Severe Thunderstorm Warning 491, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
223 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINES OF SHRA AND TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER KY AND TN. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REACH
THE NC/TN LINE BY 21Z. I EXPECTED THE CONVECTION WILL BREAK APART
OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS...BUT SCT ACTIVITY SHOULD SURVIVE TO THE
FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY SECTION OF SHRA AND TSRA
HAS STARTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDLANDS OF SC. THE MIDLAND
ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA BETWEEN 21Z
AND 0Z THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH DRY AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS TO SUPPORT A FEW SVR WIND EVENTS. LARGE HAIL IN NOT
FAVORED DUE TO MARGINAL CAPE AND HIGH FRZ LEVELS.

INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY POOL ACROSS THE CWA SAT AFTERNOON. THE
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A H5 VORT WILL
RESULT IN EVEN COVERAGE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I WILL ADVERTISE
COVERAGE SIMILAR TO THE HIGH CHC COVERAGE INDICATED BY MOS.

A FLAT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN
RETROGRADES TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY AS
AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A STALLED SURFACE FRONT PERSISTS OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WHILE ANOTHER FRONT DROPS SOUTH TOWARD OUR AREA LATE
MONDAY. MODEL TIME HEIGHT PLOTS SHOW DEEP OMEGA REMAINING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE FORCING ALOFT...POPS WILL BE KEPT
IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE. WITH THE BOUNDARY REMAINING IN THE
AREA...CHANCE POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED AROUND THE CLOCK...WITH
RELATIVE LULLS AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES AS HEIGHTS FALL AND CLOUD COVER REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH NEAR
THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ADVERTISE SOME DEGREE OF EAST COAST
TROUGHING AT THE UPPER LEVELS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY... PRECEDED BY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY...ACTING AS
A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES. BY FRIDAY THE FRONT
DISSIPATES...WITH A RETURN TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN...CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE
FIRST 12 HRS. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN THE HIGHEST OVER THE MTNS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A SECONDARY MAX OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING. MTN SHRA AND TSRA SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE BY 23Z AS INITIAL
BAND OF CONVECTION MOVES EAST. CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT MAY
LINGER UNTIL 6Z. BASED ON THIS MORNING/S OBS...I INCLUDED A MENTION
OF FOG AT KAND AND KAVL. AFTER 13Z...TERMINALS SHOULD BECOME VFR.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FOR GAZ026-028-029 UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FOR NCZ071-082 UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SCZ006>014-019 UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...JAT/NED
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
600 AM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-051000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
600 AM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
ONCE AGAIN TODAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER
IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. PLEASE SEE THE SEVERE WEATHER
OUTLOOK...CAESPSGSP FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
348 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

NCZ505-506-508-042045-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
348 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER MCDOWELL COUNTY...

AT 347 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GLENWOOD...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARION...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GLENWOOD BY 400 PM EDT.
  THERMAL CITY BY 435 PM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
406 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

NCZ064-SCZ002-003-042100-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-TRANSYLVANIA-
406 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHERN TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY...

AT 400 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ROSMAN...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF BREVARD...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  5 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROCKY BOTTOM BY 500 PM EDT.
  2 MILES WEST OF CAESARS HEAD BY 500 PM EDT.

WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
452 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

NCZ052-042145-
HAYWOOD-
452 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING HAYWOOD COUNTY...

AT 452 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MAGGIE VALLEY...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF
WAYNESVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MAGGIE VALLEY THROUGH 505 PM EDT.
  6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAKE JUNALUSKA BY 535 PM EDT.
  WAYNESVILLE BY 545 PM EDT.

WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. ADDITIONAL STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE LINE INTO
NORTHERN HAYWOOD COUNTY THROUGH 6 PM.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
610 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

GAZ017-042315-
RABUN-
610 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING RABUN COUNTIES...

AT 607 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CLAYTON...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CLAYTON BY 640 PM EDT.

WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
614 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

NCZ053-505-042315-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
614 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHEAST BUNCOMBE COUNTY...

AT 611 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF BLACK MOUNTAIN...OR 12 MILES
NORTHEAST OF ASHEVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SWANNANOA BY 630 PM EDT.
  BLACK MOUNTAIN BY 635 PM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
623 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

NCZ056-502-042330-
CATAWBA-GREATER CALDWELL-
623 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING CALDWELL AND CATAWBA
COUNTIES...

AT 619 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GRANITE FALLS...OR 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF
HICKORY...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HICKORY BY 645 PM EDT.
  ST. STEPHENS BY 650 PM EDT.
  CONOVER BY 700 PM EDT.
  CLAREMONT BY 705 PM EDT.
  6 MILES NORTH OF TERRELL BY 730 PM EDT.

WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

44