Wind Advisory 19, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WWUS72 KGSP 120336
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1036 PM EST SAT NOV 11 2006

...STRONG AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...

.IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THESE
WINDS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.

NCZ033-048>050-052-053-063>065-501-503-505-507-509-121145-
/O.CAN.KGSP.LW.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-061112T0800Z/
/O.EXT.KGSP.WI.Y.0019.061112T0336Z-061113T0000Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...WAYNESVILLE...
ASHEVILLE...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE...LAKE LURE
1036 PM EST SAT NOV 11 2006

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS
CANCELLED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY. THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY. 

SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE...TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOME GUSTS COULD
APPROACH 50 TO 55 MPH AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$

NCZ059-121145-
/O.CAN.KGSP.LW.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-061113T0000Z/
/O.EXB.KGSP.WI.Y.0019.061112T0336Z-061113T0000Z/
NORTHERN JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SYLVA
1036 PM EST SAT NOV 11 2006

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY. THE
LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE...TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOME GUSTS COULD
APPROACH 50 MPH AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$

NCZ051-120445-
/O.CAN.KGSP.LW.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-061113T0000Z/
SWAIN-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CHEROKEE
1036 PM EST SAT NOV 11 2006

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS
CANCELLED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY. 

$$

SCZ002-003-121145-
/O.EXT.KGSP.WI.Y.0019.061112T0336Z-061113T0000Z/
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
1036 PM EST SAT NOV 11 2006

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY. 

A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS EVENING WILL
RESULT IN WIND SHIFTING TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION AND INCREASING.
THE WINDS MAY INCREASE EVEN MORE LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS MAY INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH...WITH WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING AS HIGH AS
50 MPH DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$

SCZ001-121145-
/O.EXT.KGSP.LW.Y.0046.061112T0336Z-061113T0000Z/
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
1036 PM EST SAT NOV 11 2006

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY...

THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY. 

A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS EVENING WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH
LATE TONIGHT. THE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THIS RANGE FOR MUCH OF
SUNDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO OVER 40 MPH POSSIBLE.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

$$

GAZ010-017-NCZ062-121145-
/O.CON.KGSP.LW.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-061113T0000Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-MACON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...FRANKLIN
1036 PM EST SAT NOV 11 2006

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY...

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY. 

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND WILL LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO OVER 40 MPH.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

$$

MOORE

000 
WWUS72 KGSP 120852
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
352 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006

...GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA TODAY...

.IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS BLOWING
FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TODAY.

NCZ051-058-121700-
/O.EXA.KGSP.LW.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-061113T0000Z/
SWAIN-GRAHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CHEROKEE
352 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE SMOKIES.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

$$

NCZ033-048>050-052-053-059-063>065-501-503-505-507-509-SCZ002-003-
121700-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-061113T0000Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-NORTHERN JACKSON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
POLK MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...WAYNESVILLE...
ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE...LAKE LURE
352 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. 

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH
WILL BE SEEN TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.

WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$

GAZ010-017-NCZ062-SCZ001-121700-
/O.CON.KGSP.LW.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-061113T0000Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-MACON-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...FRANKLIN
352 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

$$

000 
WWUS72 KGSP 121545
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1045 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006

...GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...

.IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS BLOWING
FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TODAY.

NCZ033-048>050-052-053-059-063>065-501-503-505-507-509-SCZ002-003-
122345-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-061113T0000Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-NORTHERN JACKSON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
POLK MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...WAYNESVILLE...
ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE...LAKE LURE
1045 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. 

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH WILL
BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.

WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$

GAZ010-017-NCZ051-058-062-SCZ001-122345-
/O.CON.KGSP.LW.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-061113T0000Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-SWAIN-GRAHAM-MACON-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...CHEROKEE...
FRANKLIN
1045 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

$$

000 
WWUS72 KGSP 122021
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
321 PM EST SUN NOV 12 2006

...GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 700 PM EST...

.IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS BLOWING
FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

NCZ033-048>050-052-053-059-063>065-501-503-505-507-509-SCZ002-003-
130000-
/O.CAN.KGSP.WI.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-061113T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KGSP.LW.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-061113T0000Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-NORTHERN JACKSON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
POLK MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...WAYNESVILLE...
ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE...LAKE LURE
321 PM EST SUN NOV 12 2006

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS UP 
TO 40 MPH UNTIL SUNSET THIS EVENING.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

$$

GAZ010-017-NCZ051-058-062-SCZ001-130000-
/O.CON.KGSP.LW.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-061113T0000Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-SWAIN-GRAHAM-MACON-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...CHEROKEE...
FRANKLIN
321 PM EST SUN NOV 12 2006

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL SUNSET THIS EVENING.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

$$

KRENTZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
312 PM EST SAT NOV 11 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT ENTERING WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AT THIS HOUR...IT SHOULD
BEGIN TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD AS UPPER TROF DIGS SOUTH.
BOTH NAM/WRF AND GFS SHOW THE APPROACHING UPPER TROF EVOLVING INTO A
CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT SAGS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SUNDAY.
LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS DEPICTS ONLY MINIMAL INSTABILITY BUT LAPS
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL WINDS ANALYZED ON THE
MORNING UPPER AIR PLOTS...SO WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE
A BRIEF STRONG WIND GUST WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTIVE TOWERS THAT
TRY TO DEVELOP. LAPS SOUNDINGS...HOWEVER...SHOW VERY LITTLE
INSTABILITY. WILL BRING CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER TO
ALL AREAS...WITH LIKELY CATEGORY RAIN CHANCES NORTHWEST AND TO ALL
OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDR...INTO THE INTERSTATE 77 REGION.
CONVECTION MAY GET A BOOST WITH UPPER JET INTERACTION...WITH CWFA IN
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL JET RIDING ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND INTO THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET ROUNDING THE
BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. WILL ALSO HOLD ON TO LOW CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...BUT
GRADUALLY LOWER TO NON-MENTIONABLE FRM THE WEST FOR NORTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPSTATE AFTER EARLY EVENING.

COLD AIR SHOULD BEGIN ENCROACHING STEADILY FROM LATE EVENING ONWARD
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH THE UPPER LOW. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
PROGD TO BE STRONG...WITH 85H TEMPERATURES SLIDING MORE THAN 15C AND
TO BELOW ZERO IN THE MOUNTAINS BY MORNING. 85H JET OF 40 KTS TO
NEARLY 50 KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...INTERACTING WITH WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE FOR POTENTIAL BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW. GROUND
NO DOUBT WARM AS WE HAVE BEEN BASKING IN NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURE
TERRITORY PAST FEW DAYS...SO ANY HEAVY SNOW THAT DEVELOPS AT FIRST
WILL LIKELY MELT QUICKLY.

MOISTURE LOOKS MARGINAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW PER MODEL CROSS
SECTIONS. GFS IS COOLER AND HAS BEST SNOWFALL POTENTIAL SIGNAL
NAM/WRF A BIT WARMER BUT 12Z RUN CAME IN COOLER THAN ITS
PREDECESSORS...AND OPENS UP THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WITH FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE. MINIMA MAY
APPROACH FREEZING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MIXING/CLOUDS MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP IN TEH EASTERN AREAS TO UPPER 40S OVERNIGHT...AND
MOST OF THE NON-MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS HOLDING IN THE 40S.

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE SUNDAY...THEN BOTH GFS AND
NAM/WRF WARM THE LOWER LEVELS CONSIDERABLY AS UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY.
ANY MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH SNOW LEVEL NOT
GETTING ANY LOWER THAN 2500 FEET...SHOULD SEE TRANSITION TO RAIN BY
LATE MORNING. WRAP AROUND AND FAVORABLE NORTHWEST-FLOW WIND PROFILE
WEAKEN LATE IN THE MORNING. WE WILL NOT CARRY ANYTHING BUT SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THE NORTHEST CWFA THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR LESS...AND MAINLY NEAR THE
TENNESSEE BORDER...ALTHOUGH WE WILL CARRY LIKELY CATEGORY RAIN
CHANCES IN THE NORTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

OF BIGGER CONCERN MAY BE WIND. WITH COLD ADVECTION AND FRONTAL
PASSAGE...EXPECT A QUICK TURN OF SURFACE WIND TO NORTHWEST AND AN
INCREASE IN SPEED. NAM/WRF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS LOOK A BIT
OVERDONE...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A NORTHWEST WIND LATE TONITE
INCREASING TO NEARLY 20 KTS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND 10 TO 15 KTS
MOST LOCATIONS. FOR SUNDAY...IN THE WAKE OF ANY DYNAMICS...STRONG
COLD ADVECTION/GRADIENT WIND MAY GET A BOOST FROM ENHANCED
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF ANY DYNAMICS THAT ARE PULLING AWAY. LOTS
OF DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION SHOWING UP ON MODEL CROSS SECTIONS.

WE WILL PLAN A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE GEORGIA MOUNTAINS...CLOSER
TO FROPA AT THIS TIME...AND ALL NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS
EXCEPT GRAHAM FRM 7 PM TO 3 AM. AFTER 3 AM...A FULL-FLEDGED WIND ADVISORY
GOES INTO EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATION
FOOTHILL MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...PLUS THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY
REGION AS WELL AS  THE PICKENS/GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH 7 PM
SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE GEORGIA MOUNTAINS
THROUGH 7 PM SUNDAY...AND FOR THE OCONEE MOUNTAINS PLUS THE FAR
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS EXCEPT GRAHAM THROUGH 7 PM SUNDAY.
DESPITE THE COLD ADVECTION EARLY...THE DAY SHOULD STILL BE OFF TO A
WARM START AND STRONG DOWNSLOPE SHOULD AID IN WARMING THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
TO ABOVE NORMAL MAXES ONCE AGAIN. MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S/50S WITH CLOUDS AND EARLY
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
NAM WRF AND THE GFS. THE GFS TRACKS THE UPPER CLOSED LOW NORTHEAST
ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH DAY 3 BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN TUESDAY EVENING. THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND HAS THE
UPPER LOW MOVING BASICALLY DUE EAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND
STALLING INTO THE ATLANTIC HIGH. THIS NAM SOLUTION SEEM A LITTLE
SUSPECT BASED ON THE CLIMATOLOGICAL WEATHER PATTERN AND THE TENDENCY
OF NORTHERN WAVES PICKING UP THE SOUTHERN CLOSED LOWS. SO...WILL
GIVE THE GFS MORE WEIGHT FOR GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

AFTER THE LINGERING WRAP AROUND SHOWERS DISSIPATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING...MONDAY WILL BEGIN WITH A SHORTWAVE
STACKED RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE CWFA. THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE
WAS SELECTED FOR MAX TEMPS MONDAY AS THE OPERATIONAL FEEL INLINE
WITH THE MAXIMUM OF ALL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. DEEP LAYERED
SUBSIDENCE WILL BE HIGH AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY REACH AROUND
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH ONLY SCATTERED CIRRUS MOVING IN BY THE
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER YET WEAKER MINI RIDGE MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING BEFORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT
OF A DEEPENING MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TROF INCREASES MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON...THEREBY RETURNING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
TO AROUND NORMAL.

ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES AHEAD OF DEEPENING
H5 TROF AND CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS RAPIDLY ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE.
THE SFC LOW WILL QUICKLY OCCLUDE AND BECOME IN PHASE WITH UPPER LOW
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWING AROUND THIS SYSTEM AND BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE LARGE SCALE LIFT TO
REACH THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE ACROSS THE CWFA BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. POPS WILL BE IN THE LIKELY RANGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER STILL SEEMS REASONABLE WITH COUPLED DEEP
LAYERED OMEGA AND H5 TEMPS DROPPING DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN NC
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS DRY SLOT MOVES IN
TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A DECENT THICKNESS PACKING
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROF WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND A DEEP
THERMAL TROF WILL SLOWLY TRANSIT THE CWFA THROUGH FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SCENARIO WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
ORDER OF 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS WILL STEADILY THICKEN...WITH LOWERING CEILINGS THROUGH 04Z
AS FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SLOWER MOVEMENT OF FRONT HAS DELAYED ONSET OF
VCSH/SHRA REMARKS IN THE NEW 18Z TAFS...BUT NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL
FROM THE PREVIOUS SET. NO WORSE THAN VCSH INDICATED AT
KAND/KGSP/KGMU/KCLT...WHERE MODEL PRECIPITATION THE LIGHTEST...A
BRIEF PERIOD OF 6SM VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT KHKY AND KAVL 23Z TO 02Z
AS FRONT AND BETTER DYNAMICS AFFECT REGION. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
STAY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE DID ADVERTISE A BIT MORE WIND IN THE
18Z TAF SET THAN IN PREVIOUS PACKAGES...NAMELY FOR BETTER SUBSIDENCE
ADVERTISED ON CROSS SECTIONS/TIME HEIGHTS IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT AND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BETTER MIXING OCCURRING SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST...THEN
RAPIDLY TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH GUST
POTENTIAL ALL LOCATIONS IN COLD ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE AS BETTER
DYNAMICS WANE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ENSUES.

AIR FLOW WILL BE LARGELY SUBSIDENT ON SUNDAY...ENHANCING GUST
POTENTIAL EVEN MORE WITH NORTHERLY WINDS DOMINATING. AT KAVL...WE
ADVERTISE SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS...WITH GUST POTENTIAL WELL
INTO THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE FOR THE END OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE WRAPAROUND CLOUDS IMPACTING THE TENNESSEE BORDER
REGION COULD INVADE THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY...WE KEEP CEILINGS NO
WORSE THAN VFR THROUGH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD AT KAVL.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR GAZ010-017 FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM
     SUNDAY.
NC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ033-034-048>050-052>055-063>066-501-
     503-505-507-509 FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 3 AM SUNDAY.
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ033-034-048>050-052>055-063>066-501-503-
     505-507-509 FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY.
  ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ051-059-062 FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7
     PM SUNDAY.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR SCZ001 FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY.
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR SCZ002-003 FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...SAB
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...SAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
618 AM EST SAT NOV 11 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-121130-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
618 AM EST SAT NOV 11 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OUT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW OF THESE STORMS PRODUCE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
PENNIES OR WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. COLDER AIR SPILLING INTO THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT TONIGHT COULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. INCREASINGLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS WELL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

LINGERING WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 40 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WIND PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
311 PM EST SAT NOV 11 2006

NCZ033-048>052-058-120900-
AVERY-GRAHAM-HAYWOOD-MADISON-MITCHELL-SWAIN-YANCEY-
311 PM EST SAT NOV 11 2006

...WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE COUNTIES ALONG THE
TENNESSEE BORDER...AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THIS
UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

WHILE SNOW IS THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE...SOME HIGHER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. ANY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES WARM AND MOISTURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST.

WITH THE RECENT WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA...WINTRY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED...OCCURRING MAINLY ON ELEVATED AND SOME
GRASSY SURFACES. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING
UP TO AROUND AN INCH...AND WILL PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS MAY EXIST SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS POSSIBLE...AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WHICH WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

BSH