Freeze Warning 7, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
330 AM CDT WED OCT 11 2006

.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPR VORTEX WL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES
RGN TDA AND THEN LINGER INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THEN VORTEX WL
SLOWLY SHIFT NEWD AND ALLOW HEIGHTS TO EDGE UPWARD AS A MORE ZONAL FLOW
SPREADS EWD TOWARD THE AREA. THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN BEYOND THAT
SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT. THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME WL BE FOR THE TROF TO SHIFT
BACK W AS REMPLIFICATION OCCURS NEXT WK.

WIDESPREAD PCPN EVENT WITH THE EVOLVING LARGE SCALE TROF/VORTEX WL CONT
TDA...THEN WL HV PERIODS OF PCPN AS SHRTWVS ROTATG ARND THE UPR LOW PUSH
ACRS THE AREA. TEMPS WL SETTLE TO MUCH BLO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE REST OF
THE WK BEFORE STARTING A SLOW REBOUND DURING THE WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM...TDA/TNGT/THU. THE OVERALL WEATHER SITN IS FAIRLY SIMPLE...
RN TDA WL BE FOLLOWED BY COLD WX AND SOME SNOW...BUT THE DETAILS OF THE
SITN ARE NOT.

MAIN PCPN SHIELD WL SHIFT ACRS THE AREA TDA. SHOULD BE A DECR IN
COVERAGE AND PROBABLY INTENSITY FM SW-NE THIS AFTN AS DRY SLOT DEVELOPS.
ONCE AGAIN WENT WITH CHANGEOVER TO SN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN DEPICTED ON
THE MODELS. THAT MEANS THE SIG PCPN WL BE OVER ACRS MOST OF THE AREA BY
THE TIME THE CHANGE OCCURS. THE ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE THE FAR NW PART
OF THE FCST AREA...WHICH WL BE NR DEVELOPING COMMA HEAD STRUCTURE. THERE
WL ALSO BE A SHORT PERIOD OF FAVORABLE FETCH FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVE BEFORE FLOW BECOMES TOO WLY. KEPT HIGHER
POPS GOING THERE INTO THE EVENING...AND STUCK WITH ACCUMULATIONS SIMILAR
TO PREV FCST.

OTHER THAN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED PCPN IN THE NW PART OF THE FCST AREA
THIS EVENING...KEPT ONLY CHC POPS TNGT AND THU AS ONLY MINOR
DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO BE WORKING ACRS THE RGN. A MUCH MORE SIG SHRTWV
WL BE APPROACHING THE NW PART OF THE AREA THU AFTN...BUT FELT THE MAIN
IMPACT FM THAT FEATURE WOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL THU NGT.

FOR TDA...STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO HRLY TEMPS GRIDS FM PREV FCST THOUGH DID
MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND RUC 2M TEMPS. FOR TNGT...
BRISK WINDS WL PROMOTE STG MIXING OF THE LOW-LEVELS...SO READINGS MAY
NOT PLUMMET WAY BLO FREEZING. STILL...FZG TEMPS LOOK LIKELY ACRS MOST OF
THE AREA. DOOR COUNTY STILL A QUESTION AS STRONGER WINDS THERE AND THE
WARM WATERS OF THE BAY MAY YIELD MINS ARND FREEZING. CONTD FREEZE WATCH
AND WL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO SEE HOW TEMPS RESPOND TDA BEFORE DECIDING
ON WHETHER OR NOT A FREEZE WARNING WL BE NEEDED THERE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING WL BE WK AS SRN STREAM
SFC WV LIFTS NEWD AND MERGES INTO STG COLD FRONT DRIVING EWD ACRS THE
AREA. EXPECT A RAPID INCR IN GRADIENT AND WINDS THIS AFTN AS SFC LOW
STARTS TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY NE OF THE SOO. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WL TAKE A BIT
LONGER TO PICK UP IN THE NE PART OF THE STATE...DOOR COUNTY SHOULD
EVENTUALLY SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS AS THE BAY DESTABILIZES THE LOW-
LEVELS AND HELPS MIX STRONGER WINDS DOWN TO THE SFC. A CONSENSUS OF THE
MODELS SEEMED FOR 850 MB WINDS IN THE AREA TO BE 30-35 KTS TNGT...AND
THEN INCR TO 35-40 KTS THU. GIVEN THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE BAY
THROUGHOUT AND THE CAA TNGT...THOSE WINDS SHOULD EASILY MIX TO THE SFC.
WL POST A WIND ADVISORY FOR TNGT AND THU. 850 MB FLOW INCREASES FURTHER
THU NGT...BUT WL HOLD OFF ON GOING THAT FAR OUT AND ALLOW LATER SHIFTS
TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY IF NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NITE THRU TUESDAY. FORECAST FOCUS ON SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AND WINDS THURSDAY NITE AND FRIDAY.

MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM LINGERING OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK. 850 MB WINDS STAY UP AROUND 45
KNOTS THRU FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE SWINGS THRU NORTHERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY
NITE AND FRIDAY. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ACT TO CONTINUE THE
GALES ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS THRU MIDDAY FRIDAY...THEREFORE WILL
EXTEND THE GALE WARNING UNTIL 18Z FRIDAY. THE SHORTWAVE WILL ENHANCE
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THURSDAY
NITE AND EARLY ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA A BIT AND GO LIKELY ACROSS VILAS COUNTY THURSDAY NITE. THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE WILL STILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE CWA AWAY FROM THE
LAKE SUPERIOR SNOW BELT SO NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED AWAY FROM NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

WINDS WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY FRIDAY NITE AND SATURDAY WITH PRECIP ENDING
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN FRIDAY NITE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER TO THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM TAKES AIM FOR
THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL SEEMS A BIT SLOW IN
MOVING OUT THIS CURRENT SYSTEM WITH A DRY FORECAST THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER THE GFS...DGEX AND ECMWF ARE MORE IN TUNE WITH EACH OTHER AND
BRING THE FIRST PRECIP IN MONDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONT THRU THE AREA ON
MONDAY NITE. THEREFORE WILL STAY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AND LEAN
TOWARDS THE MODELS WITH MORE CONSENSUS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FREEZE WARNING 1 AM TO 10 AM THURSDAY
WIZ038>040-048>050-

FREEZE WATCH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
WIZ022-

WIND ADVISORY 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM THURSDAY
WIZ022-
&&

SKOWRONSKI/KURIMSKI
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
345 PM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-112045-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-
LINCOLN-LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-SOUTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-
MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-
WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
345 PM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY.  AS THE FRONT PASSES...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER
IN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. LIGHT RAIN WILL CHANGE
OVER TO LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
THERE BY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. WINDY AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY IN THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. A FEW INCHES OF SLUSHY WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE OVER
MAINLY THE FAR NORTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR . A
MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY
AND LAKESHORE AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

THIS IS A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM AND IT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

LMZ521-522-541>543-564-112045-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-THE ADJOINING
WISCONSIN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN OUT TO MID-LAKE-
345 PM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GREEN BAY...AND LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
TO SHEBOYGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND WILL INCREASE TO GALE
FORCE BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA DURING
THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE BAY AND LAKE THROUGH
THURSDAY.

EB
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY