High Wind Watch 1, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
430 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

.SHORT TERM...VERY UNUNUSAL STORM BEING FORECAST BY THE MODELS. DO NOT
EVER RECALL SEEING SUCH A DEEP SURFACE LOW AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
STRONG COUPLED JET STRUCTURE LEADS US TO BELIEVE SUCH A SOLUTION IS
POSSIBLE. IF THIS IS THE CASE WE WILL HAVE HIGH WIND AND SNOW CONCERNS.
WINDS OF 60 TO 80 KNOTS AT 850 MB ARE FORECAST BY MODELS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH PART OF THURSDAY IN THE EAST. 50+ KNOT WINDS FORECAST AT 925
MPB. THINK THAT WINDS WILL REACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA IN THE FOX
VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS WHERE REDUCED FRICTION AND FUNNELING ARE
FACTORS. FURTHER WEST THINK THAT THERE COULD BE STRONG WINDS TOO AS LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE LESS STABLE. ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH SOUTHEAST OF
AN IRON MOUNTAIN TO FRIENDSHIP LINE. NEXT ISSUE IS SNOW. GFS FORECASTS
850MB TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO -5C THURSDAY IN THE NORTHCENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE AS LATENT HEAT OF MELTING AND STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT COMBINE
TO CAUSE RAPID COOLING. THINK IS IS PLAUSIBLE...AS WAS THE CASE IN OUT
OF SEASON SNOWFALL ON OCTOBER 4 1987 IN EASTERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT AND
 IN MAY 10 1990 SNOWFALL IN WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN WHEN 6-20
INCHES OF SNOW FELL. NCEP FORECASTER TOLD US THAT THEY THOUGHT GFS WAS
DEPICTING COOLING BETTER THAN THE NAM OR ECMWF. SO ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR FOUR MOST NORTHERN COUNTIES IN OUR FORECAST AREA. IT MIGHT BE
DIFFICULT TO GET A LOT OF SNOW TO STICK WITH WARM GROUND AND STRONG
WINDS...BUT WET SNOW ON TREES WITH LEAVES AND STRONG WINDS COULD CAUSE
PROBLEMS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH COOLING TAKES PLACE AND TIME OF
YEAR BELIEVE WATCH IS JUSTIFIED. THIS COULD BE A MEMORABLE EVENT GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AT THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...THU NGT THRU NXT TUE. MAIN FCST CHALLENGE TO BE CENTERED ON
 THE EXTENT OF PCPN THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH PESKY STG
STORM.

VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM PROGGED TO REMAIN PARKED OVR SRN LK MI/WRN LWR
MI THU NGT THEREBY KEEPING THE WET AND WINDY CONDITIONS GOING OVR NE WI.
STILL APRS THAT DYNAMIC COOLING WL BE STG ENUF FOR SNOW TO MIX WITH THE
RAIN OVR NRN WI...ESP OVR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CURRENT THINKING IS ANY
ADDL ACCUMULATIONS WOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH. SYSTEM WOBBLES A BIT WWD
TOWARD SE WI/SRN LK MI ON FRI PROMISING A CONTINUATION OF SHWRS ACROSS
THE FCST AREA. PREFER TO BUMP POPS UP TO LIKELY AS PIECES OF SHRTWV
ENERGY ROTATE AROUND THE UPR LOW AND PERSISTENT MSTR INFLOW TO EXIST.
SINCE THE SFC LOW WL BE CLOSER TO NE WI ON FRI...WNDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NOT NEARLY AS STG AS WITNESSED ON THU. MAX TEMPS TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY
THE 40S WITH A FEW 50S ACROSS THE SRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.

MDLS SHOW SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE UPR LOW FRI NGT AS IT DRIFTS
SWD. GFS MOST PRONOUNCED WITH A SW MOVEMENT WHILE THE NAM GOES WITH A SE
SHIFT AND THE ECMWF MAINTAINS NOT MOVEMENT AT ALL. EVENTUAL DIRECTION
THE SYSTEM TAKES WL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER AS CHC
POPS NECESSARY AS ALL MDLS INDICATE QPF. HAVE REMOVED THE RAIN/SNOW
POSSIBILITY OVR NRN WI AS TEMPS ALOFT (8H) ARE ABV THE FREEZING MARK.
SYSTEM BEGINS TO WEAKEN ON SAT...HOWEVER THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MDL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHERE THE SYSTEM WL BE BY 00Z SUNDAY. GFS CONTS TO
ADVERTISE A QUICK DEPARTURE TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WHILE THE ECMWF
(AND THE UKMET TO A DEG) MAINTAIN A SLOWER MOVEMENT SEWD. DUE TO THE
OVERALL SLOW NATURE OF THIS UPR LOW AND A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
KICKER...WL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH TRANSLATES TO ANOTHER DAY OF CHC
POPS ACROSS NE WI ON SAT. TEMPS SHOULD START A GRADUAL REBOUND SAT AS
THE COLD CORE TEMPS ALOFT SHIFT SOUTH.

APS THAT PCPN WL BE SCT AT BEST ON SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM HEADS TOWARD THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ANY PCPN THAT DOES FALL WOULD SEEM TO BE INSTABILITY
VARIETY AS TEMPS ALOFT ARE STILL COOL CONSIDERING IT IS MID-MAY. BELIEVE
THE MEX GUID TO BE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ON TEMPS AND PREFER THE COOLER
TEMPS FROM PREV FCST. NE WI TO RESIDE BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MON AS THE OLD
UPR LOW SPINS OVR THE OHIO VALLEY AND A NEW UPR TROF BEGINS TO DROP
SOUTH OVR MANITOBA/ONTARIO. RETURN OF MIXED SUNSHINE SHOULD BRING TEMPS
INTO THE 60S ACROSS ALL OF NE WI. GFS WANTS TO QUICKLY DROP THE
CANADIAN UPR TROF SWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LKS RGN NXT TUE...BUT HAVE MY
DOUBTS AS THE GFS IS TYPICALLY TOO QUICK MOVG SYSTEMS ACROSS THE
COUNTRY. PREFER TO STAY THE COURSE AND KEEP TUE DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

RDM
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

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