Alert archive / North Carolina / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2006

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 263, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

May 31, 2006Madison County, North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 31, 2006, 2:56 PM EDT for Madison County, North Carolina. It was in force for 68 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: May 31, 2006, 2:56 PM EDT (18:56 UTC)
Expired: May 31, 2006, 4:04 PM EDT
In force: 68 min
Issued by: NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Madison County, NC

The radar

The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 71 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 6.9 hours before the alert went out and 323 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 454 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -72 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1278 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 4 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 13 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 40 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 31, 2:41 PM EDT, 15 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 31, 2:41 PM EDT, 15 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
241 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DIURNALLY FIRED TSTM CHANCES ACRS THE
MTNS AND IMMEDIATE FTHLS THIS EVENING...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
WITH THE CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW...WEAK INSTABILITY AND SOME
DEVELOPING LLVL WAA...THAT ISOLATED ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. WANING UPPER RIDING WILL GIVE WAY TO BROAD TROUGHING
AND BETTER WSW FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER ON THURSDAY. MORE ROBUST
DEEP LAYER RH VALUES STILL ON TRACK TO ENVELOP THE WESTERN CWFA IN
THE AFTERNOON...SO DESPITE THE CONTINUED WEAK SHEAR...CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE BETTER WITH LIKELY CVRG IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A
SOLID CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
NAM DEVELOPS GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
COUPLED WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS RESULTS IN GOOD CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE DURING THIS TIME. NAM POPS FROM 12-18 UTC FRI ARE IN THE
60-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE GFS
DOES SOMETHING SIMILAR...BUT ITS BEST FORCING AND RESULTANT
PRECIPITATION IS A LITTLE RATHER WEST...ACROSS EASTERN TN.
THEREFORE...WILL HOLD ON TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
THU NIGHT...AND ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. AT
THIS TIME...AIRMASS LOOKS QUITE MOIST ON FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD
CURB SEVERE THREAT. BEST SHEAR ALSO LOOKS TO LAG INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF A MORE ORGANIZED
SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES FRI EVENING...BUT FOR NOW
THE BIG STORY LOOKS TO BE A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BUT AS HEIGHTS FALL
ALOFT...WE MAY DESTABILIZE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT...WITH BETTER SHEAR AND MUCH LOWER FREEZING
LEVELS...A FEW STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL WON/T BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HOWEVER...THE CHANCES OF THIS LOOKS SLIM...AND WILL KEEP
POPS LOW ENOUGH THAT THEY DON/T UNLOAD INTO THE ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG WAVE TROF WILL HAUNT THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST. THERE WILL BE A HEIGHTENED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WE WILL
NEARLY BE RIGHT UNDER THE UPPER LOW. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE OTHER
OPPORTUNITIES FOR CONVECTION WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT FOR NOW LEFT THE TUE-WED PERIOD DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...KAVL HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO
EXPERIENCE A TSTM...AND BASED ON CURRENT CVRG WILL CARRY A CB
STARTING AT 20 UTC. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF EASTERLY WIND
OF LESS THAN 10 MPH...SCT VFR CU AND AREAS OF VFR HAZE. DEVELOPING
WEAK WAA TONIGHT COULD RESULT IN SOME STRATCU...BUT LIFT WEAK ENOUGH
AND RH PROGS INCONCLUSIVE TO ADVERTISE ANYTHING WORSE THAN SCT MVFR
LVL STRATCU. PLAN ON PERSISTENCE WITH FOG/HAZE REDEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS EVENING LASTING THROUGH MID-MORNING THURSDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MCAVOY/CSH
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...CSH

Hazardous weather outlook, May 31, 3:22 AM EDT, 11 hours 34 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
322 AM EDT WED MAY 31 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-010730-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
322 AM EDT WED MAY 31 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE NEED FOR SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 31, 10:59 AM EDT, 3 hours 57 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1059 AM EDT WED MAY 31 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             ELK PARK                36.16N 81.98W
05/30/2006  E0.88 INCH       AVERY              NC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL BETWEEN ELK PARK AND BANNER ELK.

0335 PM     HAIL             1 N BANNER ELK          36.18N 81.87W
05/30/2006  E0.75 INCH       AVERY              NC   CO-OP OBSERVER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL OR SLIGHTLY LARGER.

&&

TJB

Special weather statement, May 31, 12:50 PM EDT, 2 hours 6 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1250 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2006

NCZ033-311715-
AVERY-
1250 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING AVERY COUNTY...

AT 1250 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NEWLAND...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH. ANOTHER
STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AVERY COUNTY
NEAR BEECH MOUNTAIN. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL AND
WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH.

NED

Local storm report, May 31, 1:21 PM EDT, 1 hour 35 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
121 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0119 PM     HAIL             3 S MARION              35.64N 82.01W
05/31/2006  E0.75 INCH       MCDOWELL           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL AS LARGE AS DIMES FALLING NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
            I-40 AND HIGHWAY 221, JUST SOUTH OF MARION.

&&

BSH

Local storm report, May 31, 2:07 PM EDT, 49 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
207 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     HAIL             OLD FORT                35.63N 82.18W
05/31/2006  E0.75 INCH       MCDOWELL           NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            COUNTY COMMS CENTER RECIEVED REPORT OF DIME SIZED HAIL IN
            OLD FORT FROM OFF DUTY FIREMAN.

0150 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E LEDGER              35.96N 82.13W
05/31/2006                   MITCHELL           NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREE THROUGH A HOUSE JUST EAST OF LEDGER ON BEAR CREEK
            ROAD.

&&

BSH

Local storm report, May 31, 2:10 PM EDT, 46 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
210 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             1 N MAGGIE VALLEY       35.53N 83.09W
05/30/2006  E1.75 INCH       HAYWOOD            NC   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL HAIL 1 MILE FROM THE CATALOOCHEE SKI RESORT
            OFFICE REPORTED BY RESORT MANAGER.

&&

TJB

Special weather statement, May 31, 2:16 PM EDT, 40 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
216 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2006

NCZ053-311900-
BUNCOMBE-
216 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EASTERN BUNCOMBE
COUNTY...

AT 213 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MONTREAT AND BLACK MOUNTAIN...OR 15 MILES
EAST OF ASHEVILLE...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SWANNANOA BY 235 PM EDT.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

NED/GMS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 31, 1:00 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	McDowell	60 min
May 31, 1:20 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Mitchell	47 min
May 31, 1:58 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	McDowell	27 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Carolina, 2006 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.