Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
316 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ERUPTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MUCH OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. AT LEAST LIKELY COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE
WESTERN SECTIONS...WITH SCATTERED TO THE SOUTH. WILL WATCH RADAR
TRENDS AND MAKE FINAL DECISION ON COVERAGE BEFORE ISSUANCE. MORE
SEVERE EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING EVEN WITH THE MOIST AIR MASS. CAPES
AS HIGH AS 4000 J/KG WITH SOME SPEED SHEAR. STORMS ARE MOVING MORE
TODAY WITH THE STRONGER WIND FLOW...HOWEVER THE NUMBER OF STORMS
COULD LEAD TO TRAINING. ISOLATED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ALREADY
OCCURRED...SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FLASH FLOODS. STORMS DIMINISH IN
STRENGTH AFTER SUNSET...BUT STORMS AND SHOWERS LINGER MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. RIDGE LINGERS TO OUR EAST AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL
SYSTEM...WITH TROF TO OUR WEST. MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES
SATURDAY...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS EXPECTED. COVERAGE SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY GIVEN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. LIKELY WEST TO LOW
CHANCE SOUTH. SEVERE CHANCE LESS SATURDAY...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
VERY MILD NIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT...AND COOLER SATURDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS
AND LOWER THICKNESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT APPEARS LIKELY FOR OUR FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A COMBINATION OF A SURFACE
BOUNDARY...TROPICAL MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW. THERE WILL
ALSO BE SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A TROF EVOLVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
IN ADDITION...THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT A TROPICAL LOW
WESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST STATES...THEN TREK IT TO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND IF THAT HAPPENS...THERE COULD BE AN
ENHANCEMENT TO OUR UPSLOPE FLOW FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE EASTERN
ESCARPMENT AND OTHER LOCATIONS WITH A SOUTHEAST ASPECT. THE TIME OF
HEAVIEST RAIN...AND GREATEST COVERAGE...APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WE FEATURE OUR HIGHEST CHANCES
OF RAIN THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT FOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING. THE HPC
5-DAY RAINFALL PROG INDICATES A WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCH SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WE PLAN TO ISSUE AN
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEKEND COINCIDENT WITH THIS
PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTING OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH ONLY ISOLATED
ELSEWHERE RIGHT NOW. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT ALL SITES AT
SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. LOW VFR LIKELY...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY BE LOWER IF CENTER OF CELLS MOVE DIRECTLY
OVER THE SITE. STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR VISIBILITY ALL SITES NEAR SUNRISE. WHERE RAIN FALLS...LONGER
MVFR PERIOD WITH TEMPO IFR LIKELY. COULD EVEN BE SOME LOW CEILINGS
AT THESE LOCATIONS. VFR EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE WITH CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CEILINGS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY...BUT WILL
WAIT UNTIL THE 00Z TAFS TO ADDRESS THESE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT VARIABLE AND GUSTY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL BE SLOW-MOVERS...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WHEREVER THEY FORM. STREAM AND WATER
LEVELS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CAREFULLY UNTIL CONVECTION
WEAKENS LATER TODAY. WE PLAN TO ISSUE AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEKEND COINCIDENT WITH THIS PACKAGE.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...SAB
AVIATION...RWH
HYDROLOGY...SAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
615 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-241015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
615 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. FOR FURTHER DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...SPSGSP...ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP EACH DAY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
332 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     HAIL             MARION                  35.68N 82.01W
06/23/2006  E1.00 INCH       MCDOWELL           NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE LIMBS ALSO BLOWN DOWN

&&

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
341 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BAT CAVE                35.45N 82.28W
06/23/2006                   HENDERSON          NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN NEAR BAT CAVE. RELAYED BY
            COUNTY EOC.

&&

GMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
342 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SYLVA                   35.37N 83.22W
06/23/2006                   JACKSON            NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A COUPLE OF TREES DOWN IN SYLVA.

&&

GMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
344 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0344 PM     HAIL             2 N GREER               34.97N 82.23W
06/23/2006  E0.75 INCH       GREENVILLE         SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
402 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     HAIL             LANDRUM                 35.17N 82.19W
06/23/2006  E0.75 INCH       SPARTANBURG        SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

0358 PM     HAIL             3 NW TAYLORS            34.95N 82.35W
06/23/2006  E1.00 INCH       GREENVILLE         SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
410 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0407 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S MORGANTON           35.70N 81.70W
06/23/2006                   BURKE              NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES DOWN SOUTH OF MORGANTON

&&

LG