Tornado Warning 1, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WWUS52 KGSP 180043
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
741 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2006

SCC059-180115-
/O.CON.KGSP.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-060118T0115Z/
LAURENS SC-
741 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2006

...A TORNADO WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 815 PM EST FOR LAURENS COUNTY...

AT 737 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER INDICATED TWO 
POSSIBLE TORNADOES OVER LAURENS COUNTY.  ONE TORNADO WAS LOCATED 2 
MILES WEST OF CROSS HILL...OR ABOUT 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF GREENWOOD. 
THE OTHER WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF LAURENS. BOTH WERE MOVING 
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. 

THE TORNADOES WILL BE NEAR...
  CROSS KEYS AROUND 745 PM EST...
  JOANNA AROUND 800 PM EST...

THESE RAPIDLY MOVING TORNADOES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAIN AND 
VERY LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE THE TORNADO BEFORE 
SEEKING SHELTER. IT WILL LIKELY BE TOO LATE MOBILE HOMES AND 
VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR STURDIER SHELTER. OTHERWISE...GO TO 
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST LEVEL OF YOUR HOME OR PLACE OF 
BUSINESS.

LAT...LON 3450 8180 3449 8180 3443 8172 3445 8170
      3441 8163 3440 8154 3428 8199 3428 8202
      3437 8205

$$
LANE

000 
WWUS52 KGSP 180056
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
756 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2006

SCC059-180115-
/O.CON.KGSP.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-060118T0115Z/
LAURENS SC-
756 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2006

...A TORNADO WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 815 PM EST FOR LAURENS COUNTY...

AT 747 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF
JOANNA...OR ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LAURENS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH.

THIS RAPIDLY MOVING TORNADO WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAIN AND 
VERY LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE THE TORNADO BEFORE 
SEEKING SHELTER. IT WILL LIKELY BE TOO LATE MOBILE HOMES AND 
VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR STURDIER SHELTER. OTHERWISE...GO TO 
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST LEVEL OF YOUR HOME OR PLACE OF 
BUSINESS.

LAT...LON 3450 8180 3449 8180 3443 8172 3445 8170
      3441 8163 3440 8154 3428 8199 3428 8202
      3437 8205

$$
LANE

000 
WWUS52 KGSP 180103
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
802 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2006

SCC059-180112-
/O.CAN.KGSP.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-060118T0115Z/
LAURENS SC-
802 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2006

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR LAURENS COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE TORNADO WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED 
OUT OF THE COUNTY. 

LAT...LON 3450 8180 3449 8180 3443 8172 3445 8170
      3441 8163 3440 8154 3428 8199 3428 8202
      3437 8205

$$
LANE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
239 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
TONIGHT AND WED...
MAIN FEATURE TO DEAL WITH IN THE NEAR TERM IS STRONGLY FORCED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDING S THROUGH EASTERN KY...TN AND
AL. 12Z GFS/NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING FRONT SLOWLY EAST AND
MOVE IT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 07Z TIMEFRAME.
WIND FIELDS QUITE IMPRESSIVE OUT AHEAD OF FRONT IN TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. H850 JET BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KTS IS FORECAST.
ALTHOUGH SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY QUITE IMPRESSIVE...INSTABILITY
IS MINIMAL WITH ONLY ABOUT 100J OF ELEVATED CAPE INDICATED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THEREFORE...NOT MUCH OF A THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
SEVERE STORMS AND NO SPC OUTLOOK. CANNOT NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE WHERE A CELL MAXIMIZES MOMENTUM TRANSFER. ALSO A BOTTOM
UP TORNADO SPIN UP CANT BE RULED OUT. TO ADDRESS THE LARGE SCALE
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED....PLAN TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT E OF THE MOUNTAINS AND EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE
MOUNTAINS UNTIL 05Z. BUFKIT SOUNDS INDICATE DURING THE WINDOW OF THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT MOMENTUM TRANSPORT TO 40KTS OR BETTER
LIKELY. A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY. LOOKS LIKE QPF
SHOULD BE IN THE 1.25-1.75 INCH RANGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND .75 TO
1.00 INCH OUTSIDE MOUNTAINS. LOOKS LIKE RIVERS/STREAMS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO HANDLE THIS...THOUGH FRENCH BROAD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
THEREFORE...NO FLOOD WATCH.

COLD AIR WILL SPILL IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH SNOW
LEVELS FALLING TO BELOW 1000 FT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6AM. EXPECT
SOME UPSLOPE (NW FLOW) SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE NC MOUNTAINS
TOWARD SUNRISE AND CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY WED. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED
AND STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
SNOWFALL TO LESS THAN 1 INCH. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE THAT A
DEEP MIXED LAYER WILL DEVELOP ON WED ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT. WILL SEE WINDS GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ALL AREAS.
WILL LIKELY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY ON WED...BUT WILL ALLOW LATER
SHIFTS TO HOIST THAT HEADLINE.

WILL STAY CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MOS TEMPS FOR OVERNIGHT MIN/MAX. USED
ETA12 TO POPULATE WIND GRIDS WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

WED NIGHT...THE GFS AND NAM BRING 1028+MB HIGH NORTH...BECOMING
CENTERED ALONG THE SC COAST BY 12Z THU. ALTHOUGH THIS AIR MASS
ORIGINATED FROM MEXICO...EXPECT THAT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH WEAK WINDS WILL ALLOW A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF RADITIONAL
COOLING. MOS CONSENSUS SUPPORTS FORECASTING THU MINS BELOW
FREEZING...WITH MTN TEMPS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY
RESPOND AFTER SUNRISE THU...STRONG INSOLATION AND STEADY WAA
SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EAST AND U50S WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
I USED THE 06Z GFS AND HPC GUIDANCE PRIMARILY FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE NEW 12Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WILL
TREND FORECAST TOWARD THE 12Z SOLUTION. GFS SFC PATTERN ON FRI WILL
BRING DEEP GULF MOISTURE ACROSS LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE
MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW
AND FUEL SHRA ALONG THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. LIGHT MODEL QPF
BEGINS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRI NIGHT AS MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE
FLOW INCREASES. THE INHERITED FORECAST ADVERTISED SCT HIGHER
ELEVATION SHRA LATE FRI EVENING WITH CHCS SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN THE SAME TIMING. PEAK PERIOD OF SHRA
SHOULD COME DURING THE DAY ON SAT...WILL ADVERTISE LIKELY MTN POPS
WITH SOLID CHC EAST.

THE 12Z GFS IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SAT
AND SAT EVENING THAN THE 0Z AND 6Z RUNS. I WILL FAVOR A DRIER
SOLUTION THROUGH THE LATTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST ALONG WITH
STALLING THE FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD
EVENTUALLY PROVIDE THE BREEDING GROUNDS FOR AN WEAK WAVE OR LOW TO
DEVELOP BY TUES. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...FORECASTS POPS OF SCHC
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PROVE TO BE THE BEST
ACTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...
TRICKY AND ACTIVE TAF PERIOD IN STORE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PRE
FRONTAL GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED AND SURFACE WINDS HAVE RESPONDED IN
THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE. ALSO...DECENT GUSTS NOTED AS GOOD VERTICAL
MIXING TAKING PLACE WHILE STRONG H85 JET SHIFTS EASTWARD.

MAIN CHALLENGE THIS EVENING AND EARLY MORNING INCLUDE TIMING OF
CLOUD BAND AND POTENTIAL FOR MVR TRANSITIONING TO IFR. ALSO...HOW
MUCH WIND WILL CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN AFTER SUNSET. RIGHT NOW...THINK
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS LOW LEVEL WINDS AND PRECIP SHOULD
KEEP LOWEST LEVELS RELATIVELY DRY. SHORT TERM MODELS HINT AT A LULL
IN WINDS AFTER SUNSET FOR A COUPLE HOURS...BUT WITH 65 KT LOW LEVEL
JET TRANSITIONING THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH OVERTURNING COLD
FRONT BEGINNING AROUND 03Z...WILL LEAVE ALL TAF WINDS STRONG AND
GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING. IN FACT...BUFKIT HAS 2K FT WINDS ON THE
ORDER OF 50-60 KTS SO HAVE INCLUDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL
SITES BUT KAVL AND KHKY. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY BEHIND
FRONT THROUGH 18Z AS NW FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS
IN...HOWEVER EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS AROUND
15Z.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WIND ADVISORY FOR GAZ010-017 UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR GAZ018-026-028-029 FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
     WEDNESDAY.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065 UNTIL
     MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ034>037-054>057-066>072-082 FROM 6 PM
     TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.
SC...WIND ADVISORY FOR SCZ001>003 UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR SCZ004>014-019 FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
     WEDNESDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...LG/NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...SBK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
612 AM EST TUE JAN 17 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-172300-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
612 AM EST TUE JAN 17 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR FURTHER DETAILS...PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SPSGSP AND WIND
ADVISORY...NPW...ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.