Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
330 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006

.SHORT TERM...TNGT AND MON. MAIN FCST CHALLENGE WL BE AMT OF CLDS/SML
PCPN CHCS LATE TNGT INTO MON ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPR TROF/SFC
BNDRY.

THE 18Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED ONE SFC BNDRY EXTENDED FROM THE
CNTRL U.P. SWWD TO MTW TO FAR NW IL. LRG AREA OF SHWRS WERE LOCATED AHD
OF THE SFC BNDRY AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SOME TSTMS HAD DEVELOPED OVR
SE WI. ADDL TSTMS HAD POPPED UP ACROSS NE WI ALONG THE DEWPT
DISCONTINUITY AXIS. VSBL SATL IMAGERY SHOWED BRIEF CLEARING OVR THE NW
HALF OF WI WITH ONLY FAIR WEATHER CU. MORE CLDS WERE LOCATED OVR NRN MN
HAD OF THE NXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT NE WI.

HAVE LINGERED A SML CHC OF EARLY EVENING SHWRS/TSTMS OVR ERN WI AHD OF
THE DEWPT DISCONTINUITY AXIS WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE...WHILE THE ONE UPR SYSTEM/SFC BNDRY HEADS
EAST THIS EVENING...ATTN TURNS TO THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE ANOTHER UPR
TROF/SFC BNDRY WL BE DROPPING TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LKS. LRG SWATH OF
CLDS (WHICH ARE PICKED UP WELL BY MDLS 925 MB RH) EXPECTED TO SWEEP
ACROSS NE WI LTR TNGT. PREFER THE DRIER GFS/NGM FOR PCPN AS THE NAM APRS
OVERDONE CONSIDERING THE TIME OF DAY AND LACK OF DEEP MSTR (DEW PTS IN
THE 50S). HAVE TIMED THE CHC OF LGT SHWRS/SPRINKLES AFTER MIDNGT ACROSS
N-CNTRL WI...AND LATE TNGT FOR FAR NE WI. MIN TEMPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED A
DEG OR TWO FROM PREV FCST.

THE UPR TROF/SFC BNDRY SLIP THRU NE WI MON MORNING AND EXIT THE RGN BY
AFTERNOON. BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN FROM NRN WI NWD...THUS HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED A SML CHC POP ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTED UPR TROF TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SUNSHINE
TO DVLP. A COOLER TEMP REGIME TO BE IN PLACE MON AFTERNOON WITH 8H TEMPS
ONLY AROUND +10C. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE A GOOD 5 TO 15 DEGS COOLER THAN
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE
PRECIP CHCS FOR THE MID-LATE PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WX OVER GRB CWA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MODELS BRING PRECIP CLOSE TO OUR SW COUNTIES LATE IN THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...BUT THINK THAT LLVL FLOW OUT OF THE SFC HIGH WILL KEEP PRECIP
OUT OF OUR AREA UNTIL EVG. MODELS AGREE ON LIFTING A H8 WARM FRONT INTO
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THIS...COMBINED WITH 35-40KT LLJ...SHOULD RESULT
IN MCS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS MOST OF GRB CWA IN THE
SLGT RISK...BUT THINK THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE IN C/EC WI...WHERE
THE ELEVATED INSTAB WILL BE STRONGER. A STRONG DRY SLOT PUNCHES INTO
WI ON WEDS...WHICH MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...CANNOT COMFORTABLY GO WITH A DRY FCST ATTM.

WEDS NGT INTO FRIDAY PERIOD IS A BIT OF A QUESTION MARK. HAVE REMOVED
POPS FOR WEDS NGT...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST...AND LITTLE DYNAMIC
FORCING OR MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE FA
SOMETIME DURING THE THU/FRI TIME PERIOD. THE GFS IS FASTEST WITH THE
FRONT...DROPPING IT INTO NORTHERN WI ON THURS AFTERNOON...BUT SLOWER
SOLNS AS DEPICTED BY ECMWF AND CANADIAN SEEM MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE RGN. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH THE CHC OF PRECIP ON
THURS FOR THE SAKE OF CONSISTENCY...BUT GUT FEELING IS THAT THURS WILL
BE DRY. SMALL POPS MAY BE NEEDED THU NGT/FRI IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHD KEEP THE FA DRY OVER THE WEEKEND.

STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO MEX GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN
DROPPING BACK TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

KALLAS/KIECKBUSCH
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-191200-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-
LINCOLN-LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-SOUTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-
MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-
WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY. THE STORMS SHOULD STAY
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...AND ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...
AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ORGANIZED SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT...BUT SPOTTERS
ARE URGED TO REPORT ANY OCCURRENCES OF HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS.

LMZ521-522-541>543-564-191200-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-THE ADJOINING
WISCONSIN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN OUT TO MID-LAKE-
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GREEN BAY...AND LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
TO SHEBOYGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL SUNSET. THE STRONGEST STORMS
MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. BOATERS ARE URGED TO
HEAD FOR PORT IF THREATENING WEATHER IS OBSERVED.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...
AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.

KALLAS/KIECKBUSCH
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
443 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ATHELSTANE              45.43N 88.09W
06/18/2006                   MARINETTE          WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ONE POWER LINE DOWN

&&

TH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
616 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             APPLETON                44.26N 88.40W
06/18/2006  E0.50 INCH       OUTAGAMIE          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1/2 INCH HAIL WAS REPORTED AT HIGHWAY 441 AND CE IN
            SOUTHEAST APPLETON.

0603 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     APPLETON                44.26N 88.40W
06/18/2006                   OUTAGAMIE          WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED IN SOUTHEAST APPLETON AT 603 PM BY
            THE OUTAGAMIE COUNTY SHERIFF DEPARTMENT. TRAINED WEATHER
            SPOTTERS ALSO CONFIRMED THE FUNNEL CLOUD AT 605 PM.

&&

ROYE

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