Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
345 PM EDT SAT APR 22 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
TONIGHT - WILL KEEP POPS GOING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR
NE ZONES. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A COUPLE OF WELL-DEFINED VORT
LOBES CLOSE TO THE UPPER LOW CENTER AND ROTATING OVER WI AT THIS
TIME THAT COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ADDITIONAL LIFT IN A STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE CONVECTION EVEN WITHOUT THE HELP OF
INSOLATION.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT - GFS...AND NAM TO A LESSER DEGREE...SHOW A
ANOTHER VORT MAX PIVOTING AROUND THE BACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND
ACROSS THE CWFA. HAVE PLACED HIGHER POPS OVER OUR ERN ZONES E OF THE
UPPER LOW.

MONDAY - SHORTWAVE RIDGING BETWEEN THE EXITING LOW AND THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN THE LOWEST POPS FOR THIS
ENTIRE TIME RANGE.

MONDAY NIGHT - THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GFS AND NAM
AT THIS POINT. THE FORMER IS SLOWER WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG A COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH OUR CWFA. WE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
COLDER AND SLOWER GFS SOLUTION AND THE WARMER AND FASTER NAM
SOLUTION AND MENTIONED POSSIBLE RAIN SNOW MIX ONLY OVER OUR NW ZONES
WHERE THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS PROGS -8 TO -10 C H8 TEMPS...
SIGNIFICANT POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE...AND DPVA IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT.
EVEN WITH THIS WORST CASE SCENARIO...IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINOR WITH NO
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

NO MARINE OR FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE MID RANGE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES
WITH SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES FOR THE SMALLER FEATURES. HAVE
ONLY MAKE SMALL CHANGES IN THE GRIDS FOR INTER OFFICE GRID
CONSISTENCY DUE TO SMALLER SCALE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST.

TUESDAY MAY SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS LINGERING BEHIND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING BY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE SWINGS BY
TO THE SOUTH. THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
REGION BY LATE FRIDAY. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM: TJT
LONG TERM: IOD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1040 AM EDT SAT APR 22 2006

LMZ844>849-MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-231000-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE-MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-
CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-MONTCALM-GRATIOT-
OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-INGHAM-VAN BUREN-
KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
1040 AM EDT SAT APR 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NORTH
OF A MOUNT PLEASANT TO LUDINGTON LINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE NORTH AND EAST
OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN BY SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

WDM TJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
250 PM EDT SAT APR 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0246 PM     HAIL             WHITE CLOUD             43.55N 85.77W
04/22/2006  E0.88 INCH       NEWAYGO            MI   PUBLIC

&&

BEACHLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
340 PM EDT SAT APR 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     HAIL             EDMORE                  43.41N 85.04W
04/22/2006  E0.75 INCH       MONTCALM           MI   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MKALEMBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
759 PM EDT SAT APR 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0731 PM     HAIL             HANOVER                 42.10N 84.55W
04/22/2006  M1.00 INCH       JACKSON            MI   PUBLIC

&&

BEACHLER

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