Severe Thunderstorm Warning 322, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO INCREASE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR RECORD LEVELS ACROSS THE UPSTATE. ALSO...EXPANDED CHANCE
COVERAGE POPS ACROSS THE ESCARPMENT REGION AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. MIXING HAS BEEN GREATER THAN
ANTICIPATED TODAY AND THE DRIER AIR IS BEEN HEATED AT A HIGH RATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 1110 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006/

SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL. THE 12Z
RAOBS FROM AROUND THE REGION SUGGEST DEEP MIXING AGAIN...BUT
PROBABLY NOT AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY. UPPER STACKED RIDING WILL CENTER
RIGHT OVER THE AREA AND EXPECT MID LEVEL TEMPS TO BE THE KEY IN
HOLDING OFF SCATTERED CONVECTION.

THE MAIN PROBLEM THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN HOW MUCH DRY AIR GETS
MIXED TO THE SURFACE. BASED ON MODIFIED SOUNDINGS...CAPE VALUES WILL
VARY GREATLY DEPENDING ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS. USING ADJUSTED
PERSISTENCE AND THE FACT THAT MOS AND LAMP HAVE FAILED TO CAPTURE
AFTERNOON MIXING...WILL LOWER MINIMUM DEWPOINTS ABOUT 5 DEGREES
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. THIS SHOULD STILL ENABLE CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1100 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. SO...WILL EXPAND THE AREA OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWFA.

TEMPERATURES LOOK PRETTY GOOD PER LATEST THICKNESS SCHEME AND
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS AT THIS SAME TIME.
NO ADJUSTMENTS SEEM NESSASARY...BUT TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL BE
WATCHED CLOSELY FOR A POSSIBLE INCREASE TO RECORD LEVELS OUTSIDE
THE MOUNTAINS.

PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 300 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE. W/V
LOOP DEPICTS SMALL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE CAROLINAS. BASED ON THE CURRENT CLOUD TRENDS AND LATE MORNING
DEVELOPMENT OF CU...I WILL ADVERTISE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE
AM WITH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPS
STARTING IN THE 70S THIS MORNING...STRONG INSOLATION...AND
A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOS BELOW H8...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM VERY
QUICKLY THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE MID TO U90S EAST AND L90S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS.
AFTERNOON TEMP AT KAVL IS FORECAST TO TIE THE RECORD OF 92 SET IN
1988. DUE TO DWPTS IN THE MID 60S...HEAT INDEX VALUES DO NOT
EXCEED 100C. HOWEVER...AIR QUALITY WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS THE
FA...CHARLOTTE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE UNHEALTHY CATE. BASED ON
FWC MOS I WILL INCLUDE HAZE DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON.

A WEAK VORT MAX OVER NRN AL AND GA IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OVER
THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. CIN WILL ERODE IN TO 10-20 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD BE SMALL ENOUGH FOR WEAK PVA AND ELEVATION
HEATED PARCELS TO REACH THE LFC. I WILL HIGHLIGHT THE MTNS ALONG
THE NC/SC LINE WITH LOW CHC POPS THIS AFTERNOON...COVERAGE MAY
CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING.

DWPTS WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES FRI AHEAD OF A FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...REDUCING THE AMOUNT OF CIN. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN EXCEED 90 EAST OF THE MTNS AND CAPES POOL OVER 1500 J/KG
DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL TO THE
WEST WITH A BROAD TROF AXIS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN SCT CONVECTION EAST AND POSSIBLY NUMEROUS
SHRA AND TSRA OVER THE MTNS.

SAT...UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE FORECAST BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE ATLANTIC LOW OFF THE FL COAST. NEVERTHELESS...A
FRONT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS WITH THE TROF
AXIS EAST OF THE MS RIVER. WITH MORE FEATURES TO TRIGGER CONVECTION
I WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE FA TO 40 PERCENT EAST AND HIGH CHC
MTNS...WITH CHC LINGERING INTO SUN AM.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ONLY SMALL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH DUE TO OVERACTIVE CONVECTIVE SCHEME IN
THE GFS AND THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL LOW TO THE SE.

AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY HIGH
LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME MVFR FOG AT KAVL BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT HIGH
CLOUDS MIGHT PREVENT THIS FROM HAPPENING AGAIN...SO IT HAS NOT BEEN
INCLUDED IN THE TAF. CU SHOULD START DEVELOPING DURING MID MORNING
AS CONVECTIVE TEMP IS REACHED...BUT EXPECT HIGH CLOUD BASES AGAIN.
OUR CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD BE JUST A BIT HIGHER THAN
WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT EVEN A VCSH MENTION
AT ANY TAF SITES. THE OUTLOOK FOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IS FOR A BIT
MORE MVFR FOG AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY GREATER.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KRENTZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
530 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-230930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
530 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP EACH DAY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
154 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     HAIL             2 SW WAYNESVILLE        35.46N 83.02W
06/22/2006  M0.88 INCH       HAYWOOD            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL AS LARGE AS NICKELS FALLING IN THE ALLENS CREEK
            AREA...JUST SOUTHWEST OF WAYNESVILLE.

&&

44