Severe Thunderstorm Warning 146, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
245 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2006

.SHORT TERM...TNGT AND TUE. MAIN FCST CONCERN TO BE COVERAGE OF SVR
POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON.

THE 18Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A VERY WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES OVR WRN WI
WITH A WRMFNT STRETCHED E-SE THRU CNTRL WI. A CDFNT EXTENDED FROM
N-CNTRL TO WEST-CNTRL WI. VSBL SATL IMAGERY INDICATED SEVERAL AREAS OF
CBS WITH ONE MAIN AREA DRAPED WEST TO EAST ACROSS WI WHERE OLD OLDFLOW
BNDRY EXISTED FROM OVRNGT CONVECTION. SOME OF THE TSTMS HAD PRODUCED
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...THUS SVR TSTM WATCH #806 IN EFFECT INTO THIS
EVENING SOUTH OF A MARSHFIELD TO KEWAUNEE LINE.

SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS WL CONT THIS EVENING ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW BNDRY AS
THE CDFNT SAGS SWD INTO THE FCST AREA AND MODERATELY-STG SHRWTV PUSHES
INTO SRN WI/NRN IL. CAPES AROUND 2K J/KG AND SFC LIS DOWN AS LOW AS -6
TO COMBINE WITH IMPRESSIVE MID LVL LAPSE RATES...TO PRODUCE A THREAT OF
SVR STORMS INTO THIS EVENING. SINCE SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
STG...EXPECT MULTICELLULAR CELLS WITH LRG HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. AS
DAYTIME HEATING WANES THIS EVENING AND THE SHRTWV STARTS TO HEAD TOWARD
LWR MI/NRN IN...SHWRS/TSTMS TO BECOME MORE WDLY SCT OVRNGT. WEAK HI PRES
ACROSS SRN CANADA SHOULD KEEP ENUF DRY AIR IN PLACE OVR NRN WI TO KEEP
THAT PART OF THE STATE DRY TNGT. MOIST ATM IN PLACE...COMBINED WITH LGT
WNDS/ANY PCPN THAT HAS FALLEN...ALL POINT TO FOG DEVELOPING LATE TNGT
MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI. HAVE A DECENT TEMP GRADIENT FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH BASED ON ANTICIPATED CLD CVR AND MSTR CONTENT.

MDLS CONCUR THAT A SFC WAVE WL DVLP ALONG THE STALLING CDFNT AND MOV
INTO THE MIDWEST BY 00Z WED. THIS WAVE WL PREVENT THE FNT FROM MOVG (IF
AT ALL)...THUS ALLOWING FOR MSTR TO POOL ALONG THE BNDRY. WHILE THIS IS
OCCURRING...A STG SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO LIFT NE TOWARD THE UPR MIDWEST
AND ADD ADDL FORCING TO THE SITN. AT THE SFC...A 40 KT LOW LVL JET WL
CONT TO ADD MSTR TO THE ATM WITH A SHARP GRADIENT NEAR THE SFC BNDRY.
EXPECT A CHC OF TSTMS TO INCREASE THRU THE DAY WITH SVR PSBL BY LTR
AFTERNOON AS SHEAR PROFILES BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS INCREASE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPS LOOK GOOD AND FAVORED
MORE CONSISTENT MAV GUID.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE
PRECIP TRENDS TUES NGT INTO WEDS MORNING...AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH SFC WAVE RIPPLING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TUES NGT...SO HAVE LINGERED HIGH POPS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN
WENT WITH A SLOWER DECREASING TREND IN THE PRECIP LATE TUES NGT INTO
WEDS MORNING. DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY (GFS/NGM
ARE MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE NAM/UKMET)...THE THREAT OF SVR TSTMS
COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SE 1/2 OF
THE CWA. THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR/INSTAB APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

THE FRONT WILL MAKE A SURGE TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS...WITH
STG NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEDS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEEMS LIKELY...AND A GALE WARNING IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION.

LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF BACKING OFF ON SKY COVER FOR THE THU/FRI PERIOD...AND
REMOVING POPS FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
IS STILL EXPECTED TO KEEP US DRY WED-FRI...FOLLOWED BY CHC POPS FOR
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

KALLAS
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
330 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2006

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-032030-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-
LINCOLN-LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-SOUTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-
MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-
WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
330 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR NORTH A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE. IF IT STAYS CLOSE TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THERE
MAY BE A THREAT OF TORNADOES OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL IMPACT PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH. THE WINDS
COULD GUST TO 40 MPH OVER DOOR COUNTY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LMZ521-522-541>543-564-032030-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-THE ADJOINING
WISCONSIN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN OUT TO MID-LAKE-
330 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GREEN BAY...AND LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
TO SHEBOYGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT
THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL DURING THE EVENING HOURS...MAINLY SOUTH
OF STURGEON BAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT
HOW FAR NORTH A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE. IF IT STAYS
CLOSE TO EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN... THERE MAY BE A THREAT OF WATERSPOUTS
OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE MARINE FORECAST AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL IMPACT AREAS SOUTH OF STURGEON BAY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MARINE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY APPEARS IMMINENT...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT GALE FORCE WINDS
MAY DEVELOP.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

KIECKBUSCH/KALLAS
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
240 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2006

WIZ035>040-045-048>050-022200-
WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-
CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
INCLUDING WISCONSIN RAPIDS...STEVENS POINT...APPLETON...GREEN BAY...
ALGOMA...WAUTOMA...OSHKOSH...CHILTON AND TWO RIVERS
240 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2006

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  THE THREAT FOR STORMS WITH HAIL UP TO AN INCH
IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS EXISTS UNTIL EARLY EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN UNTIL 9 PM.

JKL
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
326 PM CDT MON OCT 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     HAIL             BRILLION                44.18N 88.06W
10/02/2006  E0.75 INCH       CALUMET            WI   PUBLIC

            ALSO EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN.

&&

JKL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
330 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2006

WIZ035>040-045-048>050-022300-
WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-
CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
INCLUDING WISCONSIN RAPIDS...STEVENS POINT...APPLETON...GREEN BAY...
ALGOMA...WAUTOMA...OSHKOSH...CHILTON AND TWO RIVERS
330 PM CDT MON OCT 2 2006

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  THE THREAT FOR STORMS WITH HAIL UP TO AN INCH
IN DIAMETER...GUSTY WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN EXISTS UNTIL EARLY
EVENING.  THE STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN UNTIL 9 PM.

JKL
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

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