Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1001 PM EST FRI FEB 3 2006

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
CONVECTIVE LINE AHEAD OF DEVELOPING AL LOW PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN
ITSELF AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AROUND MIDNIGHT.
LIGHTNING RATES HAVE BEGUN TO DECREASE AS THE LINE MOVES INTO LESS
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS DO INDICATE THAT A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE WILL BUILD OVER THE CWA TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL ENERGY I WILL
ADD A MENTION TO TS ACROSS THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND WILL SLOW THE
MENTION OF NC PIEDMONT CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...I WILL KEEP TIMING
AND WORDING OF THE POP AND WX ROUGHLY THE SAME THROUGH THE FIRST
PERIOD.

SCT SKY AND LIGHT WIND HAS ALLOWED OBS TEMPS TO FALL WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO OF FORECAST LOWS. ADDITIONAL COOLING SHOULD TAKE
PLACE VERY SLOWLY AND WILL ONLY COOL THE MIN GRID A COUPLE OF
CLICKS. I ALSO POPULATED WIND GRIDS WILL THE LATEST NAM12...WHICH
HAS DECREASED THE OVERNIGHT WINDS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 242 PM EST FRI FEB 3 2006)

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
SHORT WAVE TO OUR WEST DIGS AND MOVES TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT. SFC
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST STRENGTHENS AND MOVES EAST TOWARD THE AREA
THEN NORTH UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE AND SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS
WELL. MDLS PRETTY CLOSE IN TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE
HIGHEST POP IN THE WEST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THEN CATEGORICAL ALL AREAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SINCE LOW TRAVELS TO OUR WEST...NAM AND GFS BOTH
SHOW AN AREA OF INSTABILITY MOVING OVER THE SRN AND ERN SECTIONS
OVERNIGHT...LI/S NEAR ZERO WITH SOME POSITIVE CAPE ALONG WITH CROSS
TOTALS NEAR 25. HARD TO GET EXCITED ABOUT NIGHTTIME CONVECTION IN
THE WINTER...BUT CANNOT IGNORE THE GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP ISOLATED
THUNDER WORDING SRN AND ERN SECTIONS. THICKNESSES REMAIN IN THE
LIQUID CATEGORY TONIGHT. WINDS INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN...BUT
LOW LEVEL JET NEVER GETS ABOVE 40 KTS. ALSO...STRONGER WINDS HARDER
TO MIX DOWN IN WARM ADVECTION SCENARIO...SO NO WIND PROBLEMS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

NARROW FRONTAL BAND SHOWERS SHOULD BE DOWNSTREAM OF THE CWFA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FREEZING LVL CONTINUING TO LOWER IN THE
WRAP-AROUND PCPN ACRS THE MTNS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL BE FROM LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
TEMPS NEAR THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER FALL TO ABOUT -12C OR SO.
UPSLOPE FLOW NOT IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY WNW ABOUT 30 KTS...BUT THE
PROXIMITY OF DEEP MOISTURE...A CONNECTION TO THE GREAT LAKES...ALL
UNDER RATHER LOW AND CYCLONICALLY CURVED HEIGHTS...COULD STILL LEAD
TO SOME WARNING CRITERIA TOTALS FOR THE NORTHERN NC MTNS. GIVEN QPF
UNCERTAINTY AND THIS BEING MAINLY A THIRD PERIOD EVENT...WILL NOT
UPGRADE TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME AS CONTINUE WATCH AS IS.

GENERALLY LEANING TOWARD THE GFS MASS FIELDS FOR SYSTEM FCST TO
TRACK QUICKLY ACRS THE SE U.S. MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. A FAIRLY
QUICK SHOT OF GENERALLY LIGHT PCPN WILL BE FCST WITH CRITICAL
1540 85/70H THICKNESS LINE BISECTING THE CWFA LEADING TO MIXED
PCPN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACRS NE GA/UPSTATE.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ON TUESDAY...WILL PLAN ON S/WV ENERGY BEING DOWNSTREAM OF THE
CWFA...KEEPING THE DRY AND CHILLY FCST INTACT FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. PLAN ON LOADING UP DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF APPROACHING
CLIPPER ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN SHOW SHOWER POSSIBILITIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LARGE SCALE PATTERN FOR
DAYS 6/7...STILL FEATURING A RATHER COLD AND DEEP EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH. AS USUAL...FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING INDIVIDUAL BOUTS
OF S/WV ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH MEAN TROUGH AND WILL CONTINUE TO
BROAD BRUSH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NC MTNS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE TIMING OF ONSET OF
CATEGORICAL PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS IN COMPARISON WITH
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...AND HAVE GENERALLY ACCEPTED THIS TIMING...
MAKING A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO CIGS AND VISBY. EXPECT AT LEAST BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR AT ALL TERMINALS AT SOME POINT TONIGHT. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR...BUT HAVE WITHHELD THIS FROM
THE FORECAST ATTM. WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN EXITING
THE AREA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...AS DEEP LAYER FORCING SHIFTS TO
THE NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH SEVERE HOURS OF SHRA WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE...FROPA IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD ACROSS THE WEST...WITH GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING W/IN THE
COLD ADVECTION FLOW.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NCZ033-048>050 FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6
     PM SUNDAY.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
303 PM EST FRI FEB 3 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-041030-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
303 PM EST FRI FEB 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AFTER LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS DIMINISH SATURDAY MORNING...AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE A
WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. A PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS
IS LIKELY ALL ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY JUST OUT AHEAD OF...AND
IN THE WAKE OF A SHARP COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...PERHAPS
BRINGING WITH IT A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SNOW. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS...
MAINLY IN THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...MAY BE SEEN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED...BUT SNOWFALL REPORTS ARE
ENCOURAGED.

CSH