Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1025 AM EDT SAT APR 22 2006

.UPDATE...
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE TSRA POTENTIAL LATER TODAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A STRONG VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE STACKED UPPER LOW OVER WI. THIS HAS PUSHED A BAND OF
SHOWERS INLAND OFF THE LAKESHORE. IN SPITE OF FAVORABLE
REFLECTIVITIES ABOVE THE -20C LEVEL NEAR LUDINGTON...REPORTED CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE FAR NRN PART
OF LOWER MI. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... IMPRESSIVE LAPSE
RATES ARE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD POOL ALOFT. THIS IS
CONFIRMED BY LOCAL 12Z SOUNDINGS. THE WOLCOTT IN PROFILER HAS SHOWN
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN 0-6KM SHEAR WITH THE VORT MAX...SUGGESTING
THAT ROTATING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...VERY
LOW CAPE PROJECTED IN THE -10 TO -30C LAYER SUGGESTS HAIL SIZES
SHOULD STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE
IMPRESSIVE IN SPOTS. RUC13 ADVERTISES THE BEST INSTABILITY SHIFTING
N OF THE CWFA BY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE MENTIONED VORT MAX.
STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME STORMS IN OUR AREA...SO WILL LEAVE THE
WEATHER GRIDS AS IS. THE ONLY GRID CHANGES OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE WERE
BUMPING UP DEWPOINT AND RH GRIDS SLIGHTLY TODAY BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE NEARSHORE FORECAST.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

TJT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1040 AM EDT SAT APR 22 2006

LMZ844>849-MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-231000-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE-MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-
CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-MONTCALM-GRATIOT-
OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-INGHAM-VAN BUREN-
KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
1040 AM EDT SAT APR 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NORTH
OF A MOUNT PLEASANT TO LUDINGTON LINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE NORTH AND EAST
OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN BY SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

WDM TJT