Snow Advisory 9, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
930 AM CST FRI DEC 1 2006

.UPDATE AT 930 AM...WILL ISSUE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MANITOWOC COUNTY
FOR 3 TO 7 INCHES. 3 SNOW SO FAR ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND IMPRESSIVE
BAND ON RADAR THAT IS NEARLY STATIONARY. WILL ALSO ISSUE A SNOW ADVISORY
FOR KEWAUNEE AND CALUMET COUNTIES. EASTERN PARTS OF THOSE COUNTIES WILL
PROBABLY GET 3 OR SO.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERN IS EFFECTS OF
WINTER STORM MOVG THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY.

GOING FCST LOOKED VERY GOOD FOR TODAY...SO ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES
TO QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE 00Z NAM-WRF SEEMED TO BE DOING THE BEST
WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE AND QPF DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...SO
LEANED HEAVILY ON IT FOR THE SHORT-TERM FCST. RADAR/SFC OBS SHOWED
SOME FLURRIES OVER MUCH OF THE FA...WITH SOME WEAK LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES NEAR THE BAY/LAKE. THE MAIN SNOW BAND OVER SE WI WAS
ADVANCING NWWD AT ABOUT 10 KTS...WHICH SHD BRING IT TO THE MANITOWOC
AREA BY AROUND 12Z. SYSTEM SNOWFALL SHOULD BE CONFINED TO ABOUT THE SE
THIRD OF GRB CWA...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A LIGHT DUSTING OVER THE
WAUTOMA...NEW LONDON AND MARINETTE AREAS...TO 3 TO 5 INCHES IN MANITOWOC
COUNTY. WILL KEEP THE SNOW ADVISORY GOING FOR MANITOWOC COUNTY THROUGH
THE DAY. BLUSTERY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE BAYSHORE...FOX
VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH
RANGE. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE NEW SNOW. THE
MAIN SNOW BAND SHOULD MOVE OUT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER NC WI LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVG AS
A S/W TROF PASSES THROUGH...AND LLVL WINDS BECOME BRIEFLY FAVORABLE FOR
LK-EFFECT OFF LK SUPERIOR. ANOTHER S/W TROF WILL AFFECT NORTHERN WI
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE OF MORE SNOW SHOWERS.

TEMPS WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE THICKER CLOUD COVER
MOVED INTO THE RGN. WAS A LITTLE SKEPTICAL OF THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
TODAY...AS THEY WERE WAY TOO WARM YDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EARLY
MORNING WARM UP...HAVE OPTED TO ONLY GO SLIGHTLY BLO GUIDANCE TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY
NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL ENTER THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...
AND THEN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO THE REGION. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM PASSES...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THESE FEATURES. THINK MAX/MINIMUM GRIDS MAY BE TOO WARM
BASED ON 850MB TEMPERATURES OFF OF THE GFS/ECMWF.

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK INTO
THE END OF THE WEEK. GFS WOULD SUPPORT A SLOW MODERATING TREND BY
NEXT THURSDAY...WHILE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR
INTO THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. SINCE CANADIAN WAS SIMILAR TO THE
GFS...CONTINUED OUR TEMPERATURE/PRECIPITATION TRENDS FOR LATE NEXT
WEEK. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF THE GFS CHANGES IT OUTCOME TO
A COLDER ECMWF...OR THE ECMWF WILL MODIFY TOWARDS THE GFS MODEL.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON
WIZ050-
&&

KIECKBUSCH/ECKBERG
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

RDM
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
545 AM CST FRI DEC 1 2006

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-021200-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-
LINCOLN-LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-SOUTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-
MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-
WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
545 AM CST FRI DEC 1 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL AFFECT PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY.
AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH IN THE OSHKOSH...GREEN BAY AND
STURGEON BAY AREAS TO AS HIGH AS 3 TO 5 INCHES IN MANITOWOC COUNTY.
A SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MANITOWOC COUNTY. GUSTY NORTH
WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY
BECOME LOCALLY HAZARDOUS OVER THE EASTERN FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE
AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NECESSARY TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT
SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WOULD BE APPRECIATED TODAY.

LMZ521-522-541>543-564-021200-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-THE ADJOINING
WISCONSIN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN OUT TO MID-LAKE-
545 AM CST FRI DEC 1 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GREEN BAY...AND LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
TO SHEBOYGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. NORTH
WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL PRODUCE WAVES AS HIGH AS 5 TO 8 FEET THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

KIECKBUSCH/ECKBERG
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY