Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
245 PM EDT FRI MAY 5 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT WAVE (OVER EASTERN TN/N GA AT MID AFTERNOON) AND ATTENDANT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING AS ABOUT EXPECTED. REGIONAL RADARS
SHOW GOOD COVERAGE TO OUR W AND WITH FORECAST AREA CONTINUING TO
DESTABALIZE PER LAPS CAPES...SEE NO REASON WHY MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WILL FEATURE CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL ABOUT 00Z AND THEN MOVE SHOWERS QUICKLY OFF TO
THE SE AS SHORT WAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
END ALL AREAS BY 04Z. COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SEVERE EVENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST THREAT AREA IS JUST TO
OUR S ACROSS CENTRAL SC.

AS SHORT WAVE DEPARTS THIS EVENING...SHOWERS TO END WITH SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRYER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
NORTH. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL RIDGE OVER THE
REGION ON SAT PRODUCING A NICE DAY. SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF
SUNSHINE THOUGH IT WILL BE FILTERED BY HIGH CLOUDS PER MODEL TIME
SECTIONS. A BLEND OF MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE LOOKS HARD TO BEAT FOR
MINIMUM TONIGHT AND MAX ON SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT SUN BUT HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO NAM
WITH SYSTEM ON SUN. SFC LOW SPINS UP OVER MS-AL AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES DOWN ALONG E SIDE OF MTNS. AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASE...LIFTING MOISTURE OVER WEDGE...EXPECTING A
COOL...SOAKING RAIN ACROSS CWA SUN. THEN SYSTEM TRACKS E TOWARD
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER AREA BY LATE
MON INTO TUE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE HAVING DIFFICULTY
RESOLVING THE TRAIN OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH UPPER FLOW NEXT
WEEK AND TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. HAVE RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER MTNS FOR TUE...THEN NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE W TUE NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS SPREADING ACROSS THE
MTNS...THEN ENTIRE CWA WED AND THU. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU AREA FRI...THEN COOLER...DRYER
HIGH PRESSURE POISED TO BUILD IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION...
RATHER DIFFICULT AVIATION PACKAGE AS EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT ALL TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MOS GUIDANCE NOT A LOT OF HELP WITH CEILING/VSBY FIELDS AS
I SUSPECT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING WITH THE
PRECIPITATION AND VSBYS LOWERING TO AROUND 2SM IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
THIS HAS BEEN THE HISTORY OF OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST. SHORT
WAVE NOW OVER EASTERN TENNESSEE TRIGGERING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS PER LATEST REGIONAL RADAR. AS FAR AS TIMING...EXPECT
KAVL/KAND TO EXPERIENCE TSRA/SHRA BY 20Z...KGSP/KGMU BY 21Z AND
KCLT/KHKY BY 22Z. AS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY
02Z...EXPECT SHOWERS TO END. EXPECT THAT BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE
STAURATED ENOUGH TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COUPLE HOURS OF MVFR CIGS
ONCE THE SHOWERS DEPART. HOWEVER...MOS SKY CONDITIONS AND MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THAT ANY CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT/DISSIPATE BY
06Z. WITH RAIN EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES SOME LIGHT FOG EXPECTED
AROUND SUNRISE BUT WITH LOWERING DEWPOINTS EXPECT ONLY RESTRICTIONS TO
AROUND 5SM. AFTER 12Z...VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...LG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
600 AM EDT FRI MAY 5 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-061000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
600 AM EDT FRI MAY 5 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN
STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED...AND A
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK COULD BE ISSUED IF THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.