Wind Advisory 4, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WWUS72 KGSP 180536
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1236 AM EST WED JAN 18 2006

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-181000-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-060118T2300Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...
WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE
1236 AM EST WED JAN 18 2006

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. 

WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$

000 
WWUS72 KGSP 180811
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
311 AM EST WED JAN 18 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ034>037-054>057-066>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-182300-
/O.NEW.KGSP.LW.Y.0008.060118T0811Z-060118T2300Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-CALDWELL-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...
HARTWELL...ELBERTON...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...MARION...
MORGANTON...HICKORY...SALISBURY...COLUMBUS...RUTHERFORDTON...
SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE...
GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...
ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...GREENWOOD
311 AM EST WED JAN 18 2006

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON.

WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST AT 15 TO 25 MPH TODAY...WITH SOME GUSTS
TO 35 MPH...ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA...UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

$$

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-182300-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-060118T2300Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...
WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE
311 AM EST WED JAN 18 2006

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
NORTH CAROLINAS MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE DAY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE COULD BLOW DOWN A FEW WEAK TREES OR LARGE TREE LIMBS.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$

HG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1011 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2006

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH APPEARS TO BE A SURFACE REFLECTION OF
THE H8 TROUGH...CONTINUES TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE CWFA ATTM.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN INITIAL BURST OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...THE MAIN AXIS OF THE LLJ WILL SHIFT EAST ALONG WITH THE
H8 TROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL
RE-APPEAR LATER TONIGHT W/IN POST-FRONTAL CAA REGIME...IT APPEARS
THAT ANY WIND   PROBLEMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE MNTNS DURING THIS
TIME. THEREFORE...WILL GIVE THE H8 TROUGH SOME MORE TIME TO SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA...THEN PLAN TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS.

PRECIP CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST WITH THE BEST AREA OF FORCING...BUT
NOT QUITE AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST...SO HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF
THE RAIN SHIELD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FORECAST GRIDS.

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE WITH WRAP-AROUND/
UPSLOPE SNOW POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE COLD AIR SHOULD LAG THE
DEEPER MOISTURE BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. MEANWHILE...THE H8 FLOW NEVER
REALLY TAKES ON A TRUE ORTHOGONAL COMPONENT TO THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED BY THE FACT THAT TEMPS
AT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW
CRYSTAL GROWTH. SUSPECT WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF NEW SNOW
WED MORNING AT BEECH MNTN...OR OTHER HIGH ELEVATION LOCALES...BUT
THIS ISN/T ENOUGH FOR ME TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.

ATTM...THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD ENOUGH SHAPE FOR ME TO DELAY AN
UPDATE UNTIL THE ADVISORY IS CANCELLED AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL FURTHER
ADDRESS POPS AND TEMPS AT THAT TIME.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 239 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2006)

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
TONIGHT AND WED...
MAIN FEATURE TO DEAL WITH IN THE NEAR TERM IS STRONGLY FORCED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDING S THROUGH EASTERN KY...TN AND
AL. 12Z GFS/NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING FRONT SLOWLY EAST AND
MOVE IT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 07Z TIMEFRAME.
WIND FIELDS QUITE IMPRESSIVE OUT AHEAD OF FRONT IN TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. H850 JET BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KTS IS FORECAST.
ALTHOUGH SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY QUITE IMPRESSIVE...INSTABILITY
IS MINIMAL WITH ONLY ABOUT 100J OF ELEVATED CAPE INDICATED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THEREFORE...NOT MUCH OF A THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
SEVERE STORMS AND NO SPC OUTLOOK. CANNOT NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE WHERE A CELL MAXIMIZES MOMENTUM TRANSFER. ALSO A BOTTOM
UP TORNADO SPIN UP CANT BE RULED OUT. TO ADDRESS THE LARGE SCALE
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED....PLAN TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT E OF THE MOUNTAINS AND EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE
MOUNTAINS UNTIL 05Z. BUFKIT SOUNDS INDICATE DURING THE WINDOW OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT MOMENTUM TRANSPORT TO 40KTS OR BETTER
LIKELY. A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY. LOOKS LIKE QPF
SHOULD BE IN THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND .75 TO
1.00 INCH OUTSIDE MOUNTAINS. LOOKS LIKE RIVERS/STREAMS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO HANDLE THIS...THOUGH FRENCH BROAD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
THEREFORE...NO FLOOD WATCH.

COLD AIR WILL SPILL IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH SNOW
LEVELS FALLING TO BELOW 1000 FT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6AM. EXPECT
SOME UPSLOPE (NW FLOW) SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE NC MOUNTAINS
TOWARD SUNRISE AND CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY WED. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED
AND STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
SNOWFALL TO LESS THAN 1 INCH. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE THAT A
DEEP MIXED LAYER WILL DEVELOP ON WED ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT. WILL SEE WINDS GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ALL AREAS.
WILL LIKELY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY ON WED...BUT WILL ALLOW LATER
SHIFTS TO HOIST THAT HEADLINE.

WILL STAY CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MOS TEMPS FOR OVERNIGHT MIN/MAX. USED
ETA12 TO POPULATE WIND GRIDS WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

WED NIGHT...THE GFS AND NAM BRING 1028+MB HIGH NORTH...BECOMING
CENTERED ALONG THE SC COAST BY 12Z THU. ALTHOUGH THIS AIR MASS
ORIGINATED FROM MEXICO...EXPECT THAT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH WEAK WINDS WILL ALLOW A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF RADITIONAL
COOLING. MOS CONSENSUS SUPPORTS FORECASTING THU MINS BELOW
FREEZING...WITH MTN TEMPS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY
RESPOND AFTER SUNRISE THU...STRONG INSOLATION AND STEADY WAA
SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EAST AND U50S WEST.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
I USED THE 06Z GFS AND HPC GUIDANCE PRIMARILY FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE NEW 12Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WILL
TREND FORECAST TOWARD THE 12Z SOLUTION. GFS SFC PATTERN ON FRI WILL
BRING DEEP GULF MOISTURE ACROSS LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE
MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW
AND FUEL SHRA ALONG THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. LIGHT MODEL QPF
BEGINS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRI NIGHT AS MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE
FLOW INCREASES. THE INHERITED FORECAST ADVERTISED SCT HIGHER
ELEVATION SHRA LATE FRI EVENING WITH CHCS SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN THE SAME TIMING. PEAK PERIOD OF SHRA
SHOULD COME DURING THE DAY ON SAT...WILL ADVERTISE LIKELY MTN POPS
WITH SOLID CHC EAST.

THE 12Z GFS IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SAT
AND SAT EVENING THAN THE 0Z AND 6Z RUNS. I WILL FAVOR A DRIER
SOLUTION THROUGH THE LATTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST ALONG WITH
STALLING THE FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD
EVENTUALLY PROVIDE THE BREEDING GROUNDS FOR AN WEAK WAVE OR LOW TO
DEVELOP BY TUES. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...FORECASTS POPS OF SCHC
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PROVE TO BE THE BEST
ACTION AT THIS POINT.

AVIATION...
TRICKY AND ACTIVE TAF PERIOD IN STORE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PRE
FRONTAL GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED AND SURFACE WINDS HAVE RESPONDED IN
THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE. ALSO...DECENT GUSTS NOTED AS GOOD VERTICAL
MIXING TAKING PLACE WHILE STRONG H85 JET SHIFTS EASTWARD.

MAIN CHALLENGE THIS EVENING AND EARLY MORNING INCLUDE TIMING OF
CLOUD BAND AND POTENTIAL FOR MVR TRANSITIONING TO IFR. ALSO...HOW
MUCH WIND WILL CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN AFTER SUNSET. RIGHT NOW...THINK
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS LOW LEVEL WINDS AND PRECIP SHOULD
KEEP LOWEST LEVELS RELATIVELY DRY. SHORT TERM MODELS HINT AT A LULL
IN WINDS AFTER SUNSET FOR A COUPLE HOURS...BUT WITH 65 KT LOW LEVEL
JET TRANSITIONING THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH OVERTURNING COLD
FRONT BEGINNING AROUND 03Z...WILL LEAVE ALL TAF WINDS STRONG AND
GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING. IN FACT...BUFKIT HAS 2K FT WINDS ON THE
ORDER OF 50-60 KTS SO HAVE INCLUDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL
SITES BUT KAVL AND KHKY. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY BEHIND
FRONT THROUGH 18Z AS NW FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS
IN...HOWEVER EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS AROUND
15Z.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WIND ADVISORY FOR GAZ010-017 UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR GAZ018-026-028-029 UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065 UNTIL
     MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ034>037-054>057-066>072-082 UNTIL 6 AM
     WEDNESDAY.
SC...WIND ADVISORY FOR SCZ001>003 UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR SCZ004>014-019 UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...JDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
612 AM EST TUE JAN 17 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-172300-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
612 AM EST TUE JAN 17 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR FURTHER DETAILS...PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SPSGSP AND WIND
ADVISORY...NPW...ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
904 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 S LAURENS             34.39N 82.03W
01/17/2006                   LAURENS            SC   AMATEUR RADIO

            PORCH OF P.O. BLOWN INTO ROAD 75 TO 80 FT.

&&

07