Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Franklin County, GA, Habersham County, GA, Hart County, GA, Rabun County, GA, Stephens County, GA, Alexander County, NC, Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Graham County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Jackson County, NC, Macon County, NC, Madison County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Swain County, NC, Transylvania County, NC, Yancey County, NC, Anderson County, SC, Cherokee County, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
328 AM EST WED NOV 15 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING...ENERGY DIVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CLOSE OFF MID/UPR LVL LOW...TRACK TOWARD
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TODAY AND THEN WOBBLE ENE THROUGH
THE MID-SOUTH TONIGHT. THE RESULTANT INCREASINGLY STRONG WAA PATTERN
DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM WILL AID CONSIDERABLY IN THE
EXPANSION AND INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACRS THE
CWFA. MASSIVE LARGE SCALE LIFT ALONG AND OUT AHEAD OF VIGOROUS VORT
MAX SWINGING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER LOW ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE UPPER JET POSITIONING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT COPIOUS
RAINFALL INTO TONIGHT.

STORM TOTAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND HPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT HAVE
NOW TRENDED TOWARD A HIGHER RISK OF EXPERIENCING FLOODING ACRS PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. HAVE GONE AHEAD AN HOISTED FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR ALL OF THE MTNS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS ROUGHLY ALONG AND
WEST OF A CONOVER TO SPARTANBURG TO ANDERSON LINE. SIMPLY CANNOT
IGNORE THE PROGGED SSELY 55-60 LLVL WHICH TRANSLATE ACRS THE CWFA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...GIVEN EXPECTED HVY RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...STRONG WINDS REACHING THE SFC ARE PROBABLE...
ESPECIALLY ACRS THE HIGH TERRAIN. ACCORDINGLY HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE NC/GA MTNS AND A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE HIGHER NC FOOTHILL ZONES AND SC MTNS. NO SURE HOW QUICKLY
GUSTS WILL BE REALIZED IN THE LOWER TERRAIN...SINCE A PERIOD OF
IN-SITU WEDGING IS PROBABLE...BUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTS ON
THE SAVANNAH RIVER LAKES COULD BECOME PROBLEMATIC AND THEN THIS
EVENING ELSEWHERE ACRS THE PIEDMONT. SPC NEW DAY 1 HAS SLIGHT RISK
AREA NOW AS FAR NORTH ALONG A LINE FROM KAVL-KCLT...AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO CREEP UP THE AMOUNT OF CAPE FCST TO BE AVAILABLE FOR
STORMS TO PROPAGATE THROUGH TONIGHT AS SELY ELY INFLOW OF HIGHER
THETA-E BOUNDARY LAYER OFF THE ATLANTIC COULD SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OR EVEN A TORNADO. PLAN ON ISSUING A SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK TO
ADDRESS THREAT.

OCCLUDED FRONT JUST TO OUR EAST BY 12Z THURSDAY AND FRONT SWEEPS
QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE AREA AS DRY SLOT MOVES IN SHUTTING OFF PRECIP
BY AFTERNOON...XCPT FOR MTNS. LOOKS LIKE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BE
FARTHER TO THE WEST THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AS COPIOUS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS AND FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE.
MOISTURE SLOWLY PULLS OUT BY FRIDAY MORNING AND NW FLOW ABATES.
TEMPS/THICKNESSES THURSDAY NIGHT DO FALL BELOW CRITICAL WINTER WX
LEVELS WITH BEST COLD AIR FROM 06Z TO 18Z FRIDAY. THAT SAID...STILL
NOT VERY COLD AT THE SURFACE. QPF REMAINS LOW...SO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS NOT EXPECTED ATTM.

WINDS DIMINISH THURSDAY...BUT WILL STILL BE WINDY TO BREEZY. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO DETERMINE IF WIND PRODUCTS SHOULD CONTINUE
DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE EARLY THURSDAY WITH COLD AIR
FILTERING FROM THE WEST. TEMPS ONLY A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND SHARPEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
SOME SHALLOW NW FLOW MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE NRN
NC MTNS ON SUNDAY...WITH THE MOISTURE BECOMING DEEPER AS THE UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
MINUS 8 DEGREES C BY MONDAY MORNING SHOULD SUPPORT SNOW IN THE
UPSLOPE AREAS AS LAPSE RATES STEADILY STEEPEN ALOFT. ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ARE FEATURED AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE BRIEF NATURE OF THE EVENT. THE NW FLOW MOISTURE WILL THEN
DRY UP BY MONDAY NIGHT AND DRY RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ON TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
IT WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE CIG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS
DUE TO PCPN DEVELOP ACRS THE FA. PREDOMINATE CONDITIONS FOR THE
UPSTATE TAFS AND KAVL SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND KCLT PERHAPS AS LONG AS 22 UTC. FROM THEN ON OUT
...THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBY AND INCREASINGLY GUSTY WIND
WILL RISE DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR GAZ010-017 FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM
     THURSDAY.
  ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028 FROM 1 PM
     WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM THURSDAY.
  ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR GAZ018-026-028-029 FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY
     TO 4 AM THURSDAY.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NCZ033>035-048>056-058-059-062>068-
     501>510 FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM THURSDAY.
  ...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065 FROM 1 PM
     WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM THURSDAY.
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ034-054-055-066-501-503-505-507-509 FROM
     1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM THURSDAY.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SCZ001>008-010 FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7
     AM THURSDAY.
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR SCZ001>003 FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM
     THURSDAY.
  ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR SCZ004>014-019 FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4
     AM THURSDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...CSH/RWH
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...CSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
346 PM EST TUE NOV 14 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-152100-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
346 PM EST TUE NOV 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM COULD ALSO
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO NEARLY 50 MPH IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS LATE
WEDNESDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IN PIEDMONT LOCATIONS. COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS
BEHIND THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE A SNOW AND SLEET MIX IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT...CAESPSGSP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HG