Snow Advisory 4, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
306 PM EST MON JAN 30 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...
STRONG SHORT WAVE DIGGING OUT A TROF OVER THE EAST WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVE THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING.
STRONG COLD POOL WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL CREATE SOME STEEP LAPSE
RATES...BUT INSTABILITY REMAINS MINIMAL ESPECIALLY WITH THE
CURRENTLY CRASHING DEW POINTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED SVR STORM...BUT CHANCE REMAINS LOW. LIKELY POP LOOKS
GOOD THIS EVENING. DRY SLOT AND DEVELOPING NWLY FLOW WILL END PRECIP
CHC OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT LIKELY POP TO CONTINUE OVER AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE MTNS
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND NWLY FLOW. AS COLD AIR RUSHES INTO THE
NC MTNS...RAIN CHANGES TO SHOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...SNOW LEVELS
DO NOT FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...ESP FROM
FRENCH BROAD SOUTH. H85 TEMPS NOT VERY COLD AND NWLY FLOW NOT VERY
STRONG. GIVEN THE TIME IT WILL TAKE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
DEVELOP...DO NOT EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW TONIGHT...EXPECT MAYBE
IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

DECENT CAA AND DOWNWARD OMEGA DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT...SO IT SHOULD GET
QUITE WINDY OVER THE MTNS. HOWEVER...H85 WINDS NOT FORECAST TO REACH
50 KTS. THEREFORE WILL ONLY GO WITH A WIND ADV FOR THE NC MTNS AND A
LAKE WIND ADV FOR THE NC FOOTHILLS AND SC/NE GA MTNS. WILL BEGIN
THESE ADVISORIES AT MIDNIGHT.

&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
TUESDAY...
MODELS INDICATE THAT NW FLOW...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO TUE MORNING OVER THE TN BORDER COUNTIES. HOWEVER...CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW THAT BEST MOISTURE WILL BE BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z...SO
EXPECT THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS WILL END AFTER ABOUT 16Z.
WINDS WILL REMAIN A FACTOR THROUGH TUE MORNING WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATING GUST POTENTIAL TO 40KT. SO WILL CONTINUE WIND ADVISORY
THROUGH THE DAY. DOWNSLOPING...DRYING FLOW WILL DISSIPATE CLOUDS
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...SO EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THERE. USED
A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

TUE NIGHT-THU...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVING OVER AND THEN E OF THE REGION. GENERALLY CLEAR TUE
NIGHT THROUGH WED. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE
INCREASE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...12Z GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
RAIN FREE THROUGH THU...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
SOME LIGHT...WARM ADVECTION RAIN SHOWERS COULD ARRIVE THU
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ALL AREAS THU NIGHT AS UPPER SHORT
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT.
DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT APPEAR TO MOVE E OF THE REGION BY 12Z FRI.

FRI-MON
12Z GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE LOCKING ONTO THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
SOLUTION FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...THOUGH EXACT TIMING STILL UNDER
QUESTION. MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES SE ON FRI CARVING
OUT A SIGNICANT UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OHIO VALLEY REGION BY 12Z
SAT. ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH AN INTENSIFYING LOW MOVING NE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A
TRAILING STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
12Z GFS SLOWER WITH THIS SCENARIO. BECAUSE OF TIMING CONCERNS...HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FROM FRI INTO SAT. HOWEVER...IF 12Z GFS
TIMING IS CORRECT FRI COULD BE ESSENTIALLY DRY WITH A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND MAYBE THUNDERSTORMS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT.

NEVERTHELESS...COLD FRONT SWEEPS BY AFTER MIDDAY SATURDAY WITH
CLEARING CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAINS. A PERIOD OF NW FLOW
UPSLOPE SNOW APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE TN BORDER COUNTIES SAT AND SAT
NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUN AND MON.

STAYED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE A ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING. WILL BE BKN SHOWER
COVERAGE AND MAYBE EVEN SOME THUNDER...BUT NOT ENUF CHC TO PUT INTO
TAFS JUST YET. VSBY/CIGS MAY GO DOWN TO MVFR IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP...BUT LOOKS LIKE LOW VFR BEST CHC. THE EXCEPTION IS
KAVL WHERE MVFR CIGS LIKELY DURING THE RAIN. OTHERWISE WIND BIGGEST
CONCERN WITH TAFS. GENERALLY LIGHT SWLY WIND VEERS TO WLY WITH THE
FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN NW BEHIND IT BY LATE EVENING. KAND
REMAINS WLY WITH LEE TROF. NOT EXPECTING ANY GUSTS UNTIL 13Z OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS...BUT GUSTS PICK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR KAVL. VFR CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT XCPT KAVL WHERE THEY LINGER WITH THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPVALLEY FLOW. EXPECT ANY SNOW SHOWERS TO REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE KAVL TAF SITE.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR GAZ010-017 FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY TO 6
     PM TUESDAY.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065 FROM MIDNIGHT
     TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY.
  ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ034-054-055-066-067 FROM MIDNIGHT
     TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR SCZ001>003 FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY TO 6
     PM TUESDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...GABRIC
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
637 AM EST MON JAN 30 2006

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-311145-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
637 AM EST MON JAN 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. REFER TO CAENPWGSP
FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. THE DENSE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE IN
THE MID MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
AND DEEPEN RAPIDLY OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. COLDER AIR WILL BE
BROUGHT SOUTH ON A WINDY NORTH WIND. NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW ALONG THE
TENNESSEE BORDER AREAS LATE TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL...MAINLY FROM MADISON COUNTY NORTHWARD TO BANNER ELK AND
BEECH MOUNTAIN.

EXPECT THE WIND TO INCREASE TONIGHT IN THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS INTO THE SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF THE MODELS GO WITH
WIND ANY STRONGER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW IN THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS BORDERING
TENNESSEE WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END IN THE MID DAY HOURS ON
TUESDAY. 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE COMMON FROM MADISON COUNTY TO AVERY COUNTY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END IN THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS AGAIN AS SNOW DURING THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT...BUT ANY
REPORTS OF SNOWFALL OR WIND PROBLEMS WOULD BE HELPFUL.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ034>037-054>057-066>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-311145-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-CALDWELL-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
637 AM EST MON JAN 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. REFER TO CAENPWGSP
FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. THE DENSE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE IN
THE MID MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
NORTHEAST GEORGIA...UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
STORMS SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85.  AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN RAPIDLY OVER
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE WIND COULD BECOME BREEZY LATE
TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE
START OF THE WEEKEND. TOO EARLY TO TELL THE EXTENT OF THE WEATHER
IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT AS FAR AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND THE
EXTENT OF ANY POTENTIAL THUNDER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT.

DEO

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