Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
456 PM EDT WED AUG 02 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LINE OF CONVECTION IS NOW FORMING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM NRN
LWR MI SW ACROSS SRN WI. FRONT IS SLOW TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING... SO MAIN THREAT FOR SVR WX IS IN THE NRN CWFA WHERE BEST
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST. MAIN
THREAT IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS FROM SHORT BOWING SEGMENTS. SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT MAY ALSO RESULT IN TRAINING OF CELLS AND A
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.

COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE SE CWFA THURSDAY MORNING BUT HAVE
HELD ON TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ALL DAY IN THE SOUTH IN CASE
THE FRONT SLOWS/STALLS. OTHERWISE COOLER LESS HUMID AIR FILTERING
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT/THURSDAY... WITH MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.MARINE...STRONG SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS RESULTED IN WAVES OF
UP TO 6 FEET TODAY. ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAGGY
GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW WINDS/WAVES TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER
THE NORTH FLOW COLD ADVECTION ON THURSDAY WILL LIKELY CAUSE THEM TO
KICK UP AGAIN. WE COULD NEED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON
THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF GRAND HAVEN.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE DRY WX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL DROP IN FROM THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING A
CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS. HOWEVER PROBABILITIES OF RAIN WITH
THAT SYSTEM LOOK QUITE LOW SINCE GUIDANCE RH PROGS INDICATE MOISTURE
WITH THE FRONT WILL BE VERY LIMITED. THEN BEYOND THAT ANOTHER SFC
HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WX AND PRODUCE DRY WX
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 8
PM THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GRR CWFA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE LAKE MI NEARSHORE FROM ST
JOSEPH TO MANISTEE UNTIL 11 PM.

&&

MEADE LAURENS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1212 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2006

LMZ844>849-MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-031015-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE-MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-
CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-MONTCALM-GRATIOT-
OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-INGHAM-VAN BUREN-
KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
1212 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ONE MORE DAY OF HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE A COLD
FRONT COMES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND BRINGS COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BACK TO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. UNTIL THEN...WITH CONSIDERABLE
SUNSHINE FROM INTERSTATE 96 SOUTH...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO
BETWEEN 100 DEGREES AND 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. SUN STROKE...HEAT
CRAMPS AND OR HEAT EXHAUSTION ARE LIKELY FOR ANYONE WITH PROLONGED
EXPOSURE OUTSIDE.

WAVES OF 3 TO 7 FEET WILL POSE A HAZARD FOR SMALL CRAFT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE... SO
SWIMMERS VENTURING OUT INTO LAKE MICHIGAN WILL WANT TO BE EXTRA
CAUTIOUS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NEAR AND NORTH OF ROUTE 10
THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW OF THESE COULD BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT THERE A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE AREA WITH THE COLD
FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 40 MPH THROUGH THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SOME LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY MORNING
BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WDM BDM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
630 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2006

MIZ052-059-022300-
CLINTON-GRATIOT-
630 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2006

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 630 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTH OF
ELSIE TO 12 MILES WEST OF ST. JOHNS...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
EUREKA...BANNISTER...ST. JOHNS...ELSIE.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BECOME DAMAGED...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAS PASSED.

MJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
801 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2006

MIZ064-071-030100-
ALLEGAN-VAN BUREN-
801 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2006

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 8 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES NORTH OF
BANGOR TO 13 MILES WEST OF BANGOR...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
KIBBIE...LACOTA...MILL GROVE...SOUTH MONTEREY...ARMSTRONG CORNERS...
HOPKINSBURG.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BECOME DAMAGED...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAS PASSED.

MJS