Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
345 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. FORECAST FOCUS ON SEVERE WEATHER THIS
EVENING.

SEVERE WEATHER ONGOING ALONG OF AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THRU
THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS THE
LACK OF SHEAR PREVENTS CONVECTION FROM ORGANIZING ONCE THE HIGH LEVELS
OF CAPE ARE GONE. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES ON TUESDAY AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES BACK NORTH THRU THE STATE AS DEPICTED BY THE
MODELS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...PRECIP CHCS AND TEMPS
ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST WERE MINOR. DID INCREASE POPS A BIT DURING
THE TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF A SVR MCS MOVG
THROUGH GRB CWA. ALSO MAINTAINED CHC POPS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A DRY PERIOD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS INTO THE RGN. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES OCCUR IN THE MODEL SOLNS
FOR SUN/MON...WITH THE ECMWF/UKMET SUGGESTING A MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN...WITH NW FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS OVER THE GREAT LKS. HPC SUGGESTS
USING A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THAT SOLN...AND THE ZONAL FLOW...AND MUCH
WARMER TEMPS...DEPICTED BY THE GFS. STILL WENT WITH SMALL PRECIP CHCS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR SUN/MON. TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED WITH
SUBSEQUENT FCSTS.

&&

.GRB...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

KURIMSKI/KIECKBUSCH
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1115 AM CDT MON JUL 24 2006

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-251615-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-
LINCOLN-LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-SOUTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-
MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-
WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
1115 AM CDT MON JUL 24 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN BUILD SOUTH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE
SEVERE...AND PRODUCE HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS OR NEAR THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. BE SURE
TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO PROVIDE MORE SPECIFIC
INFORMATION OF THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

LMZ521-522-541>543-564-251615-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-THE ADJOINING
WISCONSIN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN OUT TO MID-LAKE-
1115 AM CDT MON JUL 24 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GREEN BAY...AND LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
TO SHEBOYGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN BUILD SOUTH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE
SEVERE...AND PRODUCE HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS OR NEAR THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. BE SURE
TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO PROVIDE MORE SPECIFIC
INFORMATION OF THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

KURIMSKI
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
139 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     HAIL             10 NE TOMAHAWK          45.56N 89.58W
07/24/2006  E1.00 INCH       ONEIDA             WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            JUNCTION OF HWYS 51 AND 8

&&

PLH

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
320 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0318 PM     HAIL             BONDUEL                 44.73N 88.44W
07/24/2006  E1.75 INCH       SHAWANO            WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

PLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
324 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0319 PM     HAIL             MARINETTE               45.09N 87.61W
07/24/2006  M1.00 INCH       MARINETTE          WI   AIRPLANE PILOT

0318 PM     HAIL             MARINETTE               45.09N 87.61W
07/24/2006  E0.75 INCH       MARINETTE          WI   AIRPLANE PILOT

0318 PM     HAIL             MARINETTE               45.09N 87.61W
07/24/2006  E0.75 INCH       MARINETTE          WI   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

PLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
353 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0349 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     ZACHOW                  44.73N 88.34W
07/24/2006                   SHAWANO            WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

PLH