High Wind Watch 2, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Elbert County, GA, Franklin County, GA, Hart County, GA, Stephens County, GA, Alexander County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Davie County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Union County, NC, Abbeville County, SC, Anderson County, SC, Cherokee County, SC, Chester County, SC, Greenwood County, SC, Laurens County, SC, Union County, SC, York County, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1246 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2006

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...

UPDATED THE ZONES TO INCLUDE THE LATEST HEADLINES FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. ALSO INCLUDE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 915 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006)

SHORT TERM (TODAY)
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS
UPSTATE SC...NE GA AND NC PIEDMONT. RADIATION FOG DEVELOPED QUICKLY
JUST AFTER SUNRISE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM NAM AT GSP/AND INDICATE
THAT DENSE FOG SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH IT MIXING OUT BY 16Z.
NEVERTHELESS...HAVE ADD AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO GRIDS/ZFP. ALSO
TWEAKED MAX TEMPS UPWARD OVER EASTERN AREAS BASED ON 06Z MAV
GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM ( PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A SOLID LINE OF
CONVECTION JUST EAST OF THE SURFACE FRONT...AND ADDITIONAL SCT TO
BKN CONVECTION BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE IN THE WARM SECTOR.
THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION WILL LEAN SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE FASTER GFS...
WHICH INITIALIZED BETTER AT 00Z. WITH DEWPOINTS RISING THROUGH
THE 40S INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY...SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES SHOULD REACH 500 TO 1000 J/KG BY LATE DAY. SFC TO 850 MB
WINDS WILL BACK AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH 00Z...WITH BL HELICITY
VALUES A WHOPPING 350 M2/S2 BY EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE AS A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE GREATEST WIND DAMAGE THREAT ALONG THE
LINEAR MCS AFTER 21Z. WILL MENTION SEVERE TSTMS AND ISSUE A SEVERE
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS AFTN/EVENING.

850 MB TEMPS QUICKLY DIVE BELOW FREEZING STARTING IN THE SMOKIES
FROM 00Z TO 06Z SAT. THE 500 MB COLD POOL IN THE TROUGH AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSIT THE HIGH TERRAIN BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY...WITH
SNOW LEVELS DROPPING RAPIDLY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN IN THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES TONIGHT...THEN THE EVENT WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A NW
UPSLOPE FLOW EVENT THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER COLD POOL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER THAN NORMAL
PRECIPITATION RATES...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE TN
BORDER COUNTIES OF THE NC MTNS MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT SAT
NIGHT.

THE PREFERRED GFS...WITH LESS OF A SOUTHERLY CUTOFF POSITION BY
LATE SAT...KEEPS THE TIGHTEST PRES GRAD ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NE GA THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE 850 MB JET MAY MAXIMIZE
AROUND 60 KT IN THE BEST COLD ADVECTION BY 00Z SUNDAY WITH A DEEP
LAYER OF STRONG WINDS UP TO 100 KT AT 500 MB BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND
06Z SUN. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING FOR HIGH WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN...AND AT LEAST ADVISORY IN ADJACENT LOCATIONS. WILL
POST MTN HIGH WIND WATCH FOR NOW BUT HOLD OFF IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE MID WEEK TIMING OF THE NEXT DIGGING
TROUGH SYSTEM.

AVIATION...
MOST IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THIS MORNING/S FOG POTENTIAL.
RATHER STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT THAT HAS EXISTED ACROSS THE AREA IS
RESULTING IN A LARGE RANGE IN CROSSOVER TEMP...16 AT KAVL AND 51
AT KCLT. THEREFORE...WILL FEATURE THE LOWEST VISBY AT KCLT (TEMPO
2SM) WITH ONLY VFR VISBY AT KGSP AND KAVL. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
STRATUS POTENTIAL AT KCLT...AS BL MOISTURE INCREASES LATER
TONIGHT...SO HAVE FEATURED SOME MVFR CIGS THERE. OTHERWISE...THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TIMING THE FRONTAL BAND ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TIMING...AND HAVE NOT ALTERED THIS MUCH. HOWEVER...DID INTRODUCE A
CB GROUP TO COINCIDE WITH CATEGORICAL SHOWERS...AS FORCING WILL BE
QUITE STRONG AND THE TIMING OF THIS EVENT WILL ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL
DESTABILIZATION. MVFR AND/OR IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY
THE FRONTAL BAND...BUT DUE TO SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTIES...WILL LIMIT
VIS/CIG TO 5SM/OVC035 ATTM.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR GAZ010-017 FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY TO 6
     AM SUNDAY.
  ...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR GAZ018-026-028-029 FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6
     AM SUNDAY.
NC...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR NCZ033-048>052-058 FROM MIDNIGHT
     SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT SUNDAY.
  ...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065 FROM
     MIDNIGHT SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY.
  ...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR NCZ034-054-055-066-067 FROM 6 AM
     SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY.
  ...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082 FROM 6 AM
     SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY.
  ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NCZ053-059-062 FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
     TO MIDNIGHT SUNDAY.
SC...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR SCZ001>003 FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY TO 6
     AM SUNDAY.
  ...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR SCZ004>014-019 FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM
     SUNDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...DEO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
555 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-141100-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
555 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY EARLY TODAY...AND CROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME OF THEM PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOR THE
LATEST DETAILS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...PLEASE
SEE THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...CAESPSGSP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

TEMPERATURES FALLING RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW
PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER FROM THE RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER
AND ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. A
WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. PLEASE
SEE CAEWSWGSP FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...AND WIND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH...POSSIBLE BY EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. A HIGH WIND
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ACTIVATED LATER TODAY. BE PREPARED
TO RELAY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE. COUNTY COMMUNICATIONS CENTERED SHOULD ENSURE THAT
EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE BRIEFED ON THE SEVERE WEATHER...WINTER
WEATHER...AND HIGH WIND THREAT FACING THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

GERAPETRITIS