Alert archive / Michigan / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2006

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

October 2, 2006Mecosta County, Montcalm County, Michigan

NWS Grand Rapids, MI issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Oct 2, 2006, 2:04 PM EDT for Mecosta County, Montcalm County, Michigan. It was in force for 24 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Oct 2, 2006, 2:04 PM EDT (18:04 UTC)
Expired: Oct 2, 2006, 2:28 PM EDT
In force: 24 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Rapids, MI
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Mecosta County, MI, Montcalm County, MI

The radar

The Grand Rapids radar (KGRR), 69 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 6.1 hours before the alert went out and 255 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 77 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -625 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1114 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 47 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 65 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 98 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Rapids, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Oct 2, 12:17 PM EDT, 1 hour 47 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 2, 12:17 PM EDT, 1 hour 47 minutes before

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 2, 12:59 PM EDT, 1 hour 5 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1259 PM EDT MON OCT 2 2006

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-031030-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
1259 PM EDT MON OCT 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT THEN STORMS
WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY WITH TIME AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR STORMS WILL BE FROM
LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH AND WEST. STORMS HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF BECOMING SEVERE
ANYWHERE IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THE MAIN THREATS
FROM STORMS WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL.
GIVEN THE RAINFALL MANY AREAS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED...ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO FLOODING. THUNDERSTORM MOVEMENT WILL BE TO
THE EAST AT 30 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A THREAT AS WILL HEAVY
RAINFALL. THIS COULD LEAD TO HIGH WATER LEVELS ON AREA STREAMS
AND RIVERS.

FINALLY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY COULD BRING MORE
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

LMZ844>849-031030-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE-
1259 PM EDT MON OCT 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL BRING WAVES TO 6 FEET TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
AS WELL. GUSTY WINDS..FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HAIL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS. ALL OF THESE CONDITIONS ARE
HAZARDOUS TO SMALLER CRAFT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE THREAT FOR WAVES TO 6 FEET AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND IS AGAIN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

WDM DUKE

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Oct 2, 12:00 PM EDT, 2 hours 4 minutes before

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Local storm report, Oct 2, 12:23 PM EDT, 1 hour 41 minutes before

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special weather statement, Oct 2, 12:49 PM EDT, 1 hour 15 minutes before

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special weather statement, Oct 2, 12:49 PM EDT, 1 hour 15 minutes before

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special weather statement, Oct 2, 1:48 PM EDT, 16 minutes before

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special weather statement, Oct 2, 1:52 PM EDT, 12 minutes before

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Rapids, MI issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 2, 4:45 AM EDT	Special Marine Warning	GRR		90 min
Oct 2, 7:47 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Van Buren	43 min
Oct 2, 8:11 AM EDT	Special Marine Warning	GRR		45 min
Oct 2, 10:09 AM EDT	Special Marine Warning	GRR		96 min
Oct 2, 10:51 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Muskegon	24 min
Oct 2, 11:01 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Ottawa	29 min
Oct 2, 11:23 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Muskegon, Newaygo	18 min
Oct 2, 11:44 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Muskegon, Ottawa	46 min
Oct 2, 2:38 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	GRR		67 min
Oct 2, 2:56 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Clinton	27 min
Oct 2, 4:53 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	GRR		37 min
Oct 2, 4:56 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Mason	64 min
Oct 2, 5:25 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	GRR	Mason	26 min
Oct 2, 5:37 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Lake, Newaygo, Oceana	68 min
Oct 2, 6:00 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	GRR		30 min
Oct 2, 6:45 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Newaygo, Oceana	75 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Michigan, 2006 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.