Severe Thunderstorm Warning 478, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
316 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY DEEP LAYER UPPER RIDGE
THROUGH THU. THUS...VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY ON
THU...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THU AFTERNOON FOR
ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AREA...BUT WILL ADD A COUPLE NC FOOTHILL
COUNTIES. THAT MEANS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S...MIXING INTO THE UPPER 60S BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG OLD BOUNDARY NOTED OVER THE UPSTATE IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION THIS MORNING. THIS IS AN INDICATION THAT ATMOSPHERE HAS
BECOME LESS CAPPED. THEREFORE...SEE NO REASON THAT THU AFTERNOON
WILL NOT SEE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AS WELL. SO
POPS WILL REFLECT THIS.

HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BEGIN TO LOWER ON FRIDAY AND A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. CONVECTION
SHOULD FIRE OVER THE MTNS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MOS CONSENSUS LOOKS GOOD WITH MIDDLE 90S EAST OF THE MTNS...HEAT
INDEX VALUES 101 TO 103.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
H5 HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT WEST OF THE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND AS A
SHALLOW L/W TROF MOVES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
AND HPC GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL SINK INTO THE SRN
APPALACHIAN AREA ON SATURDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY. AT LEAST SCT
SHRA AND TSRA SHOULD RESPOND TO THE WEAK LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WILL LINGER INTO
SUNDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE PIVOTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
COVERAGE OF SHRA AND TSRA SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN ON SAT AS
FRONT BECOMES MODIFIED. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SE US
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND COULD SUPPORT DIURNAL CONVECTION. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA ON WEDS AND SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
SHRA AND TSRA TUES NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAKER RIDGE....GREATER
CLOUD COVER...AND CONVECTION WILL SUPPORT A CLIMO FORECAST FOR
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO NEED TO DEVIATE FROM PERSISTENCE FORECAST YET FOR TAF SITES AS
WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS STAGNANT WITH UPPER HIGH OVER THE AREA.
WIDELY SCATTERED...POP CORN CONVECTION NOTED ON RADAR BUT NOTHING
THREATENING A TAF SITE. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AGAIN BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS MIX OUT AND LOWER SOME. WILL CONTINUE TO JUST
CARRY A CB WITH FORECAST SCATTERED DECK THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
VISIBILITIES TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 14Z ON THU. WINDS EITHER CALM TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FOR GAZ018-026-028-029 UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY.
  ...HEAT ADVISORY FOR GAZ018-026-028-029 FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 7
     PM THURSDAY.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FOR NCZ036-037-057-068>072-082 UNTIL 7 PM
     WEDNESDAY.
  ...HEAT ADVISORY FOR NCZ036-037-056-057-067>072-082-508 FROM 1 PM
     THURSDAY TO 7 PM THURSDAY.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SCZ004>014-019 UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY.
  ...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SCZ004>014-019 FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 7 PM
     THURSDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...LG/NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...LG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
545 AM EDT WED AUG 2 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-030945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
545 AM EDT WED AUG 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE REGION...HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD
BE AS HIGH AS 105 IN THE PIEDMONT. FOR FURTHER DETAILS...PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST HEAT ADVISORY...NPWGSP...ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 105. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
230 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2006

SCZ007-012>014-021930-
CHESTER-LAURENS-SPARTANBURG-UNION-
230 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING CHESTER...LAURENS...SPARTANBURG
AND UNION COUNTIES...

AT 225 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LANCASTER TO
CHESTER TO GRAY COURT. THESE STORMS WERE  DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH
AT AROUND 7 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  CROSS KEYS BY 235 PM EDT.
  CHESTER BY 245 PM EDT.
  RICHBURG BY 300 PM EDT.
  HICKORY TAVERN BY 320 PM EDT.
  FORT LAWN BY 325 PM EDT.
  CARLISLE BY 330 PM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
325 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2006

GAZ029-022030-
ELBERT-
325 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT ELBERT COUNTY THROUGH 430 PM...

AT 319 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES EAST OF COMER...OR 8 MILES WEST OF
ELBERTON...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

44