Flood Watch 13, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
258 AM EDT FRI OCT 20 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THERE WERE A SERIES OF WEAK
WAVES ON THE FRONT WITH AN AREA OF 3 HOUR 3 TO 4 MB PRESSURE FALLS
CONCENTRATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NEAR THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. BY 12Z...A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE SHOULD BEGIN TAKING
SHAPE NEAR THE DELMARVA THEN DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. GFS AND WRF HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH HEAVIEST QGF AXIS ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES
WITH A GOOD TWO TO THREE INCHES LIKELY THERE. AMOUNTS SHOULD TRAIL
OFF TO AROUND AN INCH NEAR THE COAST...BUT CLOSE TO THE SURFACE
LOW TRACK ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. ACROSS OUR MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...AMOUNTS WILL BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES TO PROMPT A WATCH FOR LATE
TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION CUTS OFF QUICKLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE
LOW. WINDS LINE UP WELL TONIGHT...AND BASED ON THE GFS/WRF
FORECAST SOUNDINGS MUCH OF OUR AREA SHOULD REACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA WITH AN ADVISORY ISSUED FOR TONIGHT WITH THE NEW PACKAGE
THIS MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL...THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION IS PREFERRED...AS IT HAS BEEN THE
BEST WITH CONTINUITY AND HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE 00Z GGEM AND THE
00Z UKMET.

OTHER THAN SOME UPSLOPE IN THE MORNING SATURDAY...THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE LONG GONE WITH DRYING IN PLACE. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD
BE IN THE MORNING WITH BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS. AFTER
THIS...THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER DECREASES. COMBINED WITH THE
DECREASING GRADIENT...THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO EASE BACK SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT A TYPICAL UPSLOPE/DOWNSLOPE CLOUD PATTERN TO
START SATURDAY...WITH DRYING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS MOS WAS
PREFERRED FOR HIGHS.

RIDGING IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND A FLAT RIDGE IN THE MID LEVELS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT. A BLEND OF MOS
NUMBERS WAS USED FOR LOWS.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE MID LEVELS STARTS TO APPROACH SUNDAY.
WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE TO START...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE GFS MAY
BE TOO FAST BRINGING THE RAIN BACK IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BACKED UP
THE TIME ABOUT 3 TO 5 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD LEAVE SUNDAY MOSTLY
DRY. AGAIN...PREFERRED THE GFS MOS NUMBERS FOR HIGHS.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST
WITH THE 00Z GFS MORE OR LESS LIKE IT PREDECESSORS. WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT...DOWNPLAYED THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME UPSLOPE SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING. NO CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST PAST MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR AS DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE STEADILY BY LATER TODAY AS THE DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. PRESENT GALE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
WINDS WILL START IN THE GALE CATEGORY SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER
THIS...THE DROPPING GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO DROP BACK IN
THE SMALL CRAFT RANGE LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. COULD SEE WINDS GET BACK TO THE SMALL CRAFT RANGE MONDAY
WITH THE DEPARTING SECONDARY LOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FOR MEZ007>009-012>014 FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM
     SATURDAY.
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028 FROM 8 PM FRIDAY
     TO 9 AM SATURDAY.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FOR NHZ001>004 FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM SATURDAY.
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR NHZ001>010-013-014 FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM
     SATURDAY.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ150 FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO NOON SATURDAY.
&&