Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
350 PM EDT WED JUN 28 2006

.SHORT TERM...
BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING EAST OUT OF THE GRAND RAPIDS
FORECAST AREA AS OF 330 PM. UPPER SHORTWAVE IS ROTATING EAST FROM
CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.
CONVECTION IS VERY MUCH ASSOCIATED WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS UPPER SHORTWAVE. THE UPPER SHORT WAVE AND
TROUGH MOVE EAST TONIGHT...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE COOL FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. NEXT SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.

TONIGHT...WILL CARRY THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...AND THEN MENTION PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. ONCE WE LOSE
DAYTIME HEATING...THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY. THE
LAKE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AS WELL. RADAR
RETURNS AND CUMULUS ARE DIMINISHING AS THEY MOVE OUT OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN FROM WISCONSIN.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CARRY A DRY FORECAST WITH SURFACE
RIDGING AND A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW IN PLACE. THERE WILL BE CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY...WITH COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE IN THE MID
LEVELS...BUT NOT EXPECTING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AT THIS POINT.
CELLULAR CU WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO MATCH SURROUNDING OFFICES
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH FRIDAY...
AND A CHANCE ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN THIS
SCENARIO AT THIS POINT...BUT THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF CONSEQUENCE MOVES OUR
DIRECTION INTO THE WEEKEND. FEEL THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL INTO SATURDAY...BUT MAINTAINED
CONTINUITY AT THIS POINT.

.LONG TERM...
THE FRONT THAT WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES EARLY IN
THE WEEKEND WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA LATE ON SAT/EARLY ON SUN.
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING...ESPECIALLY WITH
DIURNAL INSTABILITY SAT AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT
INTO SRN LOWER ON SUN BEFORE STALLING OUT AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER FLOW. WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE APPROACHES DURING THE DAY ON MON
AND MOVES THROUGH BY MON NIGHT...WHICH IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME TO
SWEEP THE WARMER AND UNSTABLE AIR WELL SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS
SHOULD DRY CONDITIONS OUT FOR TUE AND WED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

DUKE NJJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1015 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2006

LMZ844>849-MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-291000-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE-MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-
CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-MONTCALM-GRATIOT-
OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-INGHAM-VAN BUREN-
KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
1015 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON FROM WISCONSIN. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A WEAK
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE WILL PROVIDE
A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME OF THE STORMS ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS. THE
GREATEST THREAT FROM STORMS TODAY WILL BE HAIL. THE STRONGEST STORMS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL TO AROUND AN INCH IN DIAMETER. IN
ADDITION...SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE WINDS TO AROUND 60 MPH.
THUNDERSTORM MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE EAST AT 20 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE
LEVELS WITH WINDS 58 MILES AN HOUR OR GREATER AND HAIL THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR GREATER SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM LANSING TO KALAMAZOO ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

MWH DUKE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
236 PM EDT WED JUN 28 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     HAIL             LAWTON                  42.17N 85.85W
06/28/2006  E0.75 INCH       VAN BUREN          MI   OTHER FEDERAL

&&

BMARINO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
302 PM EDT WED JUN 28 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HAIL             LIBERTY                 42.10N 84.40W
06/28/2006  M0.75 INCH       JACKSON            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BMARINO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
410 PM EDT WED JUN 28 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     HAIL             PORTAGE                 42.20N 85.59W
06/28/2006  M0.75 INCH       KALAMAZOO          MI   PUBLIC

&&

BMARINO