Severe Thunderstorm Warning 519, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1030 AM EDT WED AUG 9 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
CWFA EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF MAIN CONVERGENCE AXIS THIS AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH STALLED BNDRY BUT BROAD AREA OF DEVELOPING LLVL
CONVERGENCE DOES WORK BACK INTO SW NC LATE IN THE DAY. GENERALLY THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN WEAKLY FORCED...WITH PERHAPS
POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ACRS THE SW 1/2 OF THE CWFA. LLVL
FLOW DOES VEER TO SE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO LIFT MAY BE
AIDED BY UPSLOPE. DEEP CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL IN NO DOUBT GET A
LATER START ACRS THE NC PIEDMONT/FTHLS BASED ON EXPANDING MVFR DECK
WITHIN MOIST NE FLOW...WHICH WILL BECOME SCT-BKN CU LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL...CURRENT POP MAGNITUDE OF SCATTERED AND
ORIENTATION WOULD SEEM TO BE ON TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 222 AM EDT WED AUG 9 2006/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE IS W OF AREA WITH TROF E...KEEPING REGION IN WEAK NW
FLOW ALOFT. WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NW TO SE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AND MODELS BRING A
WEAK UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN-EVE WITH SFC BOUNDARY
OVER S CWA. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FCST. ISOLD SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE LATE AFTN-MID EVE. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER NE
CWA WHERE WEAK HI PRES RIDGES IN BEHIND SFC BOUNDARY. AS ONE SFC
BOUNDARY WASHES OUT S OF AREA THU...ANOTHER ONE MOVES IN FROM THE
N FRI. EXPECT SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION TO CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
USED MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HPC HAS FAVORED THE 00 UTC RUN OF THE ECMWF AGAIN TODAY. AFTER
COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WE WILL REMOVE ALL POPS
FROM THE SUN-MON PERIODS. THIS ACTUALLY AGREES WITH THE HPC FRONTAL
POSITION WHICH IS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE
GUIDANCE GRIDS MAINTAIN POPS THAT SEEM A BIT TOO HIGH CONSIDERING
THE SYNOPTIC REGIME. BY NEXT TUE THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH RECOVERY ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

AVIATION...
EXPECT AVIATION WEATHER TRENDS THIS MORNING TO BE VERY SIMILAR...IF
NOT IDENTICAL...TO TUE MORNING. MVFR VISBY HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AT
KAVL...AND EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST LIFR CIG/VISBY THERE
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VIS EXPECTED AT
OTHER TERMINALS THIS MORNING. DESPITE HEALTHY MOS POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...ALL WILL DEPEND UPON HOW STRONGLY THE ATM DESTABILIZES
LATER TODAY. WITH A MOIST E/NE LOW LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP NORTH OF
THE FRONT...WE MAY SEE CU/STRATOCU DEVELOP QUICKLY AS HEATING
COMMENCES. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL PUT A DAMPER
ON DESTABILIZATION...WHILE ORGANIZED SOURCES OF LIFT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO FIND. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF LEAVING
CONVECTION OUT OF THE FORECAST ATTM.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
350 AM EDT WED AUG 9 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-100800-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
350 AM EDT WED AUG 9 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND AND PENNY
SIZE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
209 PM EDT WED AUG 9 2006

NCZ082-091915-
UNION-
209 PM EDT WED AUG 9 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING UNION COUNTY...

AT 203 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MIDLAND...OR 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF UNC
CHARLOTTE. THIS STORM WAS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

DARCY/DICARLO