Severe Thunderstorm Warning 506, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
157 PM EDT SUN AUG 6 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THERE SHOULD BE NO
TRIGGERS OTHER THAN AFTERNOON HEATING TO GET TSTMS MOVING
AGAIN TODAY.  CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET
BUT WILL BEGIN AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON BASED ON PERSISTENCE.
CENTER OF HIGH IS OVER EASTERN COUNTIES SO EXPECT MOST CONVECTION
OVER WESTERN COUNTIES AND NC MOUNTAINS. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
UPSLOPE AFFECT BUT WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT SO I THINK MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST.

TEMPS ARE BASED PRIMARILY ON PERSISTENCE AND MAV GUIDANCE.
BASICALLY WE ARE LOOKING AT ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS
FOR MONDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST USA
RETROGRADES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE FROM THE CURRENT
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...
PARTICULARLY THE MOUNTAINS...AND CHANCE POPS WILL BE ALLOWED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE EAST OF
A LEE TROUGH AND INTERSTATE 77. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FORM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY...SUPPORTING CHANCE POPS INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY CROSSES THE AREA...AGAIN WITH THE BEST
INSTABILITY TO THE EAST. ON WEDNESDAY THE FRONT MOVES FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH OF THE AREA TO LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR...WHILE CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FROM SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL AS
HEIGHTS FALL AND THE FRONT BRINGS CLOUDS AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES FURTHER ON DAYS 4
THROUGH 7. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND OUR
VICINITY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT CHANCE POPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
LINGERING AT NIGHT. ON FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH...MOVING SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA ON SATURDAY...STALLING
TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. CHANCE POPS WILL BE CARRIED FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL
BE CARRIED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RISE FROM NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AS THE STATIONARY FRONT WEAKENS...THEN
FALL TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEW
FRONT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLIGHTLY FROM THURSDAY MORNING
TO FRIDAY MORNING AS SKY COVER DIMINISHES...THEN WILL INCREASE TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY MORNING AS CLOUD COVER ACCOMPANIES
THE FRONT....WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN WEAK COLD
ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...

AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS IMPVG THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS RISE...BUT ALSO EXPECT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVIY WITH BEST ACTION IN THE UPSTATE AND IN THE
WRN NC MTNS.  AFT SUNSET ACTIVIY WILL DSIPT RAPIDLY. LEAVING
RESIDUAL HIGH SC OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT LOW MORNING STRATUS BEFORE
SUNRISE BURING OFF WITH MORNING HEATING THEN A REPEAT OF CONVECTION
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JAT/VAD
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...VAD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
341 AM EDT SUN AUG 6 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-070745-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
341 AM EDT SUN AUG 6 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY
OF FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING
STORMS...MAINLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY.

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