Severe Thunderstorm Warning 485, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
242 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL HOLD OFF TO THE WEST OF THE CWA UNTIL LATE FRI
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY
CLOSE TO THE BOUNDARY TODAY...WHICH SHOULD BE THE CASE TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REACH INTO THE U90S EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS ON FRI. HOWEVER...DURING THE EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEK
DWPTS HAVE MIXED INTO THE MID 60S. MIXING SHOULD NOT BE AS NOTICEABLE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE WEAK FLOW INDICATED ON THE WRF
SOUNDINGS...BUT DWPTS WILL FALL TO AROUND 70 TO U60S LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST T/DWPT FORECAST...HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ALONG AND EAST OF I-85 FRI AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. I WILL ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY TO HIGHLIGHT THE TIMING
AND AREA OF GREATEST HEAT INDEX VALUES.

A FLAT UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY...
WHILE A PAIR OF LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGHS PROGRESS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND CANADA. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FIRST OF THESE TROUGHS WIL STALL OUT OVER THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...WHERE IT REMAINS INTO SUNDAY....AND REMAINGIN A FOCUS
FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES
AS CLOUDS INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL RETROGRADE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES FROM EASTERN CANADA TO THE MID
ATLANTIC. OUR AREA REMAINS IN A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS ON
MONDAY...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA TUESDAY...THEN
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO
BELOW NORMAL AS HEIGHTS FALL AND CLOUD COVER INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN AVIATION ISSUE WILL BE THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA AND TSRA
FORECAST AND THE RESULTING FOG TONIGHT. I WILL INCLUDE TEMPOS FOR
KHKY...KGMU...KGSP...AND KAND. KAVL RECEIVED A TSRA AROUND 18Z AND
THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...WILL MONITOR KAVL FOR ANY
POSSIBLE CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT...AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY SEE A FEW PERIODS OF MVFR FOG LATE
TONIGHT. FRI...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND SHRA AND TSRA
SHOULD BECOME SCT AFTER 18Z.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FOR GAZ018-026-028-029 UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY.
  ...HEAT ADVISORY FOR GAZ026-028-029 FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM
     FRIDAY.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FOR NCZ036-037-056-057-067>072-082-508 UNTIL 7
     PM THURSDAY.
  ...HEAT ADVISORY FOR NCZ071-082 FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SCZ004>014-019 UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY.
  ...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SCZ006>014-019 FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM
     FRIDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...JAT/NED
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
630 AM EDT THU AUG 3 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-041030-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
630 AM EDT WED AUG 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE REGION...HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD
BE AS HIGH AS 105 IN THE PIEDMONT. FOR FURTHER DETAILS...PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST HEAT ADVISORY...NPWGSP...ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE PENNY SIZE HAIL OR 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ONE MORE HOT DAY WILL BE SEEN ON FRIDAY. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DAILY
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
520 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2006

NCZ069-032200-
LINCOLN-
520 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT LINCOLN COUNTY...

AT 520 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DALLAS...OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF
LINCOLNTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  IRON STATION BY 540 PM EDT.
  LOWESVILLE BY 600 PM EDT.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
525 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2006

SCZ010-011-032230-
ABBEVILLE-ANDERSON-
525 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS SOUTHERN ANDERSON COUNTIES...

AT 519 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF BELTON...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF ANDERSON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONEA PATH BY 535 PM EDT.
  DUE WEST BY 605 PM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
530 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2006

NCZ072-082-032230-
CABARRUS-UNION-
530 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING CABARRUS COUNTY...

AT 524 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MOUNT PLEASANT...OR 7 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CONCORD...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MIDLAND BY 605 PM EDT.
  6 MILES EAST OF FAIRVIEW BY 630 PM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

44

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