Coastal Flood Statement 2, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
213 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD SATURDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND VERY STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

RAINFALL AROUND 2 INCHES IS VERY LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS WITH UP TO
3 INCHES POSSIBLE. WILL PUT UP A FLOOD WATCH BEGINNING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GROUND IS QUITE SATURATED WITH HIGH WATER TABLE DUE TO
RECENT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND EXTENDED PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE
NORMAL RAINFALL OVER THE PAST YEAR AND A HALF AND WITH TREES
BECOMING DORMANT RUNOFF WILL BE MAXIMIZED. URBAN FLOODING ALSO A
CONCERN AS CLOGGED STORM DRAINS MAY COMPLICATE MATTERS.

WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 60 MPH...MAINLY OVER EXPOSED HIGHER TERRAIN
AND AREAS OPEN TO THE OCEAN AS WINDS BLOW IN OFF THE OCEAN FROM A
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. WILL PUT UP A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT BEACH EROSION AND ROUGH SURF DUE TO
SPLASHOVER FROM STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS. THE PORTLAND
HIGH TIDE OF 9.3 FEET AT 347 PM SATURDAY IS WELL BELOW THE FLOOD
THRESHOLD OF 12 FEET...SO WONT PUT UP A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH OR
WARNING SINCE COASTAL FLOODING SHOULD BE MINIMAL AND LIMITED TO
SPLASHOVER FROM WAVE ACTION.

OTHERWISE...USED THE GFS40 MODEL AND MAV MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING WHILE RAIN...OR A RAIN SNOW MIX LINGERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. STRONGEST WINDS AND ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD OCCUR RIGHT
NEAR THE TIME OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BLUSTERY AND COOL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST
WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONFINED LARGELY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SURFACE RIDGE BRINGS A WELCOME BREAK ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO
TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO INSTRUMENT FLIGHT
RULES CONDITIONS /OR LOWER/ THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD AS
RAIN AND STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL BE A CONCERN AS A STRONG SOUTHEAST JET BRINGS
WINDS OF 55 TO 65 KNOTS DOWN TO 2000 FEET SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...WILL CONTINUE THE MARINE
STORM WARNING BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG SOUTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOP. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 20 FEET.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE START WITH STORM FORCE WINDS SATURDAY EVENING...WITH
CONDITIONS DROPPING TO STRONG GALE OVERNIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF
SUNDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028 FROM NOON SATURDAY
     TO 5 AM SUNDAY.
  ...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR MEZ007-012-018>020-023>025 FROM 1 PM
     SATURDAY TO 9 PM SATURDAY.
  ...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR MEZ008-009-013-014-021-022-026>028 FROM
     3 PM SATURDAY TO 11 PM SATURDAY.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FOR NHZ001>010-013-014 FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 5 AM
     SUNDAY.
  ...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR NHZ001>004-006 FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 9
     PM SATURDAY.
  ...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR NHZ005-007>010-013-014 FROM 11 AM
     SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR ANZ150 FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 1 AM SUNDAY.
&&

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