Wind Advisory 15, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WWUS72 KGSP 170750
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
350 AM EDT TUE OCT 17 2006

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-171600-
/O.EXT.KGSP.WI.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-061017T1600Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...
WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE
350 AM EDT TUE OCT 17 2006

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

A STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY AT
ELEVATIONS OF 3000 FEET OR HIGHER. A FEW GUSTS UP TO COULD REACH
50 MPH. MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...MEANWHILE...MAY NOT SEE WINDS NEARLY AS
STRONG AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$

MOORE

000 
WWUS72 KGSP 171518
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1118 AM EDT TUE OCT 17 2006

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-172000-
/O.EXT.KGSP.WI.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-061017T2000Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...
WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE
1118 AM EDT TUE OCT 17 2006

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON.

A STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 
AT ELEVATIONS OF 3000 FEET OR HIGHER. A FEW GUSTS UP TO COULD
REACH 50 MPH. MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...MEANWHILE...MAY NOT SEE WINDS
NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$

000 
WWUS72 KGSP 171938
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
338 PM EDT TUE OCT 17 2006

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-172045-
/O.CAN.KGSP.WI.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-061017T2000Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...
WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE
338 PM EDT TUE OCT 17 2006

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS
CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY. 

WINDS HAVE DECREASED UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
952 PM EDT MON OCT 16 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWS A LARGE CORE OF 50 TO 65 KT
85H WINDS EXTENDING FROM THE GULF COAST NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA...IN THE STRONGST WARM ADVECTION
REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE AROUND A TROPICAL-TYPE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH RARE TO GET HIGH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
JETS IN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
HOW STRONG WINDS WILL ACTUALLY BE REALIZED AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AS THE JET CORE IMPACTS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA LATER TONIGHT. LAPS SOUNDINGS AT PRESENT REVEAL
WINDS IN THE 40 TO 45 KT RANGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM SURFACE
LEVEL UP TO AROUND 80H MB...AND THE HIGHEST ACTUAL SURFACE WIND WE
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO FIND IS 24 MPH AT MOUNT MITCHELL...WITH A COUPLE
OF LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AT AROUND 10 MPH.

WE MENTION THIS BECAUSE SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS TIGHTEST
GRADIENT...AND COINDICENT HIGHEST SURFACE WIND...STILL WELL OFF TO
OUR SOUTHWEST. IT IS EXPECTED THAT WITH TIME...THE GRADIENT OVER
OUR CWFA WILL TIGHTEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP AND
WE MAY EVENTUALLY SEE WINDS APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA-LEVEL
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WHETHER WE ACTUALLY SEE 50 TO 65 KT WINDS IS
HIGHLY DOUBTFUL...BUT IF WE GET A CONVECTIVE ELEMENT OR TWO...IT
WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO BRING A 40 OR 50 MPH GUST TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WITH THIS UPDATE...WE WILL HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...EMPHASIZING ELEVATIONS OF 3500 FEET
OR MORE FOR GREATEST WIND POTENTIAL. WILL ALSO ISSUE A STATEMENT
FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH
WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING LOW END LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

UPSTREAM RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS PLENTY OF REFLECTIVITY ECHOES OVER
THE CWFA...YET SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN VERY LITTLE
RAINFALL AS LOWER LEVELS SLOW TO SATURATE. RAINGAGE NETWORKS HAVE
SHOWN RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS THUS FAR.
LAPS SOUNDINGS REVEAL THE MOUNTAINS HAVE FINALLY SATURATED ALMOST
TO THE SURFACE..SO WE EXPECT RAINFALL TO BEGIN ACCUMULATING MORE
STEADILY FROM NOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. EASTERN AREAS TOWARD
CHARLOTTE AND THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR STILL VERY DRY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...SO STILL SOME TIME TO GO BEFORE PRECIPITATION
BECOMES STEADY OR HEAVY THERE.

THE RAINFALL MAXIMUM IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE WAVE IN
MISSISSIPPI HAS MOVED LITTLE THUS FAR THIS EVENING...AND WHETHER
ANY OF THAT ACTUALLY AFFECTS OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA REMAINS TO
BE SEEN. WHAT IS APPAPRENT IS THAT ONGOING POP FORECAST STILL
LOOKS GOOD...AND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES IN THAT REGARD. FEW CHANGES
NEEDED TO THE OTHER FIELDS WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 240 PM EDT MON OCT 16 2006/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE IT/S TREND OF MOISTENING FROM THE TOP
DOWN FOR THE REST OF TODAY WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE AND INCREASED LLVL
UPGLIDE FLOW ENCROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. QUITE A DIFFERENCE NOTED
IN THE 16/12 UTC NAM/GFS MODEL RESPONSE WITH THE GFS MAXIMIZING QPF
ALONG AN AXIS FROM N GA INTO SC LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE NAM
ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS THE BEST FORCING CLOSER TO THE UPPER SUPPORT
AND OFF TO OUR WEST AND NORTH TONIGHT...WITH CONSIDERABLY LESS QPF
ACRS THE CWFA THROUGH 12 UTC TUE. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT MUCH OF THE
GFS PCPN MAX IS ATTRIBUTABLE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...BUT GIVEN
CURRENT LARGE PCPN AREA OFF TO OUR SW...HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
IT/S PROGRESS. AT ANY RATE...WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF RAMPING UP
TO CATEGORICAL POP EVERYWHERE TONIGHT AND LEAVE CAT POP IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY TUESDAY...GIVEN TIMING CONCERNS OF JUST WHEN
TO BRING IN THE BETTER MID/UPPER LVL DRYING.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH NAM AND GFS
DEVELOP A LOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE
NAM SLOWS DOWN THE FRONT DRAMATICALLY AND KEEPS LOTS OF LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND PRECIP OVER THE AREA DURING THE EVENING WHILE
THE GFS SWEEPS THE FRONT ON THROUGH. THINK THE LIFT ON THE NAM IS
OVERDONE...BUT SINCE THE GFS HAS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS EARLY
ON WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND KEEP CHC POP ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE EVENING...THEN DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHC AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. MODEL DIFFERENCES CREEP UP AGAIN THURSDAY AS NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. NAM MUCH FASTER THAN THE GFS BRINGING IN
PRECIP AS EARLY AS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL TREND TOWARD THE
SLOWER GFS SINCE IT APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO CONSENSUS.

AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT NOT VERY COLD. IN FACT WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THICKNESSES BOUNCE BACK
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE US THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE TROF AND ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SERIES WILL BE EXITING THE
AREA FRIDAY...WHILE THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND SERIES
MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON
SATURDAY WITH DRY COLD HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY.

PRECIP WITH THE FIRST FRONT ENDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.
PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY COULD BE HINDERED BY THE PRESENCE OF A GULF
LOW INHIBITING MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. WILL HAVE HIGHEST
POP OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS NEARER THE BETTER FORCING.
TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY...THEN NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY.

AVIATION...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BUT GIVE WAY TO VSBY/CIG
RESTRICTIONS WITHIN OVERSPREADING RAIN SHIELD LATER THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. LIKELY TO SEE CIGS
SETTLE INTO EITHER IFR OR LOW MVFR LATER TONIGHT WITH FREQUENT
REDUCTIONS TO AT LEAST MVFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND FOG. MOS GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS NO IMPROVEMENT IN PREDOMINANT LOW VSBY/CIGS THROUGH 18 UTC
TUESDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065 UNTIL 10 AM
     TUESDAY.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
602 AM EDT MON OCT 16 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-171015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
602 AM EDT MON OCT 16 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AS WELL. SOME OF THE
MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND RIDGE TOPS COULD HAVE GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ACCUMULATED RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN SOME HIGH WATER IN NORMALLY
FLOOD PRONE AREAS ON TUESDAY. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS AS WELL...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

MOORE