Wind Advisory 12, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WWUS72 KGSP 221437
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
937 AM EST WED MAR 22 2006

NCZ033-049-050-221700-
/O.CAN.KGSP.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-060322T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.LW.Y.0026.060322T1437Z-060322T1700Z/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE
937 AM EST WED MAR 22 2006

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY.
THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

WINDS LATE THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SPEEDS OF 15 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 40 MPH.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP ON
AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

$$

NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-221545-
/O.CAN.KGSP.LW.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-060322T1700Z/
MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEROKEE...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...
SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE
937 AM EST WED MAR 22 2006

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS
CANCELLED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 45 MPH.

$$

NCZ034>037-054>057-066>072-082-SCZ007>009-012>014-019-222100-
/O.CON.KGSP.FZ.A.0002.060323T0600Z-060323T1200Z/
CALDWELL-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
POLK-RUTHERFORD-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...MARION...
MORGANTON...HICKORY...SALISBURY...COLUMBUS...RUTHERFORDTON...
SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE...
SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...
GREENWOOD
937 AM EST WED MAR 22 2006

...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA....AS WELL AS THE EASTERN HALF OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL UNPROTECTED CROPS AND
OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION. A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.

IF POSSIBLE...PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT SENSITIVE
VEGETATION.

$$
07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1007 PM EST TUE MAR 21 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLANNING UPDATE AT 11 PM TO CLEAN UP SHOWERS MOVING
OUT OF PIEDMONT DURING THE NEXT HOUR. STILL EXPECT
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG NORTHERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SO
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
FREEZE WATCH AND WARNING WILL REMAIN THE SAME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 909 PM EST TUE MAR 21 2006/

SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM AND ZONES HAVE JUST BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE SHOWERS
MOVING OUT OF MOUNTAINS AND INTO FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF
NORTH CAROLINA. STILL LOOKING FOR CONTINUATION OF A SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG MOUNTAIN BORDER COUNTIES.

00Z UPPER AIR STILL SHOWS GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION SO FREEZE
WARNING AND WATCH STILL LOOK GOOD. I THOUGHT ABOUT EXPANDING
WATCH AREA THROUGH REST OF UPSTATE BUT 18Z MAV GUIDANCE IS
A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUN. WAIT TO SEE HOW HANDLES
WEDNESDAY MINS TO SEE IF THIS IS A TREND.

PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 208 PM EST TUE MAR 21 2006/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW CROSS AREA AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
AREA IN NW FLOW IN ITS WAKE ON WED. COLD AIR WEDGE TO BE SCOURED AS
SURFACE FLOW BECOMES N AND DOWNSLOPE. UPSLOPE FLOW IMPROVES IN N NC
MTS...AND THICKNESS LEVELS FALL TO SUPPORT LIKELY SNOW THIS EVENING
.GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. ENOUGH UPSLOPE AND MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT ONE INCH OF SNOW...AND WILL ISSUE SNOW ADVISORY FROM AVERY
TO MADISON COUNTIES. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE AT OR
BELOW FREEZING ALMOST ALL OF FREEZE WATCH AREA IN LEE OF MTS NC AND
N LEE SC...AND CLOSE CALL UNION AND CHESTER COUNTIES IN SC...SO WILL
UPGRADE WATCH TO WARNING LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED. WIND WILL
PRECLUDE FROST. WED FEATURES A NEARLY CLEAR SKY WITH TEMPERATURES
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...THOUGH STILL BELOW NORMAL.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL CONCURRENCE THAT AN UNSEASONABLY
COOL PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT WITH A GRADUAL MODERATION THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. THIS THE CONSEQUENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK MAINTAINING THE COOL NW FLOW. THE TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO
ROTATE SE AND THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...LOOKS LIKE THE MOUNTAINS
WILL STAY UNDER THE GUN FOR PERHAPS SOME PERSISTENT NW FLOW SNOW
SHOWERS BEGINNING THU NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING INTO SAT. AREAS
OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO HAVE A SHOT AT SOME SCATTERED
PRECIP THU NIGHT AS A RATHER STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. MOISTURE LACKING...SO DYNAMICS ALONE ALONE WILL
HAVE TO FORCE PRECIP. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH WITH VORT MAX...ESPECIALLY THE NAM. HOWEVER...GFS
REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH ITSELF IN GENERATING DECENT LIFT/PRECIP
THU EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THAT SPREADS E
OVER ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THU NIGHT. BEST OMEGA IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SO EXPECT ANY PRECIP WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND EXPAND THAT IDEA INTO THE SC UPSTATE AND NC
FOOTHILLS. PRECIP NOMOGRAM WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW
EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE...WILL GENERALLY MENTION
SNOW SHOWERS MOUNTAINS WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE. GFS
SUGGESTING A MOIST N/NE FLOW COULD EVEN TRIGGER SOME LIGHT PRFECIP
ON FRI AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS E OF FLORIDA WITH THE HINT OF AN
INVERTED TROUGH POKING THIS WAY. FOR NOW...WILL CONFINE MENTIONABLE
POPS TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE SNOW A POSSIBILITY.
AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...EXPECTED NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS INTO SAT
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THEN DRY EVERYWHERE THROUGH MON. WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST ON TUE ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT.

USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE TO GENERATE MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGH FRI
THEN STAYED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE NUMBERS. WILL HAVE SEVERAL
NIGHTS WHERE FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR WED NIGHT FOR MOST ZONES
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SLIGHTLY WARMER
UPSTATE FROM GREENVILLE COUNTY...WEST.

AVIATION...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...ENDING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. DOWNGLIDE ONLY MINIMAL...AND EXPECT ONLY VERY GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS UNTIL LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO N AND WEAK
DOWNSLOPE SETS UP LATE EVENING. BY WED MONRING WIND VEERS FURTHER TO
NE...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GONE LEAVING ONLY FEW CIRRUS. KAVL TO
BECOME QUITE GUSTY FROM LATE EVENING ON. DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION
RATHER LIMITED...SO HAVE UNDERCUT NAM BUFKIT GUSTS BY ABOUT 5 KNOTS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FOR NCZ034>037-054>057-068>072-082 UNTIL 9 AM
     WEDNESDAY.
  ...FREEZE WATCH FOR NCZ034>037-054>057-066>072-082 FROM 1 AM
     THURSDAY TO 7 AM THURSDAY.
  ...SNOW ADVISORY FOR NCZ033-048>050 UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FOR SCZ007>009-012>014-019 FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO
     7 AM THURSDAY.
  ...FREEZE WARNING FOR SCZ008-009-013-014 UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...VAD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
411 AM EST TUE MAR 21 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-220915-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
411 AM EST TUE MAR 21 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FREEZE ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT...AND INTO PART OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. A FREEZE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS THE CHANCE OF AN EARLY MORNING FROST AND/OR FREEZE ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.