Wind Advisory 16, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WWUS72 KGSP 201937
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
337 PM EDT FRI OCT 20 2006

NCZ033-049-050-202045-
/O.EXP.KGSP.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-061020T2000Z/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE
337 PM EDT FRI OCT 20 2006

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. 

$$

NCZ048-053-065-501-503-505-507-509-202045-
/O.EXP.KGSP.LW.Y.0041.000000T0000Z-061020T2000Z/
MADISON-BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHEVILLE...HENDERSONVILLE...LAKE LURE
337 PM EDT FRI OCT 20 2006

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON. 
WIND GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

$$

NED

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
253 AM EDT FRI OCT 20 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE
REMAINS A HEALTHY PRESSURE COUPLET WITH THE LOW...AND IT/S A GOOD
THING THAT INSTABILITY WAS NOT GREATER OR IT COULD HAVE BEEN A VERY
INTERESTING MORNING CONVECTIVELY. AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE
APPALACHIANS...6 MB/6 HR PRESSURE RISES ALONG WITH STRONG CAA...AND
A 40 KT WNW 850 MB WIND FIELD SHOULD BE GOOD FOR A LOW END WIND
ADVISORY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. I WON/T BRING
THE ADVISORY INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF CALDWELL...BURKE AND MCDOWELL
COUNTIES...BUT I WILL INCREASE THOSE ZONES INTO THE WINDY RANGE.
OF COURSE...THIS MEANS A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES FOR THOSE
ZONES...AS WELL AS THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY.

ANY PCPN WILL HAVE COME TO AN END BY THE VALID TIME OF THE ZONES AND
LOOKING AT THE WRF SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD MIX OUT BY SUNRISE AS WELL. WILL STAY CLOSE TO MAV
MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY...THOUGH I WILL STEEPEN THE LAPSE RATES SOME IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. IN FACT...SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A
VERY NICE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES (PROBABLY FLAT-OUT SUNNY
CONSIDERING HOW LOW THE LAYER RH/S WILL BE) AND HIGHS JUST A HAIR
BELOW NORMAL WITH LIGHT WINDS. FROST WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE
NC MTNS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED.

SAT NIGHT AND SUN THE WRF AND GFS HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
THE AMOUNT OF PCPN THEY BRING ACROSS THE REGION. THE MASS FIELDS
REALLY ARE NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT...AND THE MAIN REASON FOR THE
DIFFERENCE APPEARS TO BE GULF COAST CONVECTION. THE GFS HAS QUITE A
BIT OF CONVECTIVE PCPN ALONG THE GULF COAST LATE SAT NGHT AND SUN.
OF COURSE...THE AIRMASS DOWNSHEAR OF THIS MCS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER RH THAN DOES THE WRF WHICH HAS NO MCS. AS A RESULT...THE LOW
AND MID LEVEL UPGLIDE SEEN ON BOTH MODELS RESULTS IN MORE OF A
RESPONSE OVER THE REGION ON THE WRF THAN ON THE GFS. CONSIDERING THE
STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE GULF COAST AND THE TENDENCY FOR THERE
TO BE MCS/S IN THAT AREA WITH THE PAST SEVERAL SYSTEMS...I/M SIDING
WITH THE GFS ON THIS ONE. THIS MEANS MUCH LOWER POPS LATE SAT AND
SUNDAY THAN IMPLIED BY THE WRF. WL STAY CLOSE TO MAV MAX TEMPS ON
SUN...A GOOD 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING DEEP TROF OVER THE EAST
DURING THE EARLY MEDIUM RANGE. TROF REMAINS OVER THE EAST BUT
FLATTENS THRU TIME AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE. 12Z GFS SHOWS ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPING WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING INTO THE AREA AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY. THIS A DEVIATION FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS SO WILL DISCOUNT
FOR NOW. MODEL STILL HAS ANOTHER SET OF WAVES MOVING IN ON THURSDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND MODERATES THRU WED. GULF LOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE THURSDAY SHORT WAVES AND MOVES TOWARD THE
AREA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WITH THE NEW RUN PRECIP MOVES IN FASTER
ON WEDNESDAY BUT WILL DISREGARD FOR NOW. THE BIG STORY REMAINS THE
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW
SHOWERS. 850 MB WIND FLOW A LITTLE BETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. TEMPS
AND THICKNESSES STILL SUPPORT SNOW WHILE SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND JET
DYNAMICS MAY PROVIDE A SYNOPTIC BOOST TO LIFT. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
WOULD BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL KEEP POP AT SLIGHT CHC FOR NOW AS
THIS IS STILL QUITE ANOMALOUS FOR LATE OCTOBER AND GFS HAS A KNOWN
COLD BIAS IN THE LATER PERIODS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT STILL APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SHOULD PASS ACROSS
THE CWFA BY EARLY MORNING. UNTIL IT DOES...MVFR CLOUDS SHOULD
DOMINATE ALL TAF SITES...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE AT ANY SITE
THROUGH 12Z. VCSH WILL CONTINUE AT THE CRITICAL KCLT TAF UNTIL
PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WAVE HAS PASSED
EAST...WHICH LIKELY WILL HAPPEN BY THE TIME THIS DISCUSSION HAS GONE
TO PRESS. MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT PROGD TO OVERSPREAD CWFA COINCIDENT
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOWING LOWER LEVELS
CLEARING RAPIDLY. WE WENT AHEAD AND ADVERTISED MVFR/TEMPO IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THE PREDAWN...AS VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS OFTEN
CRASH AROUND DAYBREAK. IT IS LIKELY THAT SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF KCLT. HOWEVER...WE TURN WINDS DRAMATICALLY TO THE WEST
THEN NORTHWEST FROM 12Z TO 15Z...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BECOME
VFR ALL LOCATIONS BY LATE MORNING. WINDS MAY GUST WITH ONSET OF COLD
ADVECTION AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT AT KAVL FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS ADVERTISED
ELSEWHERE. OUTLOOK PERIOD FEATURES LIGHT WINDS...MORE NORTHERLY
EXCEPT FOR WEST AT KAND...AND NEARLY CLEAR SKIES.

ALTHOUGH NOT SHOWN IN THIS TAF SET...CONDITIONS SEEM SET UP NICELY
FOR SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AT KAVL DUE FOG/STRATUS IN
THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME FOR SATURDAY MORNING AT KAVL WE HINT AT
IT IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD WITH A FEW015 DECK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ033-049-050 FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM
     FRIDAY.
  ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ034-048-053>055-065-066-501-503-505-
     507-509 FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM FRIDAY.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...SAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
335 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-201000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
335 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD BY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AREAS OF FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE FRIDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.