Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WWUS82 KGSP 052218
RFWGSP

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
618 PM EDT WED APR 5 2006

NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-052330-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-060405T2200Z/
MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
618 PM EDT WED APR 5 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL ONLY SLOWLY RISE TO ABOVE 25 PERCENT THROUGH LATE
EVENING...AND WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER THROUGH 9 PM.

$$
MCAVOY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
407 AM EDT WED APR 5 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WITH A LITTLE LESS WIND OVER MOST OF UPSTATE AND NE GA.
SHORT WAVES SPINNING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL HELP
BRING STRONGER WINDS INTO THE AREA. DEEP DOWNWARD OMEGA AND GOOD
MIXING WILL HELP BRING SOME OF THOSE WINDS TO THE SURFACE. H85
WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS LAST NIGHTS EVENT...SO WARNING LEVEL WINDS
AND GUSTS NOT EXPECTED. BUT IT SHOULD BE A HIGH END ADVISORY FOR
THE NRN MTNS. QUITE A GRADIENT WITH THE WIND FIELD AS WINDS DROP
OFF QUICKLY AS YOU GO SOUTH. THEREFORE ONLY HAVE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. WILL ISSUE LAKE
WIND ADV FOR THE NC FOOTHILLS WHERE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP.
HIGHEST WINDS/GUSTS WILL BE NEAR AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. WILL BE
GUSTY NC PIEDMONT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE BREEZY RANGE WITH
WINDS DROPPING OFF EVEN MORE OVER THE UPSTATE AND NE GA. WINDS
DIMINISH QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS RIDGE BUILDS IN AND STRONG WINDS
MOVE EAST. INVERSION SHOULD SET UP AS WELL LIMITING MIXING.

SFC HIGH BRIEFLY MOVES IN TONIGHT BEFORE IT MOVES EAST THURSDAY
AS WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH JUST TO OUR WEST. GFS HAS NOW BECOME
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITHMOISTUREE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE MTNS
WHILE NAM KEEPS BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE OVER TN. LOW LEVELS QUITE
DRY EVEN ON THE WETTER GFS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS.
THEREFORE HAVE SLIGHT CHC POP NC MTNS THU AFT AND EVENING. THINK
GFS OVERDONE WITH PRECIP CHC OUTSIDE OF THE NC MTNS SO DRY FCST
CONTINUES THERE.

A LULL IN THE ACTION THU NITE AND FRI MORNING AS SWLY FLOW AND
WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS AHEAD OF PLAINS LOW MOVING TOWARD THE AREA.
MDLS HAVE SLOWED MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH GFS A LITTLE
FASTER. HAVE SLOWED ONSET OF PRECIP CHC TO FRI AFT. CHC MTNS/NC
FOOTHILLS AND SLIGHT CHC EAST.

WARMING TREND DEVELOPS WITH HIGHS AND LOWS RISING EACH DAY. NEAR
NORMAL TODAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MDLS HAVE SLOWED THE MOVEMENT OF THE PLAINS LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC
FRONT WITH BEST PRECIP CHC FRI NITE MTNS AND SATURDAY REST OF THE
AREA. POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS EXISTS FRI NITE AND SAT GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND HEATING THAT OCCURS BEFORE IT MOVES IN.
HAVE SLOWED EWD PROGRESSION OF CHC POP FRI NITE...BUT KEPT LIKELY
FOR THE MTNS. LIKELY NRN TIER SAT...WITH CHC ELSEWHERE THRU THE
DAY AS FROPA SLOWER ON SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSUREE BUILDS IN SAT
NITE. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RETURN AROUND THE SOUTHEAST
HIGH TO WARRANT DIURNALLY FAVORED SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR
TSTMS MON AND TUE AFTN IN THE MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATM WILL REMAIN BONE-DRY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...SO THE ONLY CONCERN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WIND. EXPECT A
GENERAL LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY LATE MORNING AS MIXING INCREASES AND
PRESSURE GRADIENT RESPONDS TO POTENT SW TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE
AREA. WINDS MAY BACK SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNRISE IN ANTICIPATION OF THIS
FEATURE...THEN RETURN TO THE WNW DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTS
AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AGAIN LOW ENUF FOR RED FLAG CRITERIA MAJORITY OF
CWFA. WINDS AND/OR GUSTS WILL REACH CRITERIA OVER NC MTNS AND
GUSTS WILL BE CLOSE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT WINDS/GUSTS A LITTLE LOWER
OVER SC/GA. THEREFORE...GIVEN PREVIOUS COORDINATION WILL UPGRADE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NC MTNS. WILL HEADLINE
REST OF THE AREA WITH WINDS AND/OR RH. RH STILL LOW THU BUT
RECOVERS TO JUST ABOVE 25 PERCENT. WINDS WELL BELOW RED FLAG
CRITERIA THOUGH SO NO WATCH EXPECTED.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065 UNTIL 6
     PM WEDNESDAY.
  ...RED FLAG WARNING FOR NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065 FROM NOON
     WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ033-049-050 UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
  ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ034-054-055-066-067 UNTIL 6 PM
     WEDNESDAY.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...HG/RWH
AVIATION...JDL
FIRE WEATHER...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
627 AM EDT TUE APR 4 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-051100-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
627 AM EDT TUE APR 4 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. PLEASE SEE
CAENPWGSP FOR DETAILS.

VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA EXCEPT OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...FOREST SERVICE OFFICIALS STATE FUEL MOISTURES
ARE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS...SO NO RED FLAG WARNING IS NECESSARY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
OR GUSTS MAY REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA. COORDINATION WITH FOREST
SERVICE OFFICIALS WILL BE NEEDED TO DETERMINE THE NEED FOR A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.