Tornado Warning 4, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

000 
WWUS53 KGRR 212102
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
500 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

MIC075-212115-
/O.CON.KGRR.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-060621T2115Z/
JACKSON MI-
500 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JACKSON COUNTY UNTIL 515
PM EDT...

AT 456 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM PRODUCING A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR HORTON...OR
ABOUT 7 MILES WEST OF VANDERCOOK LAKE...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  BROOKLINE BY 510 PM EDT
  VANDERCOOK LAKE...WOODLAND...SOUTH JACKSON AND SOUTHLAND BY 515 PM
  EDT

A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN IS BELIEVED TO HAVE OCCURRED NEAR SWAINS 
LAKE AT 449 PM EDT.
 
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN.

LAT...LON 4219 8461 4212 8461 4209 8429 4228 8430

$$

JK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
248 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

.SHORT TERM...

AFTER THE CONVECTION EXITS THE AREA THIS EVENING THERE IS SOME
QUESTION OF CONVECTION HEAD OF THE CANADIAN COLD FRONT... WHICH
COMES THROUGH THE GRR CWA THURSDAY NIGHT?  THE OTHER ISSUE IS
JUST HOW COLD WILL IT GET BEHIND THE CANADIAN COLD FRONT FOR HIGHS
ON FRIDAY AND LOWS SATURDAY MORNING.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES AS THERE IS STILL 2000 TO
3000 J/KG OF 100 MB MIXED LAYER CAPE OVER THE SW CWA. THERE IS ALSO
AN AXIS OF 200 TO 300 J/KG OF CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30C LAYER UPSTREAM
OVER WI HEADING TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN. THAT MEANS THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF ELEVATED CAPE THAT CAN BE TAPPED YET. THE MAX
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE OF 7C IS OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AT THIS
TIME.  SO...UNTIL THE SECOND SHORTWAVE... SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR
LOOPS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA AT 18Z... WE STILL HAVE A CHANCE
OF SEVERE STORMS.  THUS I WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT...THE IOWA SHORTWAVE COMPLEX WILL BE THROUGH THE CWA BY
EARLY THIS EVENING. THAT SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE CONVECTION FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH DURING THE MID EVENING. SINCE THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT DOES
NOT GET INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN UNTIL
THURSDAY DURING THE MID DAY HOURS... SOME CONVECTION COULD LINGER
OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA TILL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE THE
CONVECTION SHOULD END BEFORE 10 PM.

THURSDAY...ANOTHER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST ON THE ZONAL FLOW OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM POLAR JET. MEANWHILE A DIGGING WAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE HUDSON BAY POLAR VORTEX PULLS A STRONG...FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY.
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN IS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF SOUTHERN
STREAM JET SPEED MAX DURING THE AFTERNOON TOO.  GIVEN THE LACK OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THIS IS A QUESTIONABLE EVENT AT BEST. ALL OF
THIS WILL ACT TOGETHER TO ALLOW A LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. IT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TODAY SINCE THERE
WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH
BUT THERE IS STILL THE ISSUE OF THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM JET OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THAT IS AIDED BY THE CONFLUENCE OF
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM JETS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THAT JET
ENTRANCE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE PULLED
NORTH AND KEEP THE SKY FROM CLEARING TILL FRIDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY NIGHT
COULD BE VERY CHILLY OF THE WAF-NAM IS CORRECT WITH THE 1000/925
THICKNESS AND HOW MUCH OF THAT CANADIAN COLD AIR GETS THIS FAR
SOUTH. LOW WILL BE WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED NEEDED.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH WILL STAY
WITH A DRY FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE NEXT CHC FOR PCPN
SHOULD COME ABOUT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  WILL
INTRODUCE CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF TUESDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD
THE CHCS ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

WDM JK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK..UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1110 AM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

LMZ844>849-MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-221000-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE-MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-
CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-MONTCALM-GRATIOT-
OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-INGHAM-VAN BUREN-
KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
1110 AM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN REMAINS IN A MODERATE RISK AREA FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MUSKEGON TO MOUNT PLEASANT
THROUGH THIS EVENING. NORTH OF THAT LINE THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL GIVE WAY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.  BY MID AFTERNOON NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AREA EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP NEAR ROUTE 131 AND THEN MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST AROUND 40 MPH.
IT IS THESE STORMS THAT WILL HAVE THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. THAT IS...LARGE HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO END BY 8 OR 9 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS WELL AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH... AND SOME OF THEM COULD BE SEVERE SOUTH AND
EAST OF GRAND RAPIDS. A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND THURSDAY.

MEADE WDM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1109 AM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     HAIL             S MECOSTA               43.62N 85.23W
06/21/2006  E0.75 INCH       MECOSTA            MI   PUBLIC

            HAIL FELL FROM 555 AM TO 6 AM.

&&

MKALEMBK