High Wind Warning 7, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WWUS72 KGSP 312019
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
319 PM EST SUN DEC 31 2006

NCZ058-059-062>064-010430-
/O.CON.KGSP.HW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-070101T0500Z/
GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD
319 PM EST SUN DEC 31 2006

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM
ROBBINSVILLE TO SYLVA TO BREVARD.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER
THE SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30
MPH ARE EXPECTED...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60
MPH...ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 4 AND 10 PM...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING BY MIDNIGHT. 

THESE GUSTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES
ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. SOME LOWER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS MAY BE
SOMEWHAT SHELTERED FROM THE WIND...BUT NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED
VALLEYS COULD RECEIVE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DUE TO CHANNELING.

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF
58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

$$

GAZ010-NCZ033-048>053-065-507-509-SCZ001>003-010430-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0024.000000T0000Z-070101T0500Z/
RABUN-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
HENDERSON-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...
CHEROKEE...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...HENDERSONVILLE...LAKE LURE
319 PM EST SUN DEC 31 2006

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 50
MPH ARE ALSO LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
PEAK PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM THIS
EVENING...WITH WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS OF
THIS MAGNITUDE COULD CAUSE SCATTERED TREE AND POWER LINE DAMAGE.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH...OR FREQUENT
GUSTS ABOVE 45 MPH...ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE
DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE
EXTRA CAUTION.

$$

GERAPETRITIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
319 AM EST SUN DEC 31 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT IR LOOP AND REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITES INDICATE A LINEAR LINE
OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE MS/AL BORDER ATTM. THIS MATCHES UP WELL
WITH THE GFS PLACEMENT OF LOW LEVEL JET AND QPF MAXIMA AXIS. NOT TOO
MANY DIFFERENCES NOTED IN TIMING OF FRONT AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
EXPECTED BETWEEN THE SHORT RANGE MODELS. HOWEVER WILL SIDE WITH
THE MORE DYNAMIC GFS AS THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
WHILE STRONG UPPER JET PULLS H5 CLOSED LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY MONDAY. A DECENT SLUG OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND
THE LOW AND CROSS THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE POPS HAVE NOT BEEN EXTENDED.

MEANWHILE BACK ON TODAY...UPPER FORCING WILL BE STRONG AND DIFFLUENT
WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TMB COULD PROVIDE A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR SOME ISOLATED TS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES
ASSOCIATED WITH BOWING OR BREAKING CONVECTIVE LINES. THE 0-1KM SHEAR IS
VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH VALUES AROUND 400 M2/S2. ALSO...THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING MORE CAPE AND BETTER LI/S THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS. A
STRONG H85 JET AXIS WILL CROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY AS WELL...AND
WE WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES...EMPHASIZING GUSTS TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE FAIRLY QUICK ACROSS THE CWFA TONIGHT AND
SLOW DOWN JUST TO THE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.

NOT MUCH OF A WARM UP IS EXPECTED TODAY OR COOL DOWN OVERNIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL WEDGE GETS MAINTAINED WITH RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER AS TBM BREAKS DOWN WEDGE...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHERLY AND
A LITTLE WAA SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FAIRLY STABLE AND WARM OVERNIGHT
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AROUND 50.

THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND GOOD CAA WILL HIT THE
MOUNTAINS. WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT RIGHT
NOW WINDS LOOKS A LITTLE WEAK FOR ANY MENTION OF A HIGH WIND
WATCH. HOWEVER...SOME LEFT OVER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MAY BE
AVAILABLE FOR SOME NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BY 12Z TUESDAY.
TEMPS TUESDAY WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL FLAT RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND A LITTLE HIGHER ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER TEXAS BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AND THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRETTY
GOOD GOING INTO EARLY FRIDAY. NOT TOO WORRIED ABOUT WINTER WEATHER
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES ARE JUST WAY TOO WARM
PER THE LATEST GFS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION AS
ANOTHER STRONG H85 JET TRAVERSES THE AREA PROVIDING GOOD LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WHILE THE MODELS HINT AT INCREASING INSTABILITY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. EXPECT IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO DEVELOP AT MOST TAF SITES BY
1200 UTC...WITH CONDITIONS HOLDING STEADY UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WHEN
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE NE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND FOOTHILLS...AND OUT OF THE S AT KAVL.
THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER WITH TIME...WITH FLOW BECOMING SE AT
MOST FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT SITES AHEAD OF A BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS
THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.

THIS WILL MEAN A FEW HOURS OF NEARLY DUE EAST WINDS AT KCLT...MOST
LIKELY BETWEEN 20 AND 00 UTC TODAY. THERE MAY ALSO BE A LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR ISSUE THIS EVENING AS A 60-65 KT SLY 850 MB JET WORKS
ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE WITH WINDS TURING
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN ABOUT 03 AND 06 UTC.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...BPM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1137 AM EST SUN DEC 31 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-011645-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1137 AM EST SUN DEC 31 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON IS PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH.
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. A HIGH
WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
NORTH CAROLINA...AND A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
REST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA MOUNTAINS. PLEASE SEE THE URGENT WEATHER
STATEMENT...CAENPWGSP...FOR THE LATEST DETAILS ON THE STRONG
WINDS.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
NEAR THE BORDER BETWEEN THE GEORGIA...NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND CREEKS
ARE LIKELY...AND A FEW MAIN STEM RIVERS COULD APPROACH FLOOD
STAGE THROUGH MONDAY. THE THREAT OF FLOODING IS HIGHEST ALONG THE
SALUDA RIVER AT WEST PELZER...AND THE FRENCH BROAD RIVER AT
BLANTYRE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FLOOD ADVISORY...CAEFLSGSP...FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

AS THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS CROSS THE PIEDMONT LATE THIS EVENING...A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP. WHILE INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE VERY GREAT...A FAVORABLE TURNING OF THE WINDS WITH HEIGHT
WILL EXIST. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING THIS EVENING...AND BE SURE TO KEEP
ABREAST OF THE LATEST WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS AS CONDITIONS COULD
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY IN SOME LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND...RAINFALL...OR
THUNDERSTORM OBSERVATIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

HG