Severe Thunderstorm Warning 257, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
236 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY FIRED DEEP CONVECTION ACRS THE HIGH
TERRAIN IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HTG THIS EVENING...AS
AREAS OF FOG AND HAZE REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THE SLOW OVERALL
MOISTENING TREND AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A GREATER CVRG OF AFTERNOON TSTMS...BUT MAINLY ACRS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HAVE BUMPED MAXES UPWARD TOMORROW AS LOWERING OF LLVL
THICKNESS VALUES IS EXPECTED TO LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
FORCING WILL BE ABSENT WED NGHT AND THU AS WE WILL BE UNDER A
FAIRLY STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGE. THE NAM AND WRF DEVELOP QUITE A
BIT OF CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF THE CWFA DURING THIS TIME.
CONSIDERING THE LACK OF SHEAR TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION...I THINK
THEY ARE WAY OVERDONE. THE FACT THAT EACH RUN HAS BEEN DIFFERENT
WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION ALSO SUPPORTS THIS
ARGUMENT. HOWEVER...SE FLOW INCREASES A BIT TOMORROW NIGHT ON THE
NAM/WRF/GFS...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE WILL SEE CONVECTION LAST
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

LAYER RH VALUES SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST THEY HAVE BEEN IN SEVERAL DAYS
ON THU. SO DESPITE THE CONTINUED WEAK SHEAR...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
SHOULD BE BETTER WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS AND LOWER IN THE EASTERN ZONES.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BRING A 500 MB SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE CWFA THU
NIGHT. THIS APPEARS TO BE PART OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER ERN TX AND WRN LA. THIS COULD BE PROMISING
FROM A RAINFALL PERSPECTIVE AS THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING QUITE A BIT
OF MOISTURE WITH IT AND WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANGE POPS THU
NIGHT...WITH EVEN SOME LIKELY POPS IN THE MTNS.

AS A LONG WAVE TROF DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FRIDAY...MID
LEVELS WILL DRY OUT AND SHEAR WILL FINALLY INCREASE. THE NAM HAS
MODEST CAPE OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH THE FRONT HANGING UP IN THE LEE. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE
FRONT...BUT IT SELDOM DOES A GOOD JOB ACCURATELY REFLECTING SURFACE
MASS FIELDS IN THE LEE AND I TEND TO TRUST THE NAM. THEREFORE WE MAY
BE LOOKING AT A HIGHER SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROF WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE ERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FRONT WILL HAVE LONG SINCE PASSED THROUGH THE REGION AND WE ARE
LOOKING AT A DRY FORECAST WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT A LITTLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. POSSIBLE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON TUE AND HAVE INCLUDED LOW CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...
DIURNAL TSTM CVRG LOOKING TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION CB AT KAVL THIS
AFTERNOON. PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE 06 UTC TAF PACKAGE IS FOG/HAZE
THREAT TONIGHT/WED MORNING. BASED ON DWPT TRENDS THIS
AFTERNOON...MINIMUMS EXPECTED TO BE SVRL DEGREES ABOVE
CROSSOVER...BUT BEST TO GO WITH PERSISTENCE. HAZE A LITTLE MORE
NOTABLE THIS AFTERNOON GIVING RISE TO EARLIER THREAT OF
RESTRICTIVE VSBY LATER THIS EVENING...LEADING TO MVFR VSBYS AT
THE TERMINALS BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. INTRODUCED IFR PERIOD AT KAVL
BASED ON OCCURRENCE THE PAST TWO NIGHTS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MCAVOY/CSH
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...CSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
348 AM EDT TUE MAY 30 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-310800-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
348 AM EDT TUE MAY 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NORHT
CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE NEED FOR SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

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