Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
326 PM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE AHEAD OF SURFACE BOUNDARY AND WITH
APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE. ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN BY LATE EVENING
AS UPPER SUPPORT MOVES EAST AND WITH LOSS OF HEATING. PRIMARY
PROBLEM WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALIZED
DRAINAGE FLOODING. GIVEN HIGH FREEZING LEVELS...HAIL POTENTIAL
WILL BE QUITE LIMITED. ON SATURDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS
BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW EVEN THE COAST TO BAKE
WITH READINGS CLOSE OR EXCEEDING 90 IN MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. FOR
NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON CARRYING A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY...BUT LATER FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO ADDRESS
THIS. AFTER THIS...THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT CLEARING...EXCEPT
FOR NEAR THE COAST. WITH THE AIRMASS TRANSITION SLOW...WENT WITH A
BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE A BIT CLOSER ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY...BUT
STILL ENOUGH DIFFERENCES FOR A PROBLEMATIC FORECAST...ESPECIALLY
FOR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. AT THIS POINT...BELIEVE MOST MODELS ARE
TOO FAR SOUTH WITH THE FRONT...GIVEN THAT THE PUSH IN THE MID
LEVELS SHEARS OUT TO THE EAST AND WEAKENS. BECAUSE OF THIS...BELIEVE
THAT SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE HAS A SHOT OF FIRING CONVECTION ON THE
FRONT. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A QUIETER DAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CUMULUS.
850 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SUNDAY SHOULD END WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
BELIEVE THE GFS IS TOO COOL WITH THE NEW AIRMASS...SINCE THE
TRANSITION SHOULD BE SLOW. LEANED TOWARD THE NAM MOS FOR LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT BECAUSE OF THIS.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES ON HOW TO
HANDLE THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...AND HOW FAR
NORTH THE RIDGING WILL GET. FOR NOW...USED AN APPROACH CLOSER TO
THE 06Z/12Z GFS. THIS MEANS THAT JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY HAS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
BOUNDARY CLOSE BY. STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH THE UNCERTAINTY.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH COOLER CONDITIONS AFTER THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH LOCAL IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EVENING...THEN WIDESPREAD
MVFR OVERNIGHT IN FOG AND HAZE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH
SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT AHEAD OF SURFACE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...PRIMARY PROBLEM WILL BE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
TONIGHT AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AND HAZE.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING. AFTER THIS...BECAUSE OF THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
445 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006

ANZ150-170-MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ001>010-013-014-290845-
STONINGTON ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
WATERS FROM STONINGTON (DEER ISLE) ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA FROM
25 TO 40 NM-NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-
SOUTHERN OXFORD-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-
COASTAL WALDO-NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-
NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-
MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-
COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
445 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF AN...WESTERN
MAINE...CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...
SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON
ME TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER MA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG AND DAMAGING
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>