Severe Thunderstorm Warning 460, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
251 PM EDT SAT JUL 22 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CONVECTIVE STORMS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP VICINITY MOUNTAINS IN
AXIS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MODERATELY HIGH CAPE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS PIEDMONT SECTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING.  EARLY EVENING POPS WILL RANGE FROM LIKELY IN WEST TO
CHANCE IN EAST.  DURING OVERNIGHT PERIOD... POPS WILL BE DECREASED
TO CHANCE IN WEST WITH LIKELY IN EXTREME EAST.  THIS PATTERN FITS
EXPECTED EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY
INFILTRATION OF MORE STABLE AIR IN WEST FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF WEAK
FRONT.  DURING SUNDAY... POPS WILL DROP TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS WEST
BUT WILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE POPS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES.  NAM
INDICATES FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN NC
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL SC WITH AREA OF MODERATELY HIGH
CAPES AFFECTING EAST AND SOUTHEAST PART OF CWA. NAM ALSO HINTS AT
PRESENCE OF WEAK WAVE ON FRONT WHICH WOULD ENHANCE POSSIBILITY OF
CONVECTION DURING AFTERNOON. FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF FRONT... LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST THEN NORTHEAST DURING
TOMORROW. HOWEVER... VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PERSIST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
FOLLOWED GFS MOS TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FORECAST.

TOKEN CHANCE POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA FOR SUNDAY EVENING...IN ASSOCIATIONS
WITH PROGGED LOCATION OF DEEP LAYER RH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POSITION.

BY LATE MONDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SW TROUGH.
HOWEVER...THEY DIFFER ON HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL ADVECT. THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT IN SURGING DEEP LAYER
RH AS FAR WEST AS THE TENN/NC BORDER...WHILE THE NAM IS QUITE A BIT
FURTHER EAST. AT THIS POINT FEEL THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA MON AND MON EVENING...
30S WEST...40S SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE HAS BEEN SOME DEVIATION IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS FROM PRIOR
SOLUTIONS...MAINLY IN ALLOWING A MEAN TROUGH TO LINGER ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY PROGGED. THIS MAY PROVIDE
FOR A SLIGHTLY WETTER EXTENDED PERIOD THAN WAS EXPECTED EARLIER. IN
FACT...THE GFS MAINTAINS A QUITE MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THIS POINT...DON/T FEEL IT IS
NECESSARY TO GET TOO CUTE WITH POPS...AND WILL MAINLY ADVERTISE
DIURNAL CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
MID AFTERNOON MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FAVORS AREA EAST OF MOUNTAINS FOR
CONVECTIVE STORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
VCTS WILL BE INCLUDED AT ALL TAF SITES UNTIL EARLY EVENING.  STABLE
AIR WILL MOVE INTO AVL AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND SPREAD SLOWLY
EASTWARD TO CLT AREA BY MIDNIGHT.  WIDESPREAD LOW CEILINGS NOT
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT EAST OF MOUNTAINS... BUT MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 06Z AND 13Z.  GUIDANCE INDICATES LOWER
CONDITIONS AT AVL SO A PERIOD OF STRATUS AND FOG AFTER 06Z
DISSIPATING BY 14Z. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED EXCEPT STRONG AND
GUSTY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF FRONT DURING THE
NIGHT... WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT NORTHWEST.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LGL/LANE
LONG TERM...LANE
AVIATION...LGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
500 AM EDT SAT JUL 22 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-230900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
500 AM EDT SAT JUL 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL. A SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(SPSGSP) HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN MORE DETAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
625 PM EDT SAT JUL 22 2006

NCZ065-222300-
HENDERSON-
625 PM EDT SAT JUL 22 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING HENDERSON COUNTY...

AT 621 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HENDERSONVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  FLAT ROCK BY 640 PM EDT.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

CSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
640 PM EDT SAT JUL 22 2006

NCZ508-222315-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-
640 PM EDT SAT JUL 22 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING RUTHERFORD COUNTY...

AT 634 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEARING RUTHERFORDTON...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RUTHERFORDTON BY 645 PM EDT.
  SPINDALE BY 700 PM EDT.
  FOREST CITY BY 715 PM EDT.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

CSH

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
828 PM EDT SAT JUL 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0802 PM     HAIL             5 N MOCKSVILLE          35.97N 80.56W
07/22/2006  E0.75 INCH       DAVIE              NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

OUTLAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
834 PM EDT SAT JUL 22 2006

SCZ003-006-007-230130-
GREATER GREENVILLE-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-SPARTANBURG-
834 PM EDT SAT JUL 22 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING GREENVILLE AND SPARTANBURG
COUNTIES...

AT 833 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR INMAN...OR 13 MILES SOUTH OF COLUMBUS...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  INMAN BY 845 PM EDT.
  BOILING SPRINGS SC BY 900 PM EDT.
  MAYO BY 920 PM EDT.
  COWPENS BY 925 PM EDT.

OTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE AFFECTING MUCH OF NORTHERN
GREENVILLE COUNTY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 11. THESE STORMS WERE ALSO MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

MCAVOY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
839 PM EDT SAT JUL 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 PM     HAIL             ABBEVILLE               34.18N 82.38W
07/22/2006  E0.75 INCH       ABBEVILLE          SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A SPOTTER REPORT OF THREE-QUARTER INCH DIAMETER HAIL IN
            THE CITY OF ABBEVILLE.

&&

OUTLAW