022-027-028-NHZ001-002-030915-
NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR WALDO-KNOX-
COASTAL WALDO-NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-
515 AM EDT WED AUG 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINE
AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY.

MEZ012-019>021-024>026-NHZ003>006-030915-
SOUTHERN OXFORD-INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-
COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-NORTHERN GRAFTON-
NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-
515 AM EDT WED AUG 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINE
AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY.

MEZ018-023-NHZ007>010-013-014-030915-
INTERIOR YORK-COASTAL YORK-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-STRAFFORD-
INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
515 AM EDT WED AUG 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINE...
CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS
MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY.

ANZ150-170-030915-
STONINGTON ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
WATERS FROM STONINGTON (DEER ISLE) ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA FROM
25 TO 40 NM-
515 AM EDT WED AUG 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF AN AND THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER MA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO THE COASTAL WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY.

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