Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
310 PM EDT MON APR 3 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TORNADO WATCH 147 CONTINUES FOR MOST OF THE CWFA UNTIL 8 PM WITH THE
RISK FOR SVR STORMS CONTINUING JUST ALONG AND OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WHICH AS OF 19 UTC WAS NEARING THE SW NC MTNS. FROM MID-
EVENING ONWARD...THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE THREAT OF STRONG GRADIENT
WINDS AS THE COMBINATION OF A PERIOD OF SHARP CAA...STRONG SFC PRESSURE
RISES...A 50 KT 85H JET AND A 90 KT 50H JET PERPENDICULAR TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LEADS TO THE PROBABILITY OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MODEL TIME
HEIGHTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN NC MTNS/FTHLS INDICATE A PERIOD OF DEEP
DOWNWARD OMEGA THIS EVENING...BUT MIXING IS LIMITED IN THE LOWER
TERRAIN...NOT SURPRISING GIVING THE TIME OF DAY. SO...BASED ON
THIS HAVE UPGRADED NC MTNS TO HIGH WIND WARNING AND ISSUED WARNING
AS WELL FOR NC FTHLS.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT A
RESURGENCE IN 850 MB FLOW WILL BRING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS BACK
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE INTENSE
UPPER LEVEL JET CORE WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT UNTIL UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST. MODELS REVEAL SOME DEGREE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLING
OVER THE RIDGE BY THURSDAY...AS A LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRES MOVING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY
SHOULD GRADUALLY GET ABSORBED BY THE ERN CANADIAN VORTEX OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
MAINLY DURING SATURDAY. SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS WAVE
WILL AFFECT MAINLY MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRI
NIGHT...SPREADING SMALLER CHANCES THROUGH THE PIEDMONT INTO
SATURDAY. RESIDUAL NW FLOW MOISTURE MAY LINGER ALONG THE TN BORDER
THROUGH SAT NIGHT BEFORE DRYING. HIGH PRES WILL THEN REMAIN DOMINANT
ALONG THE SE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL GO WITH A SMATTERING OF VCTS FOR NOW FOR THE UPSTATE TAFS AND
KCLT AS DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PERCOLATES INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. A GUSTY SW GRADIENT WIND CONCERN CONTINUES AS WELL
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT A GUSTY WIND SHIFT TO WEST
THEN NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS IN THE IMMEDIATE
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WILL KEEP GUSTY NW
WINDS CONFINED JUST TO KAVL AS CAA DIMINISHES ENOUGH TO REMOVE GUSTS
EAST OF THE MTNS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25
PERCENT IN ALL LOCATIONS BUT THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER IN THE MORNING...BUT
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...THE ONLY REAL THREAT FOR
RED FLAG APPEARS TO BE THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF NC. A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOLLOWING COORDINATION WITH
FORESTRY USERS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WIND ADVISORY FOR GAZ010-017 UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY.
  ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR GAZ018-026-028-029 UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY.
NC...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR NCZ033-034-048>055-058-059-062>067 UNTIL
     6 AM TUESDAY.
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ033-034-048>055-058-059-062>067 UNTIL 6
     PM MONDAY.
  ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082 UNTIL 6
     AM TUESDAY.
SC...WIND ADVISORY FOR SCZ001>003 UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY.
  ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR SCZ004>014-019 UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...CSH/HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...CSH
FIRE WEATHER...CSH/HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
606 AM EDT MON APR 3 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-041000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
606 AM EDT MON APR 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SOME OF THE STORMS
WILL BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE STRONG ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. WINDY
CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
PLEASE SEE CAENPWGSP FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AND WINDS MAY REACH
RED FLAG CRITERIA IN SOME LOCATIONS. COORDINATION WITH LAND
MANAGEMENT AGENCIES WILL BE NECESSARY TODAY TO DETERMINE IF A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS NEEDED.

VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
146 PM EDT MON APR 03 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     HAIL             3 NE MONROE             35.02N 80.50W
04/03/2006  E0.75 INCH       UNION              NC   AIRPLANE PILOT

            HELICOPTER PILOT REPORTED HAIL THE SIZE OF GUMBALLS,
            LARGER THAN MARBLES, FORCED HIM TO LAND.

&&

TBENTHAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
244 PM EDT MON APR 03 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     HAIL             3 SE ROCK HILL          34.91N 80.99W
04/03/2006  E0.88 INCH       YORK               SC   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL IN TOWN OF LESSLIE ON LESSLIE HIGHWAY.

0640 AM     HAIL             3 SW HENDERSONVILLE     35.29N 82.50W
04/03/2006  E0.75 INCH       HENDERSON          NC   POST OFFICE

            DIME SIZE HAIL AT PENROSE POST OFFICE.

&&

TBENTHAL