Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

000 
WWUS53 KGRR 262028
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
428 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2006

MIC127-262038-
/O.CAN.KGRR.SV.W.0064.000000T0000Z-060626T2100Z/
OCEANA MI-
428 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR OCEANA COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND IS NO LONGER
SEVERE. THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4352 8635 4350 8609 4380 8611 4380 8638

$$

93

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
300 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW CUTOFF LOW PERSISTING OVER ERN IA. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DROPPING SE INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND APPEARS AS
IF IT WILL PHASE WITH THE LOW TO KEEP MEAN TROUGHING UPSTREAM OF OUR
CWFA FOR A BIT LONGER. ONE VORT MAX IS LIFTING N OVER LAKE MI AT
THIS TIME AND THE NEXT IS ROTATING AROUND THE SW QUADRANT OF THE
LOW. RADAR RETURNS HAVE PREDOMINATELY BEEN OVER THE LAKE AHEAD OF
THE VORT. HOWEVER...STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FIRE OUR OUR NRN CWFA
AND ARE TRACKING N.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SEEM LIKELY AS SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE MEAN TROUGH UPSTREAM OF THE CWFA
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TONIGHT - BOTH GFS AND NAM INDICATE THAT THE MENTIONED VORT LOBE
CURRENTLY ON THE SW QUAD OF THE UPSTREAM UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE INTO
THE CWFA. WILL THEREFORE KEEP A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA GOING OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY - SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SE USA WILL MOVE N
INTO THE CWFA IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL VORTICITY MAX LIFTING
NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WE RAISED POPS OVER OUR ERN ZONES DUE TO
GREATER EXPECTED SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE
LOW.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT - UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE E...BUT
THERE ARE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO
THE FINE DETAILS OF THE UPPER FORCING. GFSMOS POPS ARE QUITE HIGH IN
THE 60+ RANGE DURING THIS TIME. DECIDED TO STICK WITH PERSISTENCE
MAINLY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF DOES TOO BUT MOVES IT
OUT BY THE WEEKEND AND GOES MORE TOWARD ZONAL FLOW. TO SOME DEGREE
THE GFS TRIES TO DO THAT ALSO...BUT THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE GETS
FLATTENED OUT AND RESULTS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH MANY MINOR
SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...WE NEED TO MENTION A CHC OF
TSRA AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. WE/LL LEAN TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF CONVECTION LOOKS TO OCCUR
THURSDAY WHEN SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR ALOFT SWINGS THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM: TJT
LONG TERM: 93

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
600 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2006

LMZ844>849-MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-261000-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE-MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-
CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-MONTCALM-GRATIOT-
OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-INGHAM-VAN BUREN-
KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
600 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THROUGH THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

OSTUNO